United Kingdom
Will voters punish the traditional two main parties — Labour and Conservative — for failing to deliver Brexit by switching to the new political movement fronted by anti-EU MEP Nigel Farage? And while the anti-Brexit vote will be split by the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Change UK, will it add up to more than that of Farage’s Brexit Party?
The big story of the night will be how well the conservatives do in terms of percentage of the vote. If they are around 15%, they are doing better than people expected. If they are around 10%, they are doing worse. If the Greens beat them as might happen, that is an extremely bad sign for them. Whilst the polls say differently, I expect the Lib Dems to beat Labour (narrowly). The Lib Dems have momentum (pun intended) over Labour, who have been consistently been dropping in the polls. If the Brexit party get more than 35%, they will be doing better than expected, yet anything under 30% and many will say that they have really failed based on what was expected. Looking at turnout figures, it seems that the remain voters are coming out, whilst the leave voters are disenfranchised and don't seem to want to come out. This means that the nationwide popular vote will be worse than the overall seats for the Brexit party. They will probably still get as many seats as people expect though because the leave areas and the remain areas are largely concentrated in particular areas. As for areas to look at, the South East and London are where a lot of the remain vote is. To work out who will come second (Labour or Lib Dems), who is winning here will give a strong indication as to who will be the overall second place winner. If the Labour party are holding their ground in the north (These are where the early results come in), they may have a good night. If the Lib Dems are doing very well in the South West (Where I'm from), this could be a good sign for them. Hope my knowledge on the UK helps!
