UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Former President tack50]

Great electoral system.

Weren't you one of those Labourites who opposed the AV referendum to stick it to Clegg?

lol that's a blast from the past. My opposition wasn't merely sticking it to Clegg - but because I don't consider AV whatsoever an improvement - and in fact had concerns it could be worse primarily because a) it encourages please-all centrism moreso than FPTP b) it'd shut the door on change over outrage of unfairness*.

*Minor parties, even with millions of votes, though never large enough to make it to the main challenger, get their voters used as reliable ammunition for the very party they'd deserted. Questions of fairness would be inevitably shut down with voters ability to preference under AV.

I've always been happy with proportional systems however.

I wonder, would 2 round voting (the system France uses) be a good enough replacement for the UK? It keeps most of the good parts from FPTP and allows third parties to actually compete.

[Former President tack50]

Panelbase poll of English-born English-based voters:

Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Scotland leaving the UK, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 43%
No - 35%
DK - 22%

Northern Ireland voted 56% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was Northern Ireland leaving the UK and reunited with the rest of Ireland, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 45%
No - 31%
DK - 24%

Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly 99% to remain in the EU. If part of the price of Brexit was returning Gibraltar to Spain, do you think that would be a price worth paying?
Yes - 38%
No - 37%
DK - 24%

Honestly surprised about Gibraltar. Then again Gibraltar isn't becoming Spanish any time soon even with Brexit so it's a non issue.

The last referendum was apparently 99-1 for staying with the UK while Brexit was 96-4 apparently. Which means that leaving the EU is more popular in Gibraltar than becoming Spanish.

[Former President tack50]

That didn't force May to push the button. She still could have just taken the time to get to a comprehensive withdrawal strategy beforehand, possibly using a general election to try and help her get rid of any obstacles.

What different strategy could she have come to? There is a famous PowerPoint slide presented by Michel Barnier, demonstrating that almost every deal agreed between the EU and a partner would fail with the UK because it breaches a UK red line.

Well, the Canada model (ie a standard trade deal) would work. Except for Northern Ireland of course. I wonder, would a hard border there be that disturbing?

What was the situation pre-Good Friday Agreement? Or pre-1973? Has the border really been open all the time since Ireland became independent?

[Former President tack50]

Actually, I imagine "reverse Greenland" would be the best option for Gibraltar since they voted like 96% in favour of the EU. Then again I do wonder if the Spanish government will accept that.

Right wing parties here are actually claiming that Spain actually gave up too much to the UK regarding Gibraltar.

Why? I don't know.

[Former President tack50]

Spanish minister Josep Borrell says Scots could join EU
Scotland would be accepted into the European Union if it voted for independence in a legal referendum, Spain’s foreign and EU minister has said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spanish-minister-josep-borrell-says-scots-could-join-eu-x38c9fkv5

^^ that's significant, Spain used to be the obstacle to an Independent Scotland EU membership, it's good news for the SNP...

He inmediately clarified with "if Scotland leaves the UK according to British law". Which basically means "if there's an indyref 2 and leave wins we won't oppose Scotland joining".

So, nothing new really. I'm pretty sure that was the position of the Spanish government during indyref 1 anyways.

[Former President tack50]

I've been to Gibraltar. Trust me, it's very British.

Well, I haven't been to Gibraltar, but from what I've heard is basically people with an extremely heavy Andalusian accent  waving the union jack and claiming theyare totally British.

Which they are, but it's still quite funny to me.

Here is some of Gibraltar TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pffC9la_pOc

[Former President tack50]

UK could share sovereignty of Gibraltar with Spain to resolve Brexit row, Lord Hain says
Lord Hain believes he was "right" about an early 2000s plan to share The Rock, as Spain issues a threat over the UK's EU exit.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-could-share-sovereignty-of-gibraltar-with-spain-to-resolve-brexit-row-lord-hain-says-11561016

^^ here here

This will never happen, Gibraltarians are extremely opposed to even co-sovereignty. I would be surprised if it even breaks 10% in a hypothetical referendum.

Honestly best case scenario is that Gibraltar loses its tax heaven status, stops being a British colony and becomes a standard part of the UK just like London or Edinburgh. Raise the necessary taxes, give Gibraltar 1 MP in the House of Commons and the problem is solved.

It would also stop the Spanish argument of "Gibraltar is a colony"

[Former President tack50]

Ah, so I guess Sturgeon is now going full Catalonia? They also did the "win an election explicitly on independence" stunt. They lost it but that didn't stop them anyways

[Former President tack50]

The problem with independence votes is:

1: Eventually, "yes" will win, and then there certainly won't be a referendum to rejoin the UK. That seems kind of unfair.

2: What do you do with say, the 48% of Scots who want to stay in the UK? Force them to move to England? Do the unionist parts of Scotland get the right to secede from the rest of Scotland and join the UK? And if not why not, that seems unfair?

Finally, if you thought Brexit was bad, Scottish (or Welsh I guess) independence would be much, much worse, Scotland is more attached to the UK than the UK is to the EU. (on defense of Scottish secessionists though, at least they had a plan, unlike the Brexiteers)

I see the argument for border polls in Northern Ireland and even that one I very tough to justify for me as per points 1 and 2.

[Former President tack50]

How is the clock ticking for no deal? May is now able to stop Brexit at any time. That would kill her chances at remaining PM, but it would also kill the no deal scenario.

I now think a 2nd referendum (done under AV ironically) might be the best solution, with 3/4 options: No deal, May's deal, Remain, possibly throwing Norway deal as well.

[Former President tack50]

If there's a 2nd Brexit referendum and remain wins now, there's no reason for Scotland to call a 2nd referendum on independence. What would be the point then? Doesn't the SNP try to justify indyref2 on Scotland leaving the EU against its will?

[Former President tack50]

RIP Theresa May premiership (2016-2018)

F

[Former President tack50]

At this point could Labour and the Tories form some sort of national unity government to handle Brexit?

Or at the very least try and negotiate Brexit in a bipartisan way? (what should have been done from the beginning)

[Former President tack50]

Would a secular Northern Ireland be more or less likely to leave the UK and join Ireland?

Also, since the DUP didn't support the GFA (and thus, a soft  border) back in the 90s, why didn't they go for a hard border? A hard border would make things much easier for May and Brexit.

[Former President tack50]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

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Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

[Former President tack50]

Honestly, I'm now for a Brexit without a deal. We've had enough of this circus. The European Union must get back its actual business and not be consumed with this.

I think May's deal was the best deal. Ideally there should have been some sort of bipartisan Labour-Conservative deal, but of course Labour had a huge incentive not to cooperate.

Also, worth noting that the extension has to be ratified by the EU unanimously. I don't think the EU will reject it, but if it does, it's no deal whenever the UK finally drives off the cliff.

[Former President tack50]

So, as of now, is there anything that would get a majority in the commons?

A 2nd referendum?
A no deal Brexit?
Some sort of different Brexit deal? (say, EEA membership or something)

As of now, it seems the future of the UK hinges on the EU.

Seems like the most likely scenario is: UK asks for extension
´
If the extension is not granted (remember, only one country is needed to veto an extension), then the UK leaves with no deal

If the extension is granted, the EU will ask for something in return, whether it is a general election to get things sorted out (or not) or a 2nd referendum.

[Former President tack50]

is there any reason some minor country (say, Lithuania) could not use the EU unanimity requirement to extort billions out of the UK? build us a new port or suffer brexit, etc

Western European countries are too economically connected to the UK, Eastern Europeans historically have a good relationship with the UK because of their mutual focus on free trade. But I've been thinking about this. If this does happen (and it definitely won't) it would be the Lega-M5S government in Italy, which doesn't care too much about the future of the EU and the geopolitical consequences of all this.

Also worth noting that some hardcore Brexiteers are trying to lobby Italy into forcing no deal.

Probably their influence is tiny but worth noting.