UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm starting to think there will actually be a No Deal Brexit Vs Remain referendum (and I'm not looking forward to it).

Is there actually time for a new referendum? How much time would be necessary between announcing a referendum and when a vote could actually be held?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44847404

This says that it was 4 months from when Cameron announced the last referendum until the vote was held. So if it took 4 months again, even if a new referendum were announced today, that would take us up until the March expiry of Article 50.

So how is there time unless something changes? For a referendum to be possible, doesn't the UK either have to cancel (at least temporarily) article 50, or else the EU has to agree to an extension? Would they do so?

And then, after a referendum, there would need to be more time for politicians to respond to the results of the referendum, time for any other negotiations that might need to take place, and time for parliament to vote on anything that might need to be voted on.

So how does the tick-tock of this idea actually work? Is it actually feasible, or just a pipe dream?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

"It took over a year and a half to negotiate, it has the support of 28 governments" - Irish PM Leo Varadkar says that Brexit deal is "the only agreement on the table"

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-46506969

Yeah, the EU doesn't really seem to have any incentive to negotiate any further changes. The UK appears to be is living in a dream world in which it imagines the UK has much more influence and leverage than it actually does. "Wouldn't it be nice if..."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

UK, YouGov poll, European Union membership referendum:
Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal

Remain: 62% (+12)
Leave (May Deal): 38% (-12)

(24% undecided not included)
Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018

Well, the EU is not going to agree to anything significantly different from May's deal, so the choice is either Remain or Crash out. That is what they should be polling.

So the question is, are you feeling lucky?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

UK, YouGov poll, European Union membership referendum:
Scenario: Remain vs. May Deal

Remain: 62% (+12)
Leave (May Deal): 38% (-12)

(24% undecided not included)
Fieldwork: 6-7 December 2018

Well, the EU is not going to agree to anything significantly different from May's deal, so the choice is either Remain or Crash out. That is what they should be polling.

So the question is, are you feeling lucky?

If May's deal is only getting 38%, then the crash faction is getting much lower.

Then it is time for backsies.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does this seem right to those of you in the UK?

Brexit: All About May

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So May has a path she is doggedly pursuing. And if she continues to beat the odds and stay in charge, she will limit the options to her deal versus no deal. Not the the UK public will be happy with that.[/quote]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

May apparently has 52% pledged to support her publicly, but it is a secret ballot so it could be less than that. But on paper at least, she apparently has the votes.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1072905228498948096

This may be an ignorant question, but - Is it possible that she could win this vote internally in the Conservative party, but then lose a vote in the whole of parliament and trigger a snap election, and then resign at the same time as the snap election, so that there would be a leadership election simultaneously with the snap election? If so, I would think that would be quite chaotic for the Conservatives?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

May wins the confidence vote

200 Yes to 117 No

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Brexit: Endgame

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The best choice for the UK policy-wise would be to leave the EU but stay in the common market, Norway-style

That is not an option because it requires Norway to agree, and Norway has rejected it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-eu-angela-merkel-scraps-plan-meeting-juncker-european-council-summit-a8682786.html

no comment.

Wow, DUP is not going to like that...