UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Some typical British upper-class antisemitism right here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/prince-charles-blames-jews-middle-east-turmoil-1986-letter-a8050586.html.

Yeah, the idea that European Jews aren't "real" Jews is odious by any standard, regardless of what one thinks of Zionism.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Nationalize 👏 The 👏 Press 👏

The Express is a lunar right wing pile of horse sh**t anyway, what do you expect?

A three day silence would be notable, but three hour?

Anyway, isn't is against the interest of newspapers to be supportive of the idea of constant 24/7 media immersion?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

May absolutely needs to survive.


If she falls, the anti Brexiter will find a way to cancel the will of the british to leave the EU.

That is what the British voted to do.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It seems EU gave Trump a bunch of trade concessions.

It seems May should adopt some of Trump's tactics as it tries to extricate itself from the EU. If a few hours of ``The Art of the Deal'' can secure something out of Juncker, does that not suggest that May can eventually secure some sort of deal?

All that happened was Trump and Juncker agreed that the existing EU proposals could serve as a "deal". May's not gonna be able to do that even if she wants to.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well Brexit was always rather silly. That said, cheese should always be treated with respect.

https://youtu.be/B3KBuQHHKx0

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One thing people are amazed with online is that women actually want to sleep with Boris Johnson...

"Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac." -- Henry Kissinger

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

[...] as the saying goes: turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

They do if the only other choice is Thanksgiving. (At least here in the U.S. they would.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Britain's gay cake case has come to a conclusion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45789759

It was a narrow decision since this wasn't a wedding cake but a cake expressing political support for legal SSM. Since it was a political cake rather than a personal cake, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Ashers didn't have to bake the cake.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

they need to come clean and admit they have no credible plan and just go for EFTA (Norway option) or join the EEA

The whole point of Brexit was to no longer be a party to the EEA requirement for the free movement of persons.  Neither of those options achieve that and thus neither can happen, at least under the current government.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

^^
The EU offered
EFTA (Norway)
Canada style free trade deal for GB only, while Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union and Single Market,

EFTA members are part of the EEA (except Switzerland), including the Freedom of Movement (which Switzerland agreed to separately.  Plus, the EU has made it clear that an EFTA-lite without Freedom of Movement is a non-starter. A Canada-style deal might happen, tho as you point out it will cause problems for Ireland and it doesn't achieve everything Britain wants out of Brexit.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Audrey, you do realize that the bar chart is hopelessly skewed at the top end for the UK by the fact that The City of London, population 9,401, is one of those second-level regions, don't you? In short, that bar chart is useless as far as conveying information instead of mere data.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Corbyn is right about one thing, Brexit can't be stopped.  Not much else he's right about, but he's right about that as it would take every single EU government to agree to it at this stage and that's not happening.  The genie has left the bottle and it ain't Robin Williams.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.  All I see is an option to extend the deadline past two years if all the EU states agree, and I suppose that there could be a permanent extension, but as I said I don't see all the other EU states, especially those that don't have a lot of economic interaction with the UK agreeing to a return to the status quo.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.

There is a ECJ case currently determining if that is possible.

If it it does so determine, it'll only be because they're taking advantage of the lack of a explicit statement that it can't to insert a new provision not envisaged by the law.  But it probably won't matter.  Even if May falls, I think the Tories will be able to limp along long enuf to keep Corbyn out of Number 10 until after 29 March. Once that happens, it won't be possible under even the most twisted interpretation of Article 50 to undo Brexit.  At that point the UK would have to reapply for admission under Article 49, and I can't possibly see that being approved.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The backstop is there unless and until a new trade deal is negotiated. If you want to leave the backstop, then make a new deal that does not require a hard border in Ireland.

Simples.

Not so simples.  The EU is insisting (and I don't blame them for so insisting) that regardless of whether it's just NI or all of the UK that you can't be part of a borderless trade zone without accepting all of the common market rules.  The whole point of Brexit was to get out of the common market rules (and yet somehow stay in the market according to the nonsense that the Leave campaign put out.)

An intra-UK border just to avaoid an Irish border won't appeal to all that many.

Hard Brexit is Coming.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

EEA is basically EU with no real say but also an exclusion from the agricultural and fisheries policies. It certainly wasn't what was envisaged by those campaigning for Leave, but it may be the nest option available. It also will certainly not be what happens as long as Britain has a Tory government.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hong Kong was essentially forced back into China because a major part of it was only a lease that was due to expire and China was unlikely to renew it. While technically the core portion of Hong Kong could have remained in British hands, it would have been a major upheaval and at the time the West was still thinking that capitalism invariably leads to (classical) liberalism.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

ECJ has ruled we can revoke A50 unilaterally.

RIP No Deal Brexit. A great early Christmas present, made even better when Parliament inevitably compels May to revoke.

Don't go counting chickens yet. All this does is make even more certain the result of Tuesday's vote and that May will be unable to get the EU to make changes for a second attempt to get the deal thru Parliament. Even if Parliament decides to offer up a referendum, there's no guarantee the vote will be Remain.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

ECJ has ruled we can revoke A50 unilaterally.

RIP No Deal Brexit. A great early Christmas present, made even better when Parliament inevitably compels May to revoke.

Don't go counting chickens yet. All this does is make even more certain the result of Tuesday's vote and that May will be unable to get the EU to make changes for a second attempt to get the deal thru Parliament. Even if Parliament decides to offer up a referendum, there's no guarantee the vote will be Remain.

Well, there apparently is no Tuesday vote anymore, so...

So we know the result if it had happened, right?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So what I don't really understand is if the EU doesn't want the UK to leave why would they approve any deal?

Also, I think it would be a slap in the face to all the voters who voted to leave if a second referendum was held.

Why? The voters now have a clear idea of what Brexit will look like. A three-option IRV or Condorcet vote to confirm their opinion now is not a slap in the face but a pat on the back that you trust them to decide.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance now that some Tory MPs resign the whip? (Or whatever the term is for going independent?)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually, that voted probably lowered the chance of a no-deal Brexit, but makes such a thing worse if it happens. What increased was the chance for remain, be it temporary or permanent.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bercow really doesn't like May.

Who does at this point?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If you're still rooting for Corbyn to take power after the last few months, you're either rooting for an antisemitic terror state or a war to prevent one.

Or perhaps you don't base your entire politics around Israel.  Right now on Britain's list of things to worry about, the whole Middle East doesn't even make the Top 100.