MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[NOVA Green]

I don't think this was on as much of a party line vote as you think.  The motion to pass quickly was made by a Republican, and a Democrat representing Native Americans was against the bill because she thought mail-in voting only would discriminate against Native Americans.

Well it was a local Republican Party official who sent a letter to everyone saying they shouldn't approve the bill because it might hurt their chances.

A Republican motioned to get the bill to the floor quickly, and supported it.  A Democrat representing an Indian Reservation opposed it.  And the bill passed the Republican-dominated Montana Senate by a wide margin, where it was sponsored by a Republican. 

I don't think it is as clear cut as your typical Atlas "evil Republicans" meme espoused by the poster I was responding to, Ronnie, thinks.

And I don't think mail-in voting is totally eliminated without the bill.  It just requires that polling places be opened up, too:

That probably just means the current absentee rules. It's not the same as if everyone got a ballot.

And why should everyone be mailed a ballot?  Believe it or not, not everyone in the country has mail delivery at their house, and not everyone has ready access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail.  This is particularly true in rural areas, like Indian Reservations, which is why the Democrat representing one opposed the bill.  Besides, mail gets lost.  In-person votes don't.

Anyone who wants to vote by mail CAN do so in Montana by simply filling out an absentee list request.

I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote.

Actually all residences do have a mailing address....  even those that are homeless have the ability to have registered mailing address, although granted this is much more difficult to obtain for those without friends or family members, especially in areas where there aren't state/local resources available to provide greater self-sufficiency to homeless residents.

Ok--- "Not everybody has access to a mailbox or post office to drop off outgoing mail"

This is an absurd statement, and actually in entirely VbM states there are as many (or more) county ballot drop-off stations, as there are voting locations. So your argument is a bit ridiculous on the surface, since either the cost of putting a stamp on an envelope, vs the cost of gas to drive to a ballot drop-off location (Or voting precinct in the current model) in rural areas, actually works out cheaper for citizens to vote-by-mail than drive.

Just when I thought the arguments against VbM were already totally OTT, now you throw out the old canard of "things get lost in the mail".

Actually, the reality is that in VbM states there are extensive resources available to track one's ballot. State, County, Local Gvt, as well as the US Postal Service are well aware of the importance of not only the legal and statutory requirements regarding VbM and the Right to Vote, but additionally, this is a revenue stream and they practice meticulous standards to ensure that all ballots are captured within the Mail stream and routed to the local County government within an extremely timely fashion.

I have worked in Postal related occupations, and regardless of partisan affiliation, I can tell you that at all the way down the line from the mail carriers, to the mail handlers, not to mention the pretty amazing automated software and oversight that the USPS has, this is definitely NOT a problem for mail-in-ballots.

So apparently your personal dislike of VbM because: " I don't like all mail-in balloting (or non-excuse absentee voting, for that matter).  It ruins election day, turning it into election week or election month.  Things can happen during election month that will cause people to regret their initial vote" is really the root cause of your opinions about VbM.

Sir, in no way will I tarnish your honor reputation and presume to question your intentions regarding VbM for partisan reasons, but quite frankly I do find your statements as to *why* you oppose VbM to be mainly based upon your personal dislike, and then throwing out a bunch of inane supporting reasons to reinforce your preexisting dislike/disdain for that voting practice.

I had many initial doubts about VbM when it was first became the only means to vote in Oregon, but actually the reality is once you kick the tires on the car, take it for a spin around the neighborhood, you'll find that pretty much everyone likes it regardless of Democratic/Republican/Libertarian/Green/ or Purple....

Shoot--- It saves a boatload of time standing in line at a polling place, saves a bunch of gas money in many cases, all for either the cost of a US Stamp....

Regarding the "not being able to change your vote"---- well, that's pretty easy.... most states allow VbM ballots to be processed so long as they are either postmarked within a few days before the election, or you can always drop it off at one of many designated locations in a secure ballot box that is literally picked up the day before the election, or even drive down to the county courthouse and physically deposit it before closing time on election night!

I'm not particularly convinced that this would even really help the Democratic Party in Montana, but what it will do is increase the ability of voters to participate in the political process, and save all of them some time and money in the process.

[NOVA Green]

^Missoula is the second-largest city in the state and a Democratic stronghold.

It's also important to note that thus far turnout levels have been significantly lower than in other population centers in Montana.

Some of this is likely because of later voter turnout among younger college students in the County, than elsewhere.... However, obviously in a Special Election, right towards the end of the School Year, bumping Democratic turnout in Missoula is key towards making this a nail biter, so is the logical place to start.

[NOVA Green]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Cool it, the vote isn't even in and you're overreacting with a blazing hot take.

Sounds like Beet has been "blazing something" which might be current legal in DC but not quite yet in Montana, maybe 2-6 years from now.

Hey--- I love Beet, but this sounded a bit OTT, especially since we haven't yet seen any votes come in yet...

[NOVA Green]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

Sanders might well have "Beet" Trump in '16 in Montana....

Oops, sorry a bit late to the party, but Democratic Populists seem to do quite well in Montana overall, regardless of anything else going on elsewhere in the Country.

[NOVA Green]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

Honestly, no one really knows who will win this race. It's still possible Quist wins it fairly easily.

Gianforte should win the election day vote, but the question is by how much? And how much did Quist win the early vote by? We'll find out soon enough.

Does MT break down Early Voting vs ED Voting like California does for example, or do we just need to read tea leaves based upon early returns?

Reason I'm asking has nothing really to do with any partisan interest in the outcome of this election, but rather how we crunch and understand the numbers and election returns as they roll in from Montana on this election, and future elections as well.  (Good Poly-Sci data for any of you college students out there )

[NOVA Green]

2016 results for Clinton/Trump and Gianforte/Bullock by county and precinct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KOoM0pSyER-F-yDhSw6FdxS30RlFpWeviIbaa5IrVJc/edit#gid=722392603

Thanks Castro!

You rock!!!!

[NOVA Green]

I'm absolutely taken aghast that a Republican can literally bodyslam a reporter and still even have a chance of winning a congressional seat. It's madness.

Well to be fair, it happened after most of the votes were already cast. Since people can't change their vote, that's that.

This.....

[NOVA Green]

So how soon before we can expect to see ED results from the larger "urban" centers of the state?

[NOVA Green]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Until humans are perfected, every candidate will have a lot of baggage.  So, I don't think that explains Quist losing.  Montana Democrats apparently thought he was a strong candidate at the beginning of the race.

In all fairness to Montana Dems, there was never a Primary election to fill this seat....

Hence little vetting and debate within the Party about what candidate would best represent Montana Democratic Party voters.

[NOVA Green]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

Montana's political bench for both sides is notoriously thin and both candidates are immensely flawed. Recruitment isn't to blame for this race's failure on the side of Democrats.

Words of wisdom from Silent Cal----

[NOVA Green]

Running a candidate who supports gun control was a terrible idea.

There are multiple items here, but I strongly doubt that "Gun Control" was a major issue in this election....

If anything Quist ran as an opponent of certain types of Gun Control, but still backing the common sense  items like Universal Background Checks, Closing Gun Show loopholes, and ran AGAINST some of his National Party Platforms (AKA Clinton style Gun crackdowns),

I suspect where he might have taking some authenticity hits on the Gun issue was that he didn't renew his hunting licenses over the past 15 years...

Most gun owners in Montana aren't your "Gun Hoarder" type folks, but if you're going to be portrayed as some type of "hippie musician", it certainly helps on the gun issue to at least have paid your hunting license fees, especially if you're a Native Montanan that occasionally likes to Hunt and Fish, and then add to that, the other stuff, like not paying your taxes or bills to a roofing contractor, and that starts to make his attacks the Carpet Bagger from New Jersey look less authentic once you add these various items up.

[NOVA Green]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Extreme Republican----

I love you man and find you to generally be a fairly straight-shooter type poster, but surely you must admit that this bit of hyberbole (Abortion as a major issue in the '17 MT Special Election) is a bit over the top???

Considering that Montana is actually one of the most Pro-Choice states in the nation, I find it hard to see how this explains tonight's election results.....

I get it you are excited and happy about the outcome and the election of a protegee of one of the most Anti-Choice Political candidates ever elected in the Great State of Montana.... but come on man this wasn't the reason for the election outcome at all.....

[NOVA Green]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

This is the easy answer. Instead of looking at vast swaths of the country disappearing from Democratic control over the course of a decade, and Republican governments in states like Wisconsin and Kansas utterly DECIMATING the livelihoods of their voters, it's far easier to say that either you've just lost one giant group of voters forever and/or that rural folk just decided to become anti-establishment for no apparent reason besides spite. It can't possibly be that Democrats lost their way with rural voters and fell out of touch when it wouldn't support the policies that would alleviate their economic stress.

If the answer for the Democratic Party's future lies in suburban "Panera bread" districts, then it has no future. As soon as Trump's out of office, most likely before or after 2020, these anti-Trump Republicans that are voting for guys like Ossoff are going to go back to voting Republican. That could happen as soon as 2022. Suburban voters don't support liberal policies. They don't even support centrist policies like Obamacare that tried to balance private health insurance with Medicare. Suburban voters have, throughout history, been some of the biggest breeders of fascism in multiple countries including our own.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

Yank2133----

I don't know what type of "rural" area you live in, but from all of the evidence of rural areas that I have seen (Outside of the South and Appalachia perhaps), it's actually pretty clear that one of the major reason why Democratic Presidential fortunes have declined over the past 30 years, is precisely because they shifted to the "Right" on economics, and neglected discussions of issues more specific to rural voters.

Additionally, you have had a few Democratic Presidential candidates (Gore & Clinton) that went way too far above and beyond common sense Gun Regulations (Universal Background Checks & closing Gun Show loopholes) that a majority of Gun owners support (Including all of my extended family) and instead go crazy trying to push additional items as "wedge issues" to win votes in suburbia, while at the same time opening themselves up from the assaults of the NRA (Basically a schill for the Gun MFG Industry these days trying to expand to new markets).

Hell--- If you ever want to come out to Oregon, I'll take you to one of my Son-in-Laws Fathers 4 acre property, and we'll do some target shooting with a few of my other son-in-laws....

They are all Democrats, so maybe you'll shed some of your stereotypes on the "Gun" schtick.

[NOVA Green]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

I've known people are terrible since I was a kid. White Americans have been up to now, and even now, better than most people. You guys elected a N_g__ president. How many countries would that happen? Even Sonia Gandhi had to step down in 2004. You haven't seen Chinese people. Their nationalism is off the charts. But I've always known that the masses are not decent, anywhere.

That's why it's always bothered me that for the past 14 years, since Howard Dean's campaign in 2003, you've always had "progressives" -- whether it was Markos or Thomas Frank back in the day, or Sanders more recently -- attack the Democrats for being too moderate and compromising when they should just "stand up for their values." "I'd rather someone who says what they thinks, even if they lose," they always say. If I stood up for my values I'd be crushed. I've known that since I was 13 years old. That's what I think. I think Bill Clinton knew that too, which is why he did what he did. I feel sorry that so many hate him now. The only thing we can hope for is half a loaf of bread and gradual, incremental change.

Beet--- have you been drinking excessive quantities of Hard A???

Last time I partied in DC back in something like '03, somewhere around the DuPont Circle Neighborhood, it seemed that the bars closed at 3 AM.

Although we are on very different sides when it comes to the past, present, and future of the Democratic Party, it sounds like you are slightly *on tilt* at the moment (Old Texas Hold 'Em/ Poker Expression). Honestly reading this previous post of yours made very little sense at all, even trying to look at it from an objective perspective.

[NOVA Green]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

I've known people are terrible since I was a kid. White Americans have been up to now, and even now, better than most people. You guys elected a N_g__ president. How many countries would that happen? Even Sonia Gandhi had to step down in 2004. You haven't seen Chinese people. Their nationalism is off the charts. But I've always known that the masses are not decent, anywhere.

That's why it's always bothered me that for the past 14 years, since Howard Dean's campaign in 2003, you've always had "progressives" -- whether it was Markos or Thomas Frank back in the day, or Sanders more recently -- attack the Democrats for being too moderate and compromising when they should just "stand up for their values." "I'd rather someone who says what they thinks, even if they lose," they always say. If I stood up for my values I'd be crushed. I've known that since I was 13 years old. That's what I think. I think Bill Clinton knew that too, which is why he did what he did. I feel sorry that so many hate him now. The only thing we can hope for is half a loaf of bread and gradual, incremental change.

Beet--- have you been drinking excessive quantities of Hard A???

Last time I partied in DC back in something like '03, somewhere around the DuPont Circle Neighborhood, it seemed that the bars closed at 3 AM.

Although we are on very different sides when it comes to the past, present, and future of the Democratic Party, it sounds like you are slightly *on tilt* at the moment (Old Texas Hold 'Em/ Poker Expression). Honestly reading this previous post of yours made very little sense at all, even trying to look at it from an objective perspective.

Seriously man, sleep it off.

Sorry Badger---

Not quite sure why you are singling me out, considering unlike many other posters on the thread I have not been drinking , and it is my weekend, since I work in the Factory on everyone else's weekend....

Still, I appreciate your concern as a self-appointed Mod, simply because I happen to have a few disagreements on substantive issues with a fellow poster.

Maybe you should take a look at the past 120+ pages of the thread and single out individual posters simply because they disagree on various political issues as a self appointed mod?

You are out of your element Donny (Big Lebowski link below)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS8X2Qp_6aA