UT-Monmouth: Trump 34%, Clinton 28%, McMullin 20%

[Mr. Morden]

Look at these favorable #s…

fav/unfav %:
McMullin 28/6% for +22%
Clinton 25/69% for -44%
Trump 19/71% for -52%

That’s right.  McMullin’s name recognition is low enough that a whopping 66% of voters have no opinion of him.  But he still pulls in 20% of the vote.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure that McMullin will rise fast enough in time to take it.

If he gets institutional support he will.

It would be unprecedented to shift +14 deficit within a month but UT whites are very different due to Mormonism so you could be right.

McMullin's path is to ride a wave of free media off of his existing poll #s in the state.  Most voters have no idea who he is.  However, the very fact that he's doing so well in these recent polls could generate a bunch of media coverage, which would in turn boost his name recognition, and open up new support.  Surely there are a fair few of those 66% of voters with no opinion of him who would be interested in supporting him if they knew who he was.

[Mr. Morden]

Support by party:

Dems
Clinton 92%
McMullin 5%
Trump 2%
Johnson 1%
Stein 0%

GOP
Trump 55%
McMullin 26%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 29%
Clinton 23%
McMullin 21%
Johnson 16%
Stein 2%

By gender:

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 26%
McMullin 14%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

women:
Clinton 31%
Trump 27%
McMullin 26%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

From the above, looks like McMullin’s base is Republican women.  Republican men might be sticking with Trump, but Republican women are getting McMullined.

McMullin also does better among voters under 50 and voters with a college degree.  Oh, and there’s this:

Mormon:
Trump 38%
McMullin 32%
Clinton 13%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

non-Mormon:
Clinton 50%
Trump 29%
Johnson 9%
McMullin 4%
Stein 1%

McMullin has a net positive favorable number among all demographic groups, even Democrats.  However, 80% of Dems have no opinion of him, while it’s only 60% for Republicans.  Also, 54% of Mormons have no opinion of him, compared to 82% of non-Mormons.