Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP is truely screwed no matter who's the leader. Kev' is less childish than Julia (and, by definition, Abbott), but a leadership spill to take revenge for a previous leadership spill (which is what it is, let's be frank) would ruin any image of credibility for Rudd.

Um... no. Rudd is childish, prickly, ill-mannered ...

http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Gillards-mapping-a-route-but-will-probably-still-be-routed/

http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbot-prepares-for-leadership-showdown/story-e6frfkvr-1226263028640

The party shafted Rudd, not because of the polls, but because they've always hated him, but kept him on for as long as he was popular.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Essentially Rudd is a prick.

Pretty much, yes.

New polling might give Gillard some cause for calm...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-06/nielsen-poll-sees-gillard-overtake-abbott/3812718

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

1) Only Turnbull

John Hewson (Lib leader 1990-1994, also Abbott's former boss and NO great fan) said that as long as Gillard remains PM - Abbott remains relatively secure, which is true.

There's an Australian map thread here somewhere. But I'm sure a-googling would give you what you seek.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's difficult to say...

I think if Rudd regains the leadership (which is about a 50/50 chance), I think Rudd would win the next election if Abbott were leader.

But Turnbull could beat either Gillard or Rudd.

There's a number, more on the ALP-side with opportunities, but each with their own shortcomings.

1. Stephen Smith, Defence Minister - very smart, stable... but a touch boring

2. Greg Combet, Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Minister - again, smart and a very able Minister - but the Union background could be a problem

3. Penny Wong, Finance Minister - would need to shift to the House... probably the single-most impressive Minister in Cabinet... slight problem with being openly gay...

I think Bill Shorten, a oft-mentioned option is far too green.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Interesting.

If the federal election were held tomorrow, which party would win?

The Coalition - but it would be closer than the polls suggest

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I disagree - polls showed that in the 6-7 marginal seats that decided the election Abbott was what prevented a clear Coalition majority in 2010.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-13/gillard-prepared-for-rudd-knifing-weeks-before-spill/3827726

...and this might go down as one of the most spectacular own-goals in Australian political history.

One thing that saved Gillard's reputation after the Rudd removal was the idea that she had no choice, and was forced to take the job.

But the when faced with allegations that she and her backers had been talking about a leadership coup a full fortnight before it happened, with the US State Department being more well-informed than most Government backbenchers (the Australian Ambassador was called in for a meeting with Secretary Clinton). The worst allegation was that staff in her personal office had been writing a leadership take-over speech over that same previous two-week period. When asked in the interview for the program, if she knew that those staff members were writing that speech... she didn't deny she had knowledge.

This with the new Newspoll suggesting the TPP has slipped-back to 55-45 and Abbott surged past Gillard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-used-polling-to-trigger-coup-20120214-1t49l.html

This just gets worse for her...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Gillard had come clean at the beginning that she had been "working to ensure that any change was as smooth as possible" and" undertaking this was not an easy decision, but I had been considering my position for some time, although it was not until today that I made the final decision to address this particular issue head-on"... it would have been different.

She tried to claim that she only decided on the day to challenge and there was the perception she wasn't actively involved in any campaign to remove Rudd... the BIG problem for Gillard is that it feeds into the idea that she's scheming and dishonest... if this isn't the death-blow for her. I don't know what is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK, so she's a competent political assassin. It doesn't change Lab's flatlining.

Um, if an assassin gets so easily caught then they aren't that competent.

The ALP is in a critical-condition, they're rapidly turning into the NSW ALP, basically everything they touched turned to merde.

They need a circuit-breaker and need one now. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Repeal those taxes, repeal cap and trade. Until then, Abbott should not interfere with Lab's serene Controlled Flight Into Terrain.

No, without them the Budget won't hit a surplus until the end of the decade.

They aren't reasons fundamentally, the mining tax is very popular, the carbon tax is on shakier ground, but that's more based on the situation that brought it about, rather than the tax itself (apart from the rampant misinformation and fear campaign)

The ALP's problems are based on
1) the perception that the Government is based on expedience (scrapping the CPRS in April 2010 was the beginning of the end for Rudd)

2) Gillard's ascension to PM was fundamentally tainted as it was seen as undemocratic...

3) The carbon-tax "lie", Gillard saying that she wouldn't bring about a carbon tax ... then she did... I don't think it was an active lie, I think she wouldn't have done it if it weren't a minority government.

4) It basically built the idea that Gillard was untrustworthy and that the Government doesn't really stand for much...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Rudd's biggest mistake was not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010. He had the opportunity before Abbott got his footing to basically take the moral high-ground on climate change... but he, like many if I'm honest, expected Abbott to implode and would be an easy win later in the year.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?

That's the question... there are 3 questions the ALP needs to answer

1. Is this recoverable? regardless of who is leading...

2. Is our hatred of Rudd able to be put aside to manage our disappointment in Gillard?

3. Is there a credible alternative to either Rudd or Gillard?

I think the answers are probably...

1. It is, but this needs to be addressed quickly, or it will become terminal... it's very close

2. I would say Gillard has at least half of the caucus now, Rudd has probably 20% and 30% don't want Gillard, but equally don't want Rudd.

3. There are plausible options... but many of them are not palatable...

My feeling is that a challenge will come, it's in the ALP's interest to not have this instability carry-on into the post-Budget period (mid-May onwards).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What does Laborious do now? Does Gillard run out the clock until the next federal election, or will she be eased out by fellow ALP MP's?

Not sure. What I think will happen....

1. Rudd challenges Gillard.
2. Gillard manages to swat him by because he's hated by the Labor Caucus, but she is weakened in the process.
3. Gillard still doesn't get a surge in the polls.
4. Labor eventually realises that Gillard can't win the next election.
5. They move towards a compromise candidate, probably Swan or Smith.

This destabilisation cannot continue, a spill needs to happen by May... or they risk a NSW-like wipeout.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Perhaps now would be the time to consider democratising the leadership process somewhat?

How does the rank and file feel about Rudd?

I've no idea and that's really not the point.

Personally, i've always found the Australian way of selecting party leaders to be very strange.

Pretty sure Labor are considering reforming it.

They're talking about primaries... which to be fair doesn't exactly fill me with glee.

Rudd's popularity grows the further from Canberra you get. Those of us here 'in the bubble' know what he's really like, hence why the idea of a Rudd return terrifies both the ALP leadership and the Public Service in equal measure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is Rudd's great sin?

He's non-collaborative (ie Ministers often only know of a decision in their portfolio once it's announced) - this is especially bad in the ALP, where the caucus is meant to a filtering process. The other ALP-specific sin is that he's not aligned with one of the factions - which means no one trusts him. But for the public at-large (and those of us in Canberra) - he's very ill-mannered, in private every 3rd word is f*** (or some variation), and his government was marked by a lot of activity, policy made up on the fly and no real pay off.  

Didn't he screw over Peter Garrett by making him take the fall for something he ordered Garrett's ministry to do over Garrett's head or something? Some kind of harebrained insulation scheme that ended up killing people?

Yes, the Insulation Scheme was the dark-side of the generally effective 2009 stimulus package. This is probably the worst example of Rudd saying "oh, I've issued a press release saying your department will do x, make sure it works".

When I was in the public service Garrett was my Minister and he was otherwise a very capable and effective Minister. But Rudd handed him a poison chalice. When unskilled workers were trying to make money out of the billions going out, people died.

So Garrett had the energy-efficiency portfolio taken away and given to Penny Wong.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How's Garrett doing at Education, out of curiosity? I remember being distinctly upset on his behalf because of how unfair it seemed and because of how I knew of his music career from when my mother used to play his cassette tapes in the car when I was little.

The problem is no one really took him seriously. But people forget he's got a law degree, he's very bright and a hard worker. I wrote a speech for him back in May 2010... and he barely changed a word.

He's not doing a bad job, and considering this government he's not being talked about which probably means he's doing fine.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So is an ALP loss pretty much a done deal now?

If things stay like this... yes. But there's plenty that could change.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Right now their numbers are either level with or slightly lower than what they were in 1996. So yes, they've flatlined. In French we call it an ecrasement.

Since there's still 18months before the next likely election... a lot can happen.

If the alternative wasn't Tony Abbott... I'd be all for turfing this Government out... not for what it's done (because I think that's been OK), but because on so many other things it's directionless and gutless.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/war-looms-as-pms-loyalists-turn-on-rudd-20120217-1teic.html

Cabinet Ministers are now circling around Gillard to try to protect her...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is the next election in 2013?

If that's the case, maybe Gillard, or at least ALP, can ride this storm.

Yes, but there may be an election before that.

How would there be an election before that? Would independents have to break away from the Gillard government?

Otherwise, I would think Labor would take all possible precautions to avoid an election before the next scheduled one.

The Independents have stressed that their agreements are not with the Government but with Gillard herself.

One of the biggest disincentives against a successful challenge would be that all of those agreements would need to be re-negotiated and the risk of front-bench resignations ie... an immediate election that could end in an ALP blood-bath.

HOWEVER... there are some key problems.

* Oakeshott and Wilkie are almost guaranteed to lose their seats... it's rumoured that Windsor will retire... so it's not in their interest for an election to be called.

* There's a reason why Abbott has stopped lobbying the Independents and wanting an election... he knows he can't do anything without an majority in his own right, and he would want a friendlier Senate.

So I wonder, if push came to shove... how much of a risk there is of the Independents not siding with Rudd.

Labor is likely to lose the QLD election, probably by a substantial number... which will be a catalyst for change, although there is nothing new, QLD Labor is just reverting to the position they were in before the floods a year ago.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-row-gets-dirty-20120218-1tg9j.html

Wonder how this got out....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-row-gets-dirty-20120218-1tg9j.html

Wonder how this got out....

Definately his Gordon Brown "bigoted woman" moment.

This is much closer to the real Rudd

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK, so he drops a few F-bombs. What national leader doesn't in private? If he'd made a racist remark about the Chinese maybe this would be a BFD. He didn't, so what's the big deal here?

It basically supports that he's ill-mannered and doesn't know how to behave appropriately.

I don't care that he swears in private, I know I do, but there's a reason this got leaked... and it's as much about the ALP caucus than the public... "just remember... this is when he's frustrated... remember what he's like when he's genuinely angry?"