Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can someone explain to me the factional differences between the Labor Right and Left?

They're more blurred than they used to be.

Labor right = old school Labour values, but evolved over the last 30 years to be about the market, while at the same time focusing on protections for working people. Social justice is very important, but with a tendency to be focused on the alleviation of poverty... doesn't like to get entangled in issues like gay rights, environmentalism, worked hard against abortion until the mid 1980s.

Labor left = basically, less interested in the market, and with time for more clearly identified left-wing social issues.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can someone explain to me the factional differences between the Labor Right and Left?

They're more blurred than they used to be.

Labor right = old school Labour values, but evolved over the last 30 years to be about the market, while at the same time focusing on protections for working people. Social justice is very important, but with a tendency to be focused on the alleviation of poverty... doesn't like to get entangled in issues like gay rights, environmentalism, worked hard against abortion until the mid 1980s.

Labor left = basically, less interested in the market, and with time for more clearly identified left-wing social issues.

So, if I'm reading this correctly, the Labor right has a history of affiliation with Catholicism as well while the Labor left was more secular? Everything I've read says that the differences between the two aren't ideological but based off of discreet patronage. Is this true?

As I said, that was more true 20 years ago, but more blurred now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I just had a discussion with a friend who is very knowledgeable on this who tells me that it's about an 80% chance that Gillard will call a leadership spill next Monday (27 January).

He also thinks the Caucus numbers work out like this

103 total...
Rudd: 37
Gillard: 50
Wavering: 16

The Rudd video was definitely leaked for the sake of the Caucus... the story being given by Gillard backers is even more telling. They now saying Rudd left the video in his office when he dumped, it ended up in the hands of someone in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. This indicates the story they're trying to tell, a) Rudd is not only rude and bad-tempered but careless and b) the Public Service, especially the department is terrified of getting Kevin 24/7 back...

It's so appallingly transparent... and probably does more to hurt Gillard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Who is Wavering? Is he a current minister?

- let's call them undecided.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If the margin is too close then she'll be even further damaged, like Thatcher would've been had she won the second ballot in 1990. Then again, both of them are completely radioactive... so it doesn't matter much either way.

No complicated rules like UK Tories in '90, right? 50+1 = WIN, PERIOD?

Yup, as long as you win most votes.

If Gillard calls a spill tomorrow, naturally she'll win.

There can't be a spill today because Parliament isn't sitting and Rudd is in Mexico, the US, the UK and somewhere else this week, lol.

Parliament sits next week, which is why 27-28 February are the earliest options.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-20/crean-calls-for-end-to-leadership-tussle/3839504

And Crean is the hatchet-man.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnit, do you work for any MPs or Senators? You seem to have the inside scoop.

Boy, I envy you.

By the way, I just got a sample of The Cabinet Maker, by Nicole Johnston. The book is about the political journey of an ALP MP, who is trying to salvage his career after losing a leadership battle. Fascinating.

If I were in that deep... I'd probably wouldn't be talking about it.

Canberra is just a small town and everyone talks.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnit, do you work for any MPs or Senators? You seem to have the inside scoop.

Boy, I envy you.

By the way, I just got a sample of The Cabinet Maker, by Nicole Johnston. The book is about the political journey of an ALP MP, who is trying to salvage his career after losing a leadership battle. Fascinating.

If I were in that deep... I'd probably wouldn't be talking about it.

Canberra is just a small town and everyone talks.

Visiting Canberra is my bucket list.

I heard Canberra is relatively small, at least compared to Washington.

By the way, what separates ALP and Greens ideologically? Is it merely focus, or is it a "Old Left, New Left" situation?

It's geographically quite large, but small population spread over a large area.

The Greens have a bit of an internal rift going on between pure environmentalists and the far-left wing. The differences are that they are a lot more overtly left-wing on economics, support  drug legalisation and everything must be done on a basis of environmental sustainability.

The ALP is more of a mix, but generally less left-wing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I support the ALP because of no other options.

I vote Green first preference, but make the ALP #2. Before the Liberals went off the deep-end, I could have supported them, unfortunately the right took over compassionate social policy was replaced with wedge politics and over-liberalisation of the workplace.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Laurie Oakes presents: Simon Crean as compromise candidate.

Crean would just be put up as a sacrificial lamb.

Can Labor hold on at this point?

I still argue the condition is not terminal. It's getting extremely close to it, but there's perhaps 18 months before the next election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also, isn't there a sitcom satirising here relationship with here significant other?

The sitcom was decidedly unfunny. The only thing going for it was the lead character's close resemblance to the Prime Minister - she'd previously done skits impersonating the PM on other shows which were shorter... the humour just couldn't last the distance of a full show dedicated to pretty much the one joke. The first episode wasn't horrendous, the portrayal of the independents were pretty good.

The Hollowmen was a far superior production by the ABC.

I didn't hate At Home With Julia... if I'm honest. I was expecting an utter train-wreck, so my expectations were very low.

The Hollowmen is AWESOME!

Catapulting someone into the Prime Ministry as a 'sacrificial lamb' strikes me as an absolutely terrible idea on pretty much every level.

I concur.

Could anyone explain this to me:

The Liberals are howling over the proposed carbon tax which Gillard apparently promised would not happen
 What would have pushed Gillard into supporting the tax now.

This is a trap that Gillard laid for herself.

She had a policy that would lead to and emissions trading scheme, but she was STUPID in the extreme to make a declarative statement during an election campaign.

I personally don't believe she was lying, when she said "there will be no carbon tax under any Government I lead"... I think she meant it. However, the consequences of minority government forced her hand to make a deal to put A price on carbon. My gut is she was told the ETS conversion would be too complex, having a carbon price in place before a full ETS would get the support of both the Greens and the Independents.

.... it should also be noted that Tony Abbott supported a carbon tax in 2009 as an alternative the Rudd CPRS ETS... which shows he's about opposing whatever the Government is doing. Considering the desperation Abbott was displaying to get the Independents after the 2010 election... I would guarantee there would be a true market mechanism on carbon... as opposed to the government paying the polluters to not do it (the Coalition's policy).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/why-is-this-man-so-popular-and-how-long-can-it-last/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can I ask a cultural question?

In the United States, it is not unusual for a child to answer, if asked about what he wants to be when he grows up, that he wants to be president. Even with our general cynicism of politics, there are many past and present politicians we idolize.

Do children in Australia, maybe you for example, Polnut, ever aspire to become Prime Minister. To put it another way, is aspiring to political leadership, such as the premiership, something encouraged among Australia's young people?

No... well it's not "normal".

I did... but I wasn't normal.

We certainly don't put politicians on any kind of pedestal, doesn't mean we don't appreciate or like them... a few PMs have been genuinely liked, like Bob Hawke, even Rudd for a time - others are respected like Howard, Menzies, Curtin... but most happen to be the standard barer of the policies that have the most support.

We don't 'fetishise' the Premiership.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With Kevin Rudd's resignation today and many of his comments... I would say it's almost certain he will challenge for the leadership on Monday/Tuesday next week.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gillard will tomorrow announce a leadership spill on Monday morning.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-colleagues-sick-of-rudd-swan-20120222-1to9i.html

Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeesus Wayne.

This could backfire.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

I hate to use anecdotal evidence, but I've got a friend whose mother worked for him and he was allegedly a highly abusive, profane, and unsympathetic boss.

It's fine when the anecdotal evidence matches up with a TON of it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What would happen to he government if Rudd defeats Gillard? Since the independents have a special agreement with Gillard, and not the ALP, would that force an election?

No, because they have other reasons not to force dissolution. Such as losing their seats. More generally, there would be a Cabinet shuffle if Rudd won- but regardless of who wins it doesn't change the flatlined trajectory.

I only partially agree... I think Rudd will push the primary vote up and there are opportunities for circuit-breakers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gillard is a member of the Victorian ALP left. Part of Rudd's problem was that he's not a member of a faction, so it means he has no natural base of support.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As I said previously, the factional divides used to be far more stark - there are some basic differences (for example, Gillard is the only member of the left faction opposed (publicly) to gay marriage. The right have a stronger alligience to the Union movement (but there are left-faction members from a union background).

But in day-to-day practice it's largely an tool of organisation.

I suggested that Kevin Rudd was a prick on reddit and was met with angry responses from Australians (one called me a c_nt). I don't understand how this guy is inspiring. He comes off as an accountant or a low-level bureaucratic official.

Rudd was an effective campaigner in 2007. The thing is the further away from Rudd you are, the better your view is. Those of us in 'the bubble' knew years ago how unpleasant he could be and that was the real reason he was removed.

Because the coup leaders didn't explain that properly, there are still people who don't understand why he was removed... and believe he was hardly done by.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think that represents something about the nature of the ALP.

Much like UK Labour and the US Democrats, it's often hard to find what many in Europe and people who consider themselves left-wing, actual left-wing policies. Even those like Gillard who are of the left when they come into power, believe they need to shift to the right faction to be taken seriously by the public.

As I said previously, the connection of pro-union = left.... is not the universal case in the ALP.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This isn't ideology (even Chretien/Martin had some ideological contrast, speaking as a Canuck) but pure personality. Dunno if Hawke-Keating was similar.

Hawke/Keating was certainly a positive working relationship early on... but when Hawke decided to contest the 1990 election (which the ALP *just* won), Keating used that as a weapon against Hawke and also the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirribilli_Agreement_of_1988... then it became about pure bitterness and personality.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Last Newspoll before the leadership ballot.

Preferred Prime Minister
Gillard: 36% - down 1%
Abbott: 38% - down 2%

Approval rating
Gillard: 26% - down 6%
Abbott: 31% - down 5%

... so the basic message is that the Australian people don't like either option... however...

Primary vote

ALP: 35% - up 3%
Coalition: 45% - down 1%

Two-party preferred

ALP: 47% - up 2%
Coalition: 53% - down 2%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Were Rudd to return to power, I don't know how that would help the ALP's chances in the next election

As I wrote on my facebook in response to a question.

The ALP are in this position due to one reason, and one reason alone.

They underestimated Tony Abbott.

That led to:
a) Rudd not going for a double-dissolution in February 2010 (despite having 2 triggers), before Abbott was able to gain traction;

b) By scrapping the CPRS, under pressure from both internal and external forces, it removed the moral centre of the Government and showed that Rudd had no faith in his policy... a gift to Abbott;

c) Because they didn't address Abbott's lies and misdirection and did not provide a strong contrast to him, the Government ceded the battle ground to the coalition. Instead of standing up for Labor values they allowed Abbott to dictate the terms, and the Greens to suck up their primary vote.

Assuming the Prime Minister wins the ballot, as everyone is expecting, it's time to roll up the sleeves and bury Tony Abbott, and show him as the negative demagogue he is.