Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Sorenroy]

I plan on making a longer post on this when I have more time (i.e.: after the my semester's finals), but I think that there are reasons a conservative Alabaman's would vote for Roy Moore.

Best case scenario, Roy Moore is found innocent of all charges or (more likely) is forced to resign and send the district back to square one for another special election. Worse case scenario, Moore takes his seat and is a conservative voice for Alabama, albeit a sleazy one and then is easily primaried when his regular election comes up.

Compare this to Jones winning and you have someone that does not represent Alabamans quite as much and has a much better chance of becoming intrenched by swinging to a more moderate point of view.

Even if it reflects negatively on the Republican Party as a whole, there was a good chance that Republican's would lose their three chamber majority anyway come 2018. Better to have the strongest possible majority now and get as much passed while you can then weaken your Congress now in hopes of having a less awful loss come next year.


In terms of predicting the race, I am currently leaning towards a modest Moore victory. I think the actual vote could be anywhere from Jones by three points to Moore by four (trying to keep the range fairly small here, it obviously could be way off). My prediction will probably change if more polls come out this weekend/Monday.

Roy Moore (R) — 50%
Doug Jones (D) — 48%
Write-Ins — 2%

[Sorenroy]

Everyone but Ted Kennedy. Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him. Bull! I holding you responsible.

Seeing as the last time Kennedy pursued federal office was 1980, I think it's fair to assume Cal and the others on this forum played no part in his failed election bid. In fact, about 35% of the current national electorate wasn't even born when he ran and 2/3 of the electorate were younger than 18^[1]. Add to that that less than 6% of people eligible to vote in 1960 voted for him and you would be lucky to find a single person on Atlas that voted Kennedy for president^[2][3].

[Sorenroy]

More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

The updated numbers seem to be nothing but good news for Jones. I put down the specific changes from the last poll's numbers here, but Moore only made gains on his margin is their "Standard + 2016 Vote Weights; Weighted by Self-Reported Voting" model. Everything else shows Jones margin gains of up to 14 points. What is causing such a shift towards Jones in this last week? What happened this past week that's pushing Jones over the edge?