I'd say it's a tossup at this point. The poll differences are about the same as how it was in the 2016 presidential election, and we know what happened there. If Jones can get the minority turnout up high enough he has a very, very good chance.
Betting on disproportionate minority turnout in a special election is like throwing your entire savings at the lottery. Historically, they are almost always under-represented relative to general elections. There's always a first time I guess!
I'd say it's a tossup, but not because of minority turnout.
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