Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

[Sestak]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

This is Trump we're talking about. I don't think he does. If he realizes it's numerially impossible to win the nomination he'd say it's rigged and run as an indy.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Five: Preview of the 2019 Gubernatorial Elections

Kentucky

Governor and Presidential Candidate Matt Bevin is retiring. Republican Congressman Tom Massie is the leading candidate to replace the governor. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Jenean M. Hampton in the primary. He will face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general election. Grimes beat back former Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic Primary. Massie leads Grimes 49% to 46%, with the narrow margin attributing to his predecessor's controversial nature. Still, President Biden and former President Obama campaigned on behalf of Grimes in the weeks prior

Rating: Tossup

Mississippi

Governor Phil Bryant is term limited, and can not seek another term in office. Republican Tate Reeves is the leading candidate to replace him. He is facing Democratic Former Governor Ray Mabus in the general election. Both where unopposed in their respective primaries.Former President Obama has been actively campaigning for Mabus ahead of the November Election. A top tier Democratic challenger has some national democrats hopeful that they can pull off an upset win, though Reeves leads polling 51 to 44%.

Rating: Lean Republican

Louisiana

Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is seeking re-election to another term. Louisiana uses Jungle primaries, and there are five candidates running. For the Democrats, Governor Bel Edwards is challenged by former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu. The Republicans running are State Attorney General Jeff Landry and U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy.  The only independent in the race is businessman John Georges. Polling has the incumbent Governor leading the primary with 40% of the vote, followed in second by Senator Kennedy with 23%. Mayor Landrieu is in third with 18% of the vote. The possibility of two democratic candidates in the run off has many Democrats excited about the election.

Rating: Lean Democratic

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely

We shall see......

This is Trump we're talking about. I don't think he does. If he realizes it's numerially impossible to win the nomination he'd say it's rigged and run as an indy.

We shall see.....

[Edgeofnight]

Polling: Kander Surges in Iowa as Booker overtakes Warren nationwide. Cruz reclaims lead nationally as Trump overtakes Kasich in New Hampshire.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 21%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 21%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 5%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Vice President Warren -- 12%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 11%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 10%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

Nevada Democratic Caucus -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 15%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

South Carolina Democratic Primary -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 22%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 5%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 15%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 6%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 15%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 9%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 5%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 4%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 1%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 0%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 21%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 19%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 8%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 6%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 4%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 1%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

South Carolina Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 32%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 16%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 11%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 8%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 2%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

Nevada Republican Caucus-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 15%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 8%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 21%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

[WestVegeta]

 I don't wanna be that guy, but it's Kirsten Gillibrand, not Elizabeth.

[Edgeofnight]

So the polling that went up just now was meant to go up after these next two parts, but since its already been up for a few hours, I'm just gonna leave it there.


Part Six: Second Republican Debate leaves Trump behind.

The second Republican Presidential Debate of 2020 was held on September in Des Moines, Iowa, on CNN. One again, the debate was tiered, splitting the bottom Six remaining candidates from the top six candidates. In the bottom six, Nikki Haley, Charlie Baker, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Matt Bevin, and Scott Walker faced off. Once again, Paul declined the invitation to debate in the undercard debate, and requested that he be placed in the top tier. Once again, his request was denied.

The main event was set to consist of Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, and Marco Rubio. However, the day before the debate, Trump tweeted:

And with that, the most bombastic of the Republican candidates was out of the debate. Candidates took the chance to shine in the spotlight absent Trump.

The issues of the debate were described to be the “hot button” issues of the day. Gerrymandering, Voter ID laws, Health Care, Tax Reform,The resurgence of ISIS, and homegrown terrorism.

Kasich and Cruz, the leading candidates, came out on top in the debate. Kasich gave detailed answers and policy plans, but still got in jabs at Senators Cruz and Sasse. Senator Cruz sought to fill the personality void established by Trump’s exit, and attacked the other candidates on their personality traits, as well as their policy. The biggest loser of the night was Marco Rubio. Once a rising star of the party, Rubio was mostly ignored by the other candidates on stage. He tried to establish a presence on the healthcare debate, but was overshadowed by Governors Kasich and Abbott. Ben Sasse and Greg Abbott had a neutral performance, with Abbot presenting his plan for a partial repeal/ total replacement of Obamacare, but falling flat on the terrorism debate. Sasse showcased strong foreign policy credentials, but failed to give an actual answer to the question of Tax Reform.  

In the undercard debate, Governor Matt Bevin filled the role of Donald Trump. Personality attacks, attacks on immigrants, foreigners, etc. Bevin embraced both Donald Trump and the Tea Party, and his performance captured media attention for this dual role. Notable performances also came from Governor Baker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley. The biggest losers of the night were Scott Walker and Carly Fiorina. Fiorina's performance came across as unprepared and unready, while Walker simply went unnoticed most of the night. He was attacked the least amount of any candidate on stage, giving him comparatively less time for rebuttal and less speaking time as a whole.

Between the Second and Third set of debates, Carly Fiorina and Greg Abbott would suspend their campaigns. Both endorsed Senator Cruz, though Governor Abbott’s withdrawal came as a shock, who had a strong debate performance and had been climbing in the polls, he told his supporters that there wasn’t a path to victory for him anymore.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Seven: Kander and Booker win big in second Democratic Debates.




Once again, the Democrats split the debate in two based on random assignment. The first debate featured Maggie Hassan, Tulsi Gabbard, Martin O’Malley, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand. The second debate featured Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jason Kander, and Elizabeth Warren.

The key issues of each debate where international trade, Humanitarian aid, gun control, green energy, Welfare Spending and government spending.

In the first debate, Senators Booker and Gillibrand dominated the night. The two rising Democratic stars clashed frequently, and dominated the conversation during and after the debate. The two drew comparisons to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton respectively. Booker made gun control his pet issue, and focused on the harms of rampant gun violence, and highlighted his plan to reduce the number of firearms on the street. While Booker’s debate strategy was to focus heavily on one issue, Gillibrand highlighted a wider platform. Focusing on Green Energy and Government spending, Gillibrand also adopted a Sanders-eq position on international trade. Senator Maggie Hassan also gave a strong performance, though she was overshadowed by aforementioned candidates. Tulsi Gabbard, despite her strong performance in the first debate, failed to establish her presence on stage. When she finally got the spotlight on a question regarding Humanitarian Aid to African countries, she gave an answer related to welfare spending. When the moderators asked for clarification, she then answered the original question, ignoring her previous answer. Most voters felt that Gabbard wasn’t paying attention, and didn’t care about the debate. While O’Malley didn’t suffer quite a severe gaffe, one Washington Post columnist described the former Secretary’s performance as “sleep inducing.” He simply failed to capture the same attention as the other candidates.

In the second debate, Jason Kander benefited from another strong performance. He provided an impassioned defense of commonsense Gun Control and expanding green energy. He spoke against free trade, and talked about reforming humanitarian aid to prevent “subsidizing dictatorships.”  Fmr. Secretary Castro bounced back after his weak performance in the first debate, and detailed his plan for expanding healthcare access, while also expanding infrastructure spending to fix America's roads and increase economic efficiency. Harris, Hickenlooper and Warren’s performances were bland, and while they didn’t suffer the same type of gaffes that Gabbard, they simply didn’t attract attention that Kander and Castro did.

Between this debate and the next, fmr. Governor Hickenlooper and fmr. Secretary O’Malley suspended their campaigns. Both offered their endorsements to Vice President Warren.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kander opposing free trade
Which of the dem candidates support free trade?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Let's go Jason!!!

[Edgeofnight]

Kander opposing free trade
Which of the dem candidates support free trade?

To put it on a spectrum, of who is the most against free trade to the most in favor of free trade;

Gabbard, Warren, Gillibrand, Kander, Hassan, Castro, Booker.

Its also worth noting that, at this point, the Democratic Base is somewhat split on the issue.

Democratic Primary Poll: Position on Free Trade
In Favor of: 45%
In opposition of: 39%
No Opinion/Neutral: 16%

When we cover the 2016 election and the Biden admin, the issue of Free Trade will become fairly galvanized in the Democratic base. So while a plurality of voters are in favor of Free trade, a large number of those opposed are strongly opposed.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kander opposing free trade
Which of the dem candidates support free trade?

To put it on a spectrum, of who is the most against free trade to the most in favor of free trade;

Gabbard, Warren, Gillibrand, Kander, Hassan, Castro, Booker.

Its also worth noting that, at this point, the Democratic Base is somewhat split on the issue.

Democratic Primary Poll: Position on Free Trade
In Favor of: 45%
In opposition of: 39%
No Opinion/Neutral: 16%

When we cover the 2016 election and the Biden admin, the issue of Free Trade will become fairly galvanized in the Democratic base. So while a plurality of voters are in favor of Free trade, a large number of those opposed are strongly opposed.

Oh, go Kander then! I'd just hope that he listens to sense and supports a policy of free trade rather than succumbing to populist protectionism as President

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Democrats Square off in First 2016 Debate



The Democratic Party's first presidential debate ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was held on October 13, 2015, at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada.
.Analysis on the debate was largely mixed regarding who, between the top three candidates, won. Some analysts from CNN and BBC viewed Clinton as the winner, while other publications such as The Washington Post and The Chicago Tribune viewed Biden as the Winner and the Fox News Channel claimed that Sanders was the winner. Conversely, Chafee, O'Malley and Webb were all widely regarded as the losers. The three failed to be notice on a stage, and when they did, they didn’t leave a lasting impression.

The first major issue of the debate was healthcare. Sanders won big on this debate, with his single payer plan capturing the imagination of voters and catching fire among young voters. Biden seemingly changed his positions. He voiced support for single payer “if a plan came in front of him to pay for it.” Senator Clinton expressed similar positions, but added in extra caution.

The next key focus of the debate was the Supreme Court vacancy. Both Sanders and Clinton avoided committing anyone to nomination, however, Sanders did commit to finding the most progressive justice qualified. This, combined with comments made prior to the debate about Merrick Garland, led many to correctly believe Sanders would not nominate Garland. Sanders confirmed this the following day in an interview, but declined to state who he would nominate. Clinton danced around the issue. Biden however, broke with the other two candidates, and expressed strong support for Merrick Garland.

Other issues covered with less focus was college affordability, foreign policy, and electability. Biden didn’t suffer from his trademark slippery lipped nature, and came across as the most “genuine” and “likeable” among candidates. Sanders performance resonated among young voters. Clinton, in general, appeared the weakest among the three candidates.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Eight: The Democrats "Endorsement Primary"

Vice President Elizabeth Warren



Warren has captured the support of several establishment and progressive Democrats. She has easily the most endorsements of any of her Democratic Rivals. The most notable comes from Senator and former Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders, the progressive independent from Vermont. She has also received the support of Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Russ Feingold (D-WI), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). She has also received the support of numerous Representatives, most notably Peter Welch (D-VT) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). She also has the support of almost the entire current congressional delegation in Massachusetts (The only one withholding is Congressman Lynch). The only sitting Governor to have endorsed her is Governor Steve Bullock of Montana Rounding off her endorsements are former Secretary of State John Kerry and former Attorney General Loretta Lynch. Her progressive credentials and close ties to the Democratic establishment help her in this department. She has also recived the support of her former Presidential Rivals John Hickenlooper and Martin O’Malley

Senator Cory Booker



The rising star has captured his own slate of impressive endorsements. Civil rights leader and congressman John Lewis (D-GA) has been the most noticeable, but he has also received the home state support of Governors Phil Murphy (D-NJ) and the entire Democratic congressional delegation from New Jersey. Other notable endorsements include Senators Gary Peters (D-MI), Ron Wyden (D-OR), and Jack Reed (D-RI). A few other notable endorsements come from former Representative and current Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) and suprisngly former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

Senator Kamala Harris



Kamala Harris lacks any major endorsements from outside of her home state. However, the entire congressional delegation, and all statewide office holders, have endorsed their favorite daughter. California, being much of the Democratic power base,  gives Harris a massive fundraising springboard and a vast well of support, even if her nationwide support is lacking compared to the other candidates.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand



Much like Senator Harris, Senator Gillibrand has struggled to obtain high profile endorsements from outside her home state. Unlike Harris, she has had some sucesess. She has the endorsement of the entire New York Democratic Congressional delegation, except for two Representatives. This includes Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. Outside of her home state, the two most high profile endorsements she has obtained are Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH).

Senator Jason Kander


.
Kander’s endorsements have been weaker. The most high profile endorsements have come from Former Presidential candidate Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Senator Jon Tester (D-MN). Also on that list is former Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Rounding out his endorsement list is Congressmen Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Greg Stanton (D-AZ), and Dave Loebsack (D-IA). He also has the backing of the Missouri Democratic congressional delegation.

Senator Maggie Hassan



While the New Hampshire Democratic party is firmly behind her, that’s basically it. She does have the support of Illinois Attorney General Pat Quinn, but beyond that she boasts no endorsements outside of the small state of New Hampshire.

Fmr. Secretary Julian Castro



The former HUD secretary boasts two major endorsements. The first comes from his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX). The second, and stranger, comes from former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY).

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard



The Hawaii Congresswoman has no major endorsements. The most high profile endorsement, if it can be called that, is from former Ohio state Senator and Current President of Our Revolution Nina Turner (D-OH). However, the organization as a whole remains split on which candidate to back, with many supporting Gabbard and many supporting Warren.


Right now, Republican endorsements are spread much thinner, so that part will come later after the Iowa Caucus

[Edgeofnight]

Part Nine:Final Pre Iowa Mega Update
Since it has been a while, and the TL is starting to stagnate, we are gonna cover the last Four Months before Iowa in this one, long part.


For the third debate, both parties found their fields of qualified candidates to be small enough for a single stage for each. For the Republicans, former Governor Mike Huckabee was polling too low to qualify for the debate, and suspended his campaign shortly after the debate. Senator Rand Paul barely made the cut, and participated in his first debate of the 2020 presidential election. Paul’s sudden reappearance did not go unnoticed, and he quickly became one of the main punching bags of the night. Already polling low, the poor performance combined with the constant attacks from all on the stage, the Psuedo-Libertarian was universally seen as the biggest loser of the night. He would finally put his campaign out of its misery the week following the debate. The next biggest loser of the night was Governor Charlie Baker. Although his policy wonk nature makes him popular in his home state, it doesn’t translate well to primary voters in Iowa and across the nation. Combine this with the moderate governor’s unpopular stances (among Republicans) regarding abortion and climate change, and that was enough to put his campaign teetering on the edge. Still, the Governor was convinced that he could sway voters to his side, and remained in the race despite the poor performance. Baker’s polar opposite was the next biggest loser, Governor Matt Bevin. Voters could barley stomach one Trump-esq candidate, and that was a space firmly occupied by the man himself. Bevin’s attempts to out-Trump Trump didn’t go over well with voters, and the nominees prior failures only reinforced that. He would suspend his campaign in the face of low polling numbers and a lack of campaign money, and mount a write-in campaign for a second term in his Governor’s office. In terms of who won the debate, the answer was fairly mixed. The Washington Post, New York Times, and FOX News analysts agreed that the winners of the debate where Haley, Sasse, and Trump. Following his absence in the second debate, Trump struck back with a vengeance, unleashing attacks on every candidate who dared to cross him. He seemed angrier than ever, and his supporters loved it. However, his detractors became more solidified in their hatred of him. Senator Sasse made this clear. He focused his attacks on the Donald and President Biden, and varied his attacks on the two. With Trump, he focused an attack on the candidates persona, while Biden he launched an attack focused solely on the President’s record. Haley followed a similar strategy to the later. She tended to ignore the squabbling of the other candidates on stage, and focused her attacks on the sitting president. She also gained attention for being the last woman in the race, something that would boost her name recognition in the media.


For the democrats, the eight remaining candidates all attempted to score points by attacking front runner Elizabeth Warren. But many also danced around her presence on stage. To attack her, in many ways, was to attack President Biden, who remained a popular and unifying figure among Democrats. The big winners of the night where the usual group. Booker and Kander won points for their youth and charisma, Warren remained the favorite of many progressives. Gillibrand and Harris, central figures in the fight against Sexual Harassment in Washington, and their records on the issue boosted their stances among women voters, but both still trailed the Vice President, though Gillibrand particularly had been gaining. The others were ultimately just there. Castro had charisma, but with Booker and Kander already eating up most of the limelight, that alone wasn’t enough to net him points, Hassan faded into the background early on, and Gabbard simply didn’t have enough supporters to begin with. She lacked a base to run on, as progressives favored the Vice President over the Congresswoman. Ultimately, after failing to make an impression at the third debate, and in an attempt to piece her political career back together, Gabbard withdrew from the race, and ran for re-election to her house seat.  Castro, in an attempt to save grace, also withdrew, both of them backing Warren.
Both parties would hold two more debates between September, when the third debates were held, and February, when the Iowa Caucus would take place. Neither brought changes in the field of candidates, and neither had any particularly notable one liners or gaffes. Haley and Trump again won the fourth debate, while Sasse and Cruz were viewed as the winners of the fifth debate. On the democratic side, Kander and Booker continued to impress, while Warren attempted to make up lost ground.

In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes pulled off a narrow, upset victory, in the three way race for Governor. Incumbent Governor Matt Bevin ran as a write in candidate, while the official Republican nominee was Congressman Tom Massie.Grimes won with a margin of 1.2%. A Recount was filed, but denied by a Kentucky judge.

[/img]

In Louisiana, Incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards faced several opponents in the State’s Jungle Primary. He prevailed in the first round with 40% of the vote, and second place was won by U.S. Senator John Neely Kennedy with 22% of the vote, beating out third place candidate Former Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who took 16% of the vote. In the second round of voting, Bel Edwards soundly defeated Kennedy by a margin of 11.6%

In Mississippi, Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves defeated former Governor Ray Mabus soundly. Mabus, being considered one of the Democrats’ top recruits, attracted national attention and support, but ultimately fell short by a margin of 15.1%

Polling: In final poll before Iowa, Cruz continues to lead narrowly in Iowa, New Hampshire Tie between Kasich, Trump, and Haley leads comfortably in South Carolina. Warren still tied with Kander in Iowa, Hassan leads narrowly in her home state, and Booker looms large in South Carolina. Nationwide, Cruz and Trump tied as Kasich slumps. Warren struggles to convince voters of her electability against charismatic challengers.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- February 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 22%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 20%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 6%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

South Carolina Democratic Primary -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 32%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 25%
• Vice President Warren -- 13%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 25%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 16%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 13%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

Iowa Republican Caucus-- February 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 12%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 3%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  23%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 23%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 15%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary-- February 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 35%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 12%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 7%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  5%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 15%

National Republican Primary-- September 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 20%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 20%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 15%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 7%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Next Part: Iowa Democratic Caucus Results, 2016.

Also, I don't know if every election will have infoboxes and district maps, it depends on how much work they will be for the other elections.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Wow if Jason wins Iowa.....

[Edgeofnight]

Wow if Jason wins Iowa.....

Within the context of the timeline, many pundits agree that Kander winning Iowa could be a deathblow to the Warren Campaign. She is considered unlikely to win in New Hampshire (although its possible) and Nevada, while Booker and Harris are dominating the South Carolina polling.

[Edgeofnight]

SPECIAL: IOWA '16

All nationwide, and many internationally, where focused on the Hawkeye state. Polling conducted before indicated that for both parties, the caucus would be a three (wo)man race. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio battled for the soul of the Republican Party. A similar struggle was ongoing on the Democratic side. Although officially a four man race, only three candidates were considered serious contenders. Vice President Biden, Former Secretary of State Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders were locked in a tight three way race in Iowa.

While Republicans knew their winner at a little after 10, Democrats were still stuck in a dead heat after polls closing.

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 10PM:

Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton -- 34.03%
Vice President Joe Biden -- 33.65%
Senator Bernie Sanders -- 32.32%

In the Sanders camp, the result proved that the progressive Senator was still in the race. However, the Biden camp had focused heavily on Iowa, and while the state wasn’t called yet, the prospect of losing the Hawkeye state pu the campaign on edge, and without it, many in the Biden inner circle felt the nomination was out of reach. By 11 at night, things seemed to be turning around. And at 11:26PM, the race would finally be called

Iowa Democratic Caucus, 11:26PM:

✓ Vice President Joe Biden -- 34.92%
Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton -- 33.93%
Senator Bernie Sanders -- 31.40%

Clinton congratulated Biden at 11:35PM. She gave a brief, 6 minute speech, thanking her supporters and also congratulating Senator Sanders. Biden gave a speech shortly after, giving a standard victory speech. While many high level democrats remained neutral in public, behind closed doors, there was a consensus that following the results of Iowa, the Democrats were heading towards a long nomination process.

Each Candidate claimed victory in some way. Sanders used the results to argue that he was still in contention for the nomination, despite lacking the money or establishment connections of the other candidates. Clinton claimed “momentum”, saying that she overperformed expectations (a dubious claim at best), while Biden had the outright victory on his side. The Biden Campaign also claimed momentum, having closed a 10 point polling gap in the two weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus. Still, New Hampshire would remain a critical proving ground for all three of the candidates. The one candidate who could not claim victory was Governor O’Malley. O’Malley suspended his campaign following an abysmal performance, taking only .2% of the vote. He offered his support, what little he had, to Vice President Biden following his withdrawal.

For the candidates remaining in the race, all eyes shifted to the Granite State...

[Edgeofnight]

Part Ten: IOWA 2020

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 29.72% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 29.50% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15.52% -- 9 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11.34% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Cory Booker -- 7.64% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6.28% -- 0 Delegates

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.56% -- 12 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 20.32% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 18.17% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 6.97% -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 6.53% -- 2 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6.02% - 2 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker -- 3.93% -- 1 Delegate
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 0.96% -- 0 Delegates

[center[/center]


Following the Caucuses, Governor Walker suspended his presidential campaign. Governor Walker’s withdrawal was overdue according to many. He had never polled within the top three, and he stood little chance of winning the nomination from the get go. One Washington Post analyst claimed that Governor Walker “missed his chance” in the 2016 race.

The big winner of the night was Donald Trump. Not only had he won, he had won by 16 points. He had reclaimed the frontrunner position that he had been trying to seize from the Cruz Campaign since the start of the race. Now, the nomination was his to lose. He had momentum on his side, and his supporters were more emboldend than ever before. While it might be easy to call Warren the other big winner, her win was much less impressive. She only narrowly beat back Kander, and beyond that her win simply didn’t carry the importance. Unlike Trump’s win, it didn’t propel her to the front of the pack, it simply kept her campaign afloat. The Kander campaign claimed the second place finish meant that momentum was on his side.

The biggest loser of the night was Senator Cruz. Not only did he lose, he didn’t even place second. He had underperformed Trump by 20%. His campaign was hemorrhaging support and money. Many Republican leaders and politicians, who were supporting Cruz to try and deny Trump the nomination, where now looking at the Kasich, Sasse, and even Haley Campaigns. The Rubio campaign was also now dead, but its corpse would be dragged along by the GOP for a little while longer.

[Sestak]

Goddammit Iowa Democrats, you were so close to getting it right.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Goddammit Iowa Democrats, you were so close to getting it right.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Goddammit Iowa Democrats, you were so close to getting it right.

[Cold War Liberal]

I just finished "Promise Me, Dad." This TL is great, wish it was real life...

[MycroftCZ]

wish it was real life...

[Edgeofnight]

I just finished "Promise Me, Dad." This TL is great, wish it was real life...

I'm actually reading through the book now, its why I've been writing this tl a lot lately. Anyway,

Part Eleven: Tense Times before New Hampshire


Biden: “Warren is Worrisome. Kander and Booker more likable.”



During an interview, Biden suffered another of his trademark gaffes. When answering questions about the current Democratic field, Biden spoke to each of the candidates strengths, while avoiding endorsing any particular candidate. When asked about his Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Biden spoke about her strong credentials, and leadership as Vice President. However, as the conversation continued, Biden was asked why the Kander and Booker campaigns where gathering steam. In response,  Biden began to talk about the “electability” of Warren, and said that it was worrying how voters seemed not to like her. He also stated that voters seemed to like Kander and Booker more. The interview wrapped up shortly after, but the damage had been done to the Warren Campaign.

Candidates make final pitch to voters before Critical New Hampshire Primary.



In the final debate before the New Hampshire primary, each candidate found themselves making a pitch to voters. Not only on policy, but on their viability as candidates. In that regard, Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren found difficulty in convincing their respective parties of their electability. Ted Cruz was never the most popular individual, to put it kindly. So now, having the core message of his campaign undercut, and having lost the status as the chief “Never Trump” candidate, many of his supporters, especially those in Republican Leadership, began to doubt his candidacy. Senator Mike Lee, once one of Cruz’s chief supporters in the Senate, endorsed Ben Sasse following the Iowa Caucus. However, the Cruz campaign became convinced that a good debate performance could reverse the trend, and help him recapture support. That’s not how it happened however. Cruz suffered from a lackluster performance, and committed a fairly noticeable gaffe. When asked if he would support Donald Trump if he was the nominee, Cruz said plainly that “I could never support Donald Trump.” When challenged on his support of Donald Trump in 2016, Cruz claimed that he never endorsed Trump, only the Republican Party.  Needless to say, voters saw this as a weak excuse. The rest of his performance didn’t make up for this either. On the Democratic side, Warren was plagued by the same issue to plagued Hillary Clinton. Voters liked her record, and her policy positions, but as a candidate she was uncharismatic, and many felt she was unelectable. Add to these concerns the Biden gaffe that occurred just days before the New Hampshire Primary, and Warren’s campaign was stuck with a ghost it couldn’t shake. This problem was only made worse by the likability of Booker, Kander, Gillibrand, and Harris. In the end, it crushed what little (if any) momentum she had from her narrow win in Iowa, and solidified Booker’s lead in the nationwide polling.

Following the debate, Trump lashed out at his Republican Rivals on his favorite platform.



Especially John Kasich,



New Hampshire polling shows Hassan and Kasich in trouble. Harris gains on Booker in South Carolina, while Haley’s lead grows. Nationwide, Booker and Trump lead their packs, with challengers close behind.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

South Carolina Democratic Primary

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 18%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  21%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 20%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 39%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 16%

National Republican Primary/u]

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 17%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%