State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

The NH seat is a safe Democratic seat held by the Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

The republicans already have some strong candidates, I don't know. Probably more likely than MA, but less likely than MD.

[KingSweden]

We're winning suburban Oklahoma City and Tulsa districts now. Great news.

And it only took the sexual harassment of an assistant and a child prostitution charge. The OK GOP are just lovely people, aren't they?

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhklahoma where the pervs come sweeping down the plain.

*raucous applause*

[smoltchanov]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

[Ebsy]

Next up:

July 18: New Hampshire HD Merrimack 18
Kris Schultz (DEM)
Michael P. Feeley (GOP)

Vacant following the resignation of the Democratic incumbent Andrew deTreville, the district went Clinton 59, Trump 37 in 2016 and Obama 61, Romney 38 in 2012. Feeley was the GOP candidate last time around, losing the open seat 56-44 to deTreville. In a favorable year for the GOP I suspect they might have had a chance of an upset here, but their chances look doubtful. Probable Democratic hold. Margins should be interesting.

[GlobeSoc]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

Sure, but in Fallins 2014 underperformance, there was a noticeable east-west divide in the results, even in rural areas. Compared to 2014, a dem would probably need to flip several close rural counties, almost all in Little Dixie, as well as get a mid-high single digit margin in the counties where Tulsa and OKC are located

[smoltchanov]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

Sure, but in Fallins 2014 underperformance, there was a noticeable east-west divide in the results, even in rural areas. Compared to 2014, a dem would probably need to flip several close rural counties, almost all in Little Dixie, as well as get a mid-high single digit margin in the counties where Tulsa and OKC are located

Agree. But that task looks daunting now.

[Ebsy]

Democrats also won two off-year special elections in 2015, this isn't really surprising at all.

I think this chart from ballotpedia is relevant in regards to your comment:



We're currently at D+3, R-3. Obviously this doesn't paint a complete picture going back more than a handful of years, but winning special elections looks fairly predictive for how the parties fared in the House, especially if you consider the figures across each cycle. Obviously we don't know the final tally for this year, but I could see it being as high as D+4-6 and R+4-6 with the remaining contests. Still, something to keep in mind.

[mds32]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

[mds32]

Next up:

July 18: New Hampshire HD Merrimack 18
Kris Schultz (DEM)
Michael P. Feeley (GOP)

Vacant following the resignation of the Democratic incumbent Andrew deTreville, the district went Clinton 59, Trump 37 in 2016 and Obama 61, Romney 38 in 2012. Feeley was the GOP candidate last time around, losing the open seat 56-44 to deTreville. In a favorable year for the GOP I suspect they might have had a chance of an upset here, but their chances look doubtful. Probable Democratic hold. Margins should be interesting.

Here is blog piece for both Schultz and Cavanaugh for the next two NH Specials: https://ready2vote.com/blog/2017/6/26/y5i7f2cf439zcip5frghwke7cagonp

[Ebsy]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

If anyone is interested, I calculated the 2016 Presidential and Senate numbers this morning.

2012 President:

Obama: 37.7 (44.4 statewide)
Romney: 60 (53.6)

2016 President

Clinton: 36.7 (38.1)
Trump: 57.7 (56.8 )

2012 Senate

McCaskill: 48.7 (54.8 )
Akin: 43.3 (39.1)

2016 Senate (two party)

Kander: 45.7 (48.5)
Blunt: 54.3 (51.5)

[Kamala]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

Is she related to Ike?

[MarkD]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

If anyone is interested, I calculated the 2016 Presidential and Senate numbers this morning.

2012 President:

Obama: 37.7 (44.4 statewide)
Romney: 60 (53.6)

2016 President

Clinton: 36.7 (38.1)
Trump: 57.7 (56.8 )

2012 Senate

McCaskill: 48.7 (54.8 )
Akin: 43.3 (39.1)

2016 Senate (two party)

Kander: 45.7 (48.5)
Blunt: 54.3 (51.5)

Very interested! Good job! This is the very same kind of election analysis that I often do as well.

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According to her own campaign site, yes, she is a distant cousin to him, and she met him once in his capitol hill office.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So when is the election to replace that Artiles idiot?

[Virginiá]

So when is the election to replace that Artiles idiot?

September 26

[Ebsy]

Anyone got a results link for New Hampshire tonight?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nope

[The Other Castro]

LOL

WMUR TV @WMUR9
Unofficial results from Concord Ward 9 @NHHouseofReps special: Democrat @KrisSchultzNH 284; Republican Michael Feeley 82 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/wmur9/status/887453598648602624

[Holmes]

LOL

WMUR TV @WMUR9
Unofficial results from Concord Ward 9 @NHHouseofReps special: Democrat @KrisSchultzNH 284; Republican Michael Feeley 82 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/wmur9/status/887453598648602624

Dems won here in 2016 by 11%. Now it's 50%+. New Hampshire is so susceptible to violent swings.

lol@ ~385 voters in total

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[Holmes]

I think New Hampshire men may be joining their female counterparts in being angry.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two elections will occur next week:

Senate   NH   16   7/25/17            
Senate   MA   MDL 4   7/25/17

[The Other Castro]

I think New Hampshire men may be joining their female counterparts in being angry.

I think everyone everywhere is angry these days.

[Ebsy]

That really is an incredible margin for what is normally a 60-40 district.

[Ebsy]

Two elections will occur next week:

Senate   NH   16   7/25/17            
Senate   MA   MDL 4   7/25/17

Mississippi HD 108 as well, a safe GOP district which went 77-23 for the GOP when it was last up in 2015. DailyKos does not have Presidential numbers for Mississippi LDs.

NH Senate 16 is an important swing district. Democrats won 51-49 in 2016, Clinton carried the district 47.69 to Trump's 47.37. Obama lost it to Romney 49-50. Will be the most interesting contest.

Massachusetts MDL 4 is a safe Democratic district that the GOP doesn't normally contest. Last time it was, Dems won it 68-32 in 2012. Obama won it 60-38.5 and Clinton carried it 62-33.