First the bad news: I will be locking this thread early next week.
The Party conventions have well established what the themes of the 2016 Presidential election will be. It will be extremely difficult for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to offer something new. Both conventions have offered much grist for campaign ads. VP selections have been made, so nobody needs to ask whether Donald Trump would do better by selecting Senator Susan Collins or whether Hillary Clinton would have done better by selecting Senator Bernie Sanders.
What I think of the respective conventions matters not here. Yes, I am a partisan hack; I expect to do active campaigning for Democrats this fall. Such bias will show in my commentary. Yes, I believe that the Democrats solved far more problems in their convention than the Republicans solved in theirs -- but I will let the polls do the talking. I prefer that reality cloud my judgment than that my opinions cloud reality.
In binary races, the leading nominee should be getting over 45% in a binary matchup in a poll that really matters in any state. The margin matters, of course, but a 49-47 lead may mean more than a 44-38 lead even if the 44-38 lead is outside the usual 4% margin of error. Of course I shall continue to treat any lead with less than 40% of the vote as a tie. If anything I may begin considering any lead with less than 43% as a tie unless the leader is up by 5% or more.
The basic trick will be to use orange for a Democratic lead with less than 47% in orange instead of red and green for a Republican lead with less than 47% in a binary matchup.
Here's one way to get blank maps: take old ones, like these introducing Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina to the maps of binary matchups against Hillary Clinton. I will reject data from discredited pollsters, from special interest groups, and the insider polls of candidates and parties.
Hillary Clinton vs.
Ben Carson Hillary Clinton vs.
Carly Fiorina So let us suppose that early next week I get these polling results. These are all fictional, so I am not predicting their appearance or their results. Polls taken this weekend include:
Quinnipiac:
Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5
UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"
Michigan -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14
NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:
Georgia -- Clinton 48 Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9
Loof-Lirpa Polling:
Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45
Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)
Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8
Research 2000:
Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7
Marquette University Law School
Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11
PPP, North Carolina --
Clinton 47, Trump 45; Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 9
Marist
Connecticut -- Clinton 56 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35; Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18
Selzer
Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 45,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Johnson lead
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30
WMUR-TV
New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45
Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:
Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42
National Right-to-Life Committee:
Massachusetts:
Clinton 51, Trump 46.
It's obvious that a high school lacks the professional competence necessary for conducting a poll. Research 2000 is a fraud. We can rule out polls involving the UAW, the NAACP, the front of the American Petroleum Institute (Big Oil), and the National Right-to-Life Committee for being associated with special interest groups or advocacy organizations. "Loof-Lirpa Polling" appears only on April Fool's Day. The University of Elkhart does not exist. The others are good.
So what are we left with?
Quinnipiac:
Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5
UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"
Michigan -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14
NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:
Georgia -- Clinton 48 Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9
Loof-Lirpa Polling:
Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45
Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)
Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8
University of Elkhart:
Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5
Research 2000:
Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7Marquette University Law School
Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11
PPP, North Carolina --
Clinton 45, Trump 47; Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 9
Marist
Connecticut -- Clinton 54 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35; Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18
Selzer
Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 43,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 11
Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Trump 52 Clinton 45
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30
WMUR-TV
New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45
Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:
Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42
University of Elkhart:
Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5
National Right-to-Life Committee:
Massachusetts:
Clinton 51, Trump 46. Leader up with
60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% -- saturation 70%
50-54% -- saturation 60%
47-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
47-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%
(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)
40-46%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-46%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%
I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color.
I have no idea of what I will do with the three-way polls. Simply start over?