2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Tender Branson]

The Generic Ballot question in the Marist polls of MI, WI and MN are actually different to what was posted above ...

That's because the poll includes 2 different questions ("what do you want" and "how will you vote"):

MI

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45-36 A Congress controlled by Democrats (+9)

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49-36 Democrat (+13)

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In WI, it is 47-39 (preference) and 51-38 (actual vote).

In MN, it is 48-36 (preference) and 48-37 (actual vote).

[GlobeSoc]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

[new_patomic]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

I believe exit polls say Clinton narrowly lost college educated whites in 2016, so it's expanded.

[Brittain33]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

I believe exit polls say Clinton narrowly lost college educated whites in 2016, so it's expanded.

That is what the exit polls said, but I remember reading this article that they could have been way off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

[Kodak]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

I believe exit polls say Clinton narrowly lost college educated whites in 2016, so it's expanded.

That is what the exit polls said, but I remember reading this article that they could have been way off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

See this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=290720.0

According to Reagente's calculations, Non-Hispanic white voters with a degree voted D+0.2 and voters with no degree voted R+34. The exit polls claimed they voted R+4 and R+39, respectively. Either way, there was a roughly 35-point gap between the two groups. According to the Marist poll, the gap has narrowed to 24 points, which is a big improvement from 2016 but still larger than it was in the 2012 exit poll.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1023299853458268162

[Maxwell]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1023299853458268162

a poll which also had Rauner down just 1 point. lol

[BundouYMB]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1023299853458268162

Victory Research is a new pollster whose only record is hugely missing the IL Dem Gov primary. I wouldn't trust them.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing blue wave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

[Virginiá]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

[UncleSam]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

[Politician]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

Suburbs will do. See Virginia.

Virginia is an execption, not a rule. Ohio/Wisconsin subs for example are still solidly Rep.

[Nyvin]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

Suburbs will do. See Virginia.

Virginia is an execption, not a rule. Ohio/Wisconsin subs for example are still solidly Rep.

If Ohio and Wisconsin's suburbs trend Dem, they'd vote Dem statewide too.   

Rural areas are just too small on their own, and getting smaller anyway.

[American2020]

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[ON Progressive]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

Those are terrible numbers for Hunter.

[Zaybay]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

Simmer down a bit, you gotta also remember that Hunter has a scandal and plenty of skeletons come out of his closet since his last GE.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember that internals are only ever released to promote a message that the campaign wants to be spread.

[Zaybay]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

Simmer down a bit, you gotta also remember that Hunter has a scandal and plenty of skeletons come out of his closet since his last GE.

Thats why I prefaced it with "If this is true". I doubt this internal, but if it is close to the end result, as I said, the House will be D. TBH, Im having a hard time seeing the house not be D.

[Pericles]

Those numbers look good on their own. But it's not that impressive that Hunter is up 9 in a D internal(and over 50%), so he's probably Safe. This doesn't affect my view of the wider battle for the House at all.

[KingSweden]

Those numbers look good on their own. But it's not that impressive that Hunter is up 9 in a D internal(and over 50%), so he's probably Safe. This doesn't affect my view of the wider battle for the House at all.

I suspect Hunter wins 55-45 or so in the end

[Hindsight was 2020]

CNN has moved VA02 and VA07 into tossup. Apparently Stewart is really having a down ballot drag

[Gass3268]

Likely R seems fair for CA-50.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's a pretty interesting interview with Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report here:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/100-days-until-midterms-assessing-democrats-chances-for-taking-back-the-house.html

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