2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Which is why this House map this year is just so...interesting. PA, NY, NJ, MN, VA, FL, and CA have the bulk of competitive seats this year, and they are all safe dem states or PA and FL which are tossup states at worst.

Totally different from the senate map where almost all the key races are deep in Trump Territory.

The seats needed are all remnants of the GOP stronghold known as the suburbs, but with growing diversity and a rise of new issues such as healthcare and college tuition, it seems that these seats will finally fall into Democratic hands.

[Zaybay]

Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1016763181870411776

Eyyyy, Limo is Back.

Back at it with trying to contort everything into "Dems are in disarray".

[Zaybay]

Emerson-

Democrats: 49% (+4)
Republicans: 42% (+2)

Democrats get an 18-point lead in the midwest, 52-34%

Unrelated to the generic ballot, but it shows that 41% of 18-34 year olds prefer a socialist system compared to 42% who prefer a capitalist system. Ocasio bump?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-national-july2018-PR.pdf

This is what I was talking about before, the undecideds are finally starting to move. And more are moving for the Ds.

But those Midwest Numbers
Those are delicious.


As to the Socialism/Capitalism question you have, most millenials were given the short end of the stick in 2008, and have generally been more supportive of such a system. There were numerous news articles around the election and before it on how "the youth are turning to communism" and such. It was never even though, and that could be explained by the Trump effect and the success of DSA/progressive candidates this cycle(and their ability to reach voters through the media, like OC)

[Zaybay]

Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.

 just telling people what the poll says. I'm sorry your "DEMS ARE DOOMED" narrative sunk two months ago.

[Zaybay]

Fox poll
D+8
https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed


On mobile, sorry for the lack of info upfront

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1018866236678115329

Pretty sure Rouda will lead, the fact that the incumbent Rohrabacher only had 30% support in the jungle primary tells me that voters are not that keen on supporting him. The two questions I have are
1. Will the race be close, or will Rouda have a good lead?
2. Will Rouda get any more star power? Jason Alexander helped him out, and Mark Hamill has already given both his support and his vote for him.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Wow, and this is likely Morning Consult, the go to for Politico. This is really big. I could see a D trifecta, and senate seat with these numbers.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

I agree. I doubt even this occurring would stay in the news for long, possibly one or two weeks, and even then, McCain's praise would go down the drain after Trump leaves.

[Zaybay]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

It’s an 11 point lead nationally. The state sizes seem small, but only WI looks like a clear outlier

Huh, polling that seems to get every other state right, but is miserably incorrect on WI, where have I heard that before....

[Zaybay]

Dems at +9.1 on 538, and +8.2 on RCP.

*whistle* thats high

[Zaybay]

NBC/WSJ high quality live-caller poll taken partially after the Helsinki summit

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1021138283412287488

Last poll was in early June.

Democrats - 49 (-1)
Republicans - 43 (+3)

Actually, looking at some stats in the poll
Overall approval:45-52

Indie approval:36-58
Dem approval: 9-90
Rep approval: 89-9

GCB: 49/43 D+6

Indie GCB 48/26 D+22

There is something fishy with these totals. With the Dems and Reps cancelling each other out, the Indies should swing it more D, but it doesnt. It seems like Rs were oversampled.

Edit: Accidentally put D+20 instead of D+22. Fixed.

[Zaybay]

NBC/WSJ high quality live-caller poll taken partially after the Helsinki summit

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1021138283412287488

Last poll was in early June.

Democrats - 49 (-1)
Republicans - 43 (+3)

Actually, looking at some stats in the poll
Overall approval:45-52

Indie approval:36-58
Dem approval: 9-90
Rep approval: 89-9

GCB: 49/43 D+6

Indie GCB 48/26 D+22

There is something fishy with these totals. With the Dems and Reps cancelling each other out, the Indies should swing it more D, but it doesnt. It seems like Rs were oversampled.

Whoops, made a mistake. The Indie vote is not D+20.....its D+22. Fixed it

NBC/WSJ high quality live-caller poll taken partially after the Helsinki summit

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1021138283412287488

Last poll was in early June.

Democrats - 49 (-1)
Republicans - 43 (+3)

Actually, looking at some stats in the poll
Overall approval:45-52

Indie approval:36-58
Dem approval: 9-90
Rep approval: 89-9

GCB: 49/43 D+6

Indie GCB 48/26 D+20

There is something fishy with these totals. With the Dems and Reps cancelling each other out, the Indies should swing it more D, but it doesnt. It seems like Rs were oversampled.

Not at all.  If D, R, and I are approximately the same percentage of the sample (i.e., if I is 1/3 of the total) and D & R cancel each other out exactly, then the I proportion of D+20 should swing the entire sample to about 1/3 of that, or around D+6 or 7.

I think thats the problem that many are missing in this election. The D and R vote are not going to be equal. The D vote is always larger than the R vote, in almost every election. In the 2010 and 2014 midterms, D voter turnout was around the same as R voter turnout, except the Indies sided with the Rs. In 2016, the same dynamics occurred, except D turnout was much higher, but not high enough. If this is a midterm where the Indie vote is extremely pro D, and D turnout will be much higher than R turnout, then, lets just say many pundits and strategists will lose their jobs.

[Zaybay]

Nate just announced on Twitter the poll got scrapped due to a method issue

I think I found that method issue, BTW. I knew there was something wrong with those numbers.

[Zaybay]

Nate just announced on Twitter the poll got scrapped due to a method issue

I think I found that method issue, BTW. I knew there was something wrong with those numbers.

Different poll.  He's talking about the poll of 60 battleground districts that Upshot was working on.

ah, nvm.

[Zaybay]

Capuano is likely to win, the undecideds will go to him, based off the crosstabs. Pressley doesnt have the issues, nor the enthusiasm, to win.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568
AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Me a couple of minutes ago: Oh, finnaly, the poll for the house race was released, wonder what it is? Wait....Cook moved PA-17 to lean D? Thats..how good is this poll?


Me now:

[Zaybay]

Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.

The Black and Native American numbers seem really off, especially the latter.

Don't Natives in the Oklahoma/Texas part of the nation skew GOP?

A lot of people who claim native heritage in those states are white people basing it off family stories (it's the same thing Elizabeth Warren is pinged for a lot by the right).

Agreed, I find it hard to believe full-blooded Native American descendants are voting Republican.

I find it a bit funny that our problem with a poll that shows Democrats with a lead of 13%....is that the minority numbers are too R-friendly.

[Zaybay]

Why is the elderly leaning D that much of a shock? Their benefits would be the first to be put on a buzzsaw the moment the GOP gets a supermajority.

Hofoid actually is right in this case. Its mostly the 50-65 range that votes D. The elderly are actually rather split, and the oldest in society favor Ds, just as the greatest generation did.

The fact that the young vote D and the old vote R is a new development, it was actually the opposite for up until the Millenials. It was always The Greatest and Silent were pro D, while the Boomers and Xers were pro R.

[Zaybay]

This poll seems pretty unrealistic. I believe he's underwater, but not by that much, which calls the GCB numbers into question too. As we've seen with polls, non college educated voters tend to be underpolled.

These numbers are collaborated by MC and other polling. So I would say they are rather realistic. Also, as the non college educated voters have been the one to turn against Trump in the midwest, polling more would probably lower his approval even more


Disappointing that they didnt show the primary and general numbers today, now I got to wait another day.

[Zaybay]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

[Zaybay]

CA-50:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1023668229854646272

woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

Simmer down a bit, you gotta also remember that Hunter has a scandal and plenty of skeletons come out of his closet since his last GE.

Thats why I prefaced it with "If this is true". I doubt this internal, but if it is close to the end result, as I said, the House will be D. TBH, Im having a hard time seeing the house not be D.

[Zaybay]

Axios/SurveyMonkey, July 25-27, 2509 adults (this is not the SurveyMonkey weekly tracker)

D 49, R 38

Waiting for the obligatory Axios article about how this is terrible for the Democrats and will result in the Dark Ages 2.0. Oh, and the Senate will be lost too.

[Zaybay]

Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

Wow, I was actually in the camp that Kalto would win. I made two exceptions for my rule of environment over personal appeal, and it was Kalto and Valadao. Looks like there can only be one exception to the rule.

Moving this race from likely R->Tossup, with a slight tilt D.

[Zaybay]

Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

I’d be stunned if Katko lost

Why? This is a D+3 district even with Trump overperforming in upstate NY in 2016. He's been unusually strong in the few elections he's run in, but he's not Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with 25 years in office.

I, and many on Atlas, emphasized her candidate quality. She is like Fitzpatrick in PA-01, except he has survived in a much harder district. I gave Wallace the benefit of the doubt, considering that Wallace was running in a neutral district and a poll had him down around 6 a couple months ago(only 1 if using likely turnout).But for Balter, I didnt. Mostly for the aforementioned reasons, but also because Balter was considered weak, and not even the DCCC endorsed him, but it was for rather petty reasons of beating out their inferior candidate. But now that there is polling, we finally can see that really only 1 district will be safe due to candidate quality, the one in CA, and all others are competitive.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JamesThompsonKS/status/1025568460456243200

I cant believe that its possible for the Democrats to have a majority delegation in KS in the year 2019.

Also, Thompson is a personal favorite of mine this cycle, so I wish him the best.