CBS/NYT: Obama, Romney tied at 46% (user search)
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  CBS/NYT: Obama, Romney tied at 46% (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/NYT: Obama, Romney tied at 46%  (Read 822 times)
ajb
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Posts: 869
United States


« on: April 18, 2012, 04:30:28 PM »

Democrats specifically like to call it a poll junk, Republican friendly or an outllier if they don't like it.  Same goes to Republicans if the poll is DEM friendly, but I'm not going into that since these forums are DEM leaning.
This is why it makes more sense to average the polls than to "junk" the ones you don't like, and brandish the ones you do as signs of some new campaign "narrative."

There's a circular reasoning to declaring polls "junk:" we call them "junk," usually, because the topline results contradict our understanding of how the race looks, yet the whole point of paying attention to the polls is to discover how the race looks. If we simply exclude those polls that don't fit our pre-conceived notions of how the campaign is going, then in effect we reject the possibility of learning anything from the polls.

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