Northern Territory, Australia - Saturday 9 August 2008

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I'll admit that I hardly know anything about politics in the Northern Territory. So forgive me. Despite my lack of knowledge, I will admit this. The Labor Party, led by incumbent Chief Minister Paul Henderson and his Labor Government will win reelection. Considering that the Northern Territory's economy is booming, despite the rising cost of fuel and living (I believe rent in Darwin is $400 from memory), it's a very good chance that this Election will result in the dissolving of the Country Liberal Party. And most people thought that 2005 was a landslide victory for Clare Martin, this upcoming Election in the NT could potentially be a rout.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Here I was believing that Paul Henderson's Government would receive a swing towards his Labor Government, and in the process that the Country Liberal Party would collapse. I have been proven wrong big time - even more so than my comments regarding John McCain's candidature back in June/July 2007.

I wonder where this leaves the Liberal Party nationally, particularly the leadership of Brendan Nelson and more importantly the Liberal Party's chances of defeating the Carpenter Government on September 6?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Labor strategist saying that the result in Fannie Bay is pretty close at the moment and if it goes CLP, will be a hung Parliament.

If Fannie Bay does go to the Country Liberal Party and the 2008 NT Election results in being a hung parliament, who would Gerry Wood, the Independent of Nelson side with to form a new Government? This brings back my vague memories of the November 1999 Victorian Election which resulted in Steve Bracks forming a minority Government thanks to the support of two Independents, though it might have been three, though I am not sure.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

According to Antony Green, the ABC's electoral guru, in an unusual move, they'll be counting postal votes in the closest electorates around the Northern Territory, the prime seat is that of Fannie Bay, which has been previously mentioned earlier this evening. Hard to believe that the CLP has recorded a swing of more than 14.1% in the electorate that was once a "safe" seat for the Labor Party, though that is debatable.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Anthony Green's website said that Fannie Bay was originally a by-election win by Claire Martin from the CLP - so that sort of swing isn't entirely out of the question.

Learning from the broadcast of the Election results in the Top End, swings, such as those in Fannie Bay tonight are quite common, infact highly common. I believe former Chief Minister Clare Martin said that a similar swing occurred to her when she won Fannie Bay in the 1995 by-election.

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Also learning from the broadcast of the Election results, I believe that if Fannie Bay does go to the CLP and thus a hung parliament occurs in the Top End that Wood would help CLP Leader Terry Mills form Government and thus become Chief Minister. Although former Chief Minister Martin repetitively suggested to Kerry O'Brien that Wood is a "true Independent", I believe that judging from his comments made tonight he is seriously contemplating helping Mills to form Government, if a hung parliament was to occur.

Similar situation in Queensland in the Parliament 1995-98, and to a lesser extent 98-01.

Ah Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party, thankfully her and her nationalist scum didn't influence Victorian politics. One of the few things Jeffery did good as Victorian Premier, though it was not Jeffery's influence alone which caused One Nation to have hardly any influence in Victorian politics. We're sophisticated folk .

[Robespierre's Jaw]

How'd this happen? I'm not the most competent when it comes to NT politics.

One potential reason for the Henderson Government's drastic fall from grace in Darwin could be due to Henderson's decision to call an early election, which could have been held back until 2009. Funny that Henderson called an election at a time when the Beijing Olympic Games are currently being held,  and due to about two public holidays (me thinks) occurring in the Northern Territory during the 19 day campaign.

However, I believe one of the most significant factors that have led to the drastic fall of the Henderson Government would be due Territorian voters deserting Labor across Darwin's crucial northern suburbs and the satellite city of Palmerston, and as I learnt about Territorian politics on the best political show in Australia, The Insiders, not to mention last night's election coverage, if ten people in an electorate of one thousand (on average in the Northern Territory) change their minds it's enough for the electorate to change hands. And judging from the amount of 10-15% swings towards the CLP, Labor Ministers have obviously taken their electorates for granted, thus the massive swing.

These are some potential ideas as to why the Henderson Government do so appallingly in last night's election, and I can assure you all, there are numerous other reasons to go alongside my suggestions.