Northern Territory, Australia - Saturday 9 August 2008

[Smid]

Apparently there was a snap election called in the Northern Territory recently. I only just heard about it.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nt/2008/

[Smid]

I think 2005 was a low point for them, so I assume there'll be an increase for them, but I couldn't say how much.

Labor has a new Chief Minister and I believe there have been internal problems, too. That said, I found out about the election because a political news thing I get in my inbox said that the CLP has been massively outspent on advertising and has just sent a "help us by giving us money" email out.

[Smid]

Currently hearing of a 9% swing to the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory, CLP pick up of 4 seats. Anthony Green's site (link earlier in this thread) has up to date results.

Looks like 9.6% to the CLP.

CLP outpolling Labor, but the final makeup will be Labor 13, CLP 11, Ind 1. Labor will just hang on.

[Smid]

Yeah - ABC is webcasting their talking heads.

Labor strategist saying that the result in Fannie Bay is pretty close at the moment and if it goes CLP, will be a hung Parliament.

[Smid]

They're saying Fannie Bay is currently 40 votes the difference and the fate of the Government will probably hang on that because the Independent will probably side with the CLP.

[Smid]

Anthony Green's website said that Fannie Bay was originally a by-election win by Claire Martin from the CLP - so that sort of swing isn't entirely out of the question.

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Bracks had the support of three independents, I think. Similar situation in Queensland in the Parliament 1995-98, and to a lesser extent 98-01.

[Smid]

Gerry Wood says that he will be thinking closely about who he would support to form Government. I think that given the swing - the people have expressed quite strongly that they are looking for change, and given that the CLP outpolled the ALP, I think he would understand that the CLP should form Government in the Northern Territory.

Also learning from the broadcast of the Election results, I believe that if Fannie Bay does go to the CLP and thus a hung parliament occurs in the Top End that Wood would help CLP Leader Terry Mills form Government and thus become Chief Minister. Although former Chief Minister Martin repetitively suggested to Kerry O'Brien that Wood is a "true Independent", I believe that judging from his comments made tonight he is seriously contemplating helping Mills to form Government, if a hung parliament was to occur.

I agree. That was the feeling I was getting from what he was saying, too.

[Smid]

Lab 43.0%, 13 seats
CLP 45.6%, 11 seats

Note that two Labor seats (Arnhem, Macdonnell) were unopposed, rending popular vote figures a little meaningless.

Indeed, it has inflated the Labor Party's vote there, they actually would have received a lower vote had it not been for that. None-the-less, here's the ninemsn story:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=611865