Alberta Election 2019

[136or142]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Will you make an overall prediction of the seat count?

This is mine:
UCP: 56
NDP: 30
Alb: 1

Of course, all I've really done is apply the result of the 1975 B.C election to this, more or less.

1975
S.C: 35
NDP: 18
Liberal: 1
P.C: 1

(The P.C was Dr Scott Wallace from Oak Bay, the Liberal I believe was Gordon Gibson from North Vancouver-Seymour.)

NDP predictions:
Edmonton CMA: 20 of 27 ridings
Calgary CMA: 8 of 30 ridings
rest of province: 2 of 30 ridings.

According to election-atlas.ca, Gibson was from North Vancouver-Capilano.

Sorry.  Thanks for the correction.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Is Khan competitive in Mountainview or is he well behind?

Well, more competitive than any other Liberal (I think), but I think he's well behind. 

Personally, I think he would've had a better shot had he run in Calgary-McCall.

[_]

UCP:  42 Seats
NDP:  39 Seats
Alberta: 5 Seats
Liberal:  1 Seat

idk what the coalition would be

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet from Yesterday:
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/united-conservatives-headed-to-majority/?fbclid=IwAR27FyKxDTMjLRRDUVo1bLibO4enox_AL5WjY9MeMOnxAdEt9xD3q-z-PC0

UCP - 47.5%
NDP - 40.1%
AB - 7.9%
ALP - 2.1%

What is the likelihood (my hope) that the UCP blows out their vote in rural Alberta, mostly the south, as well as a few, urban seats mostly in south Calgary, and the NDP squeaks in with a slim majority, 44. That's 8 seats lost, say 4 in the cities and 4 rural?
We are seeing the NDP leading in Edmonton, basically a tie in Calgary, but blown out in Rural Alberta.In Calgary and Edmonton if the UCP vote is concentrated in only a few seats...
perfect scenario for the NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

there's always that chance that the polling error Mainstreet saw in the Calgary mayoral election plays out in this election too, and the NDP ends up winning most of the seats in Calgary. Not sure how likely that is though, as their crosstabs definitely look more reasonable in this election.

[Njall]

My rough prediction, FWIW:
UCP - 51 seats, 48%
NDP - 35 seats, 41%
ABP - 1 seat, 8%
Others - 0 seats, 3%

[Pericles]

2019 Alberta election
Jason Kenney-UCP: 61+36 48.2%(+48.2%)
Rachel Notley-NDP: 25-27 38.7%(-1.9%)
Stephen Mandel-Alberta: 1-2 7.4%(+5.1%)
David Khan-Liberal: 0-1 2.6%(-1.6%)
87 seats
44 for majority

[mileslunn]

Mine are as follows.  Usually for whatever reason the governing party tends to slightly outperform polls so I show the NDP a bit on the high side.

UCP 49 seats - 46%
NDP 36 seats - 41%
Alberta Party 1 seat

[Pericles]

Mine are as follows.  Usually for whatever reason the governing party tends to slightly outperform polls so I show the NDP a bit on the high side.

UCP 49 seats - 46%
NDP 36 seats - 41%
Alberta Party 1 seat

Is this an Alberta-specific pattern or wider? The PCs of course were the governing party for a long time so it could have been anti-PC bias in the polls.

[mileslunn]

Mine are as follows.  Usually for whatever reason the governing party tends to slightly outperform polls so I show the NDP a bit on the high side.

UCP 49 seats - 46%
NDP 36 seats - 41%
Alberta Party 1 seat

That is Alberta specific.  Note in 2012 Wildrose was more right wing than PCs so not sign of bias towards right but rather governing party.
Is this an Alberta-specific pattern or wider? The PCs of course were the governing party for a long time so it could have been anti-PC bias in the polls.

[mileslunn]

Student vote surprisingly favours UCP and close to my prediction

UCP 49 seats
NDP 35 seats
Alberta party 3 seats

[TWTown]

Is there a good site to track results?

[RogueBeaver]

CBC results here.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1118341713242873857

[Pandaguineapig]

Given that this is still a respectable showing in the face of a united opposition, does anyone think Notley has a future in national politics? I know she is to the center of most of her party, but given that the NDP is likely to lose seats in this falls election I could see her as viable candidate for the leadership of the national party.

[Pericles]

Looks like the UCP has won and it's not very close either.

[adma]

A wider vote differential than many forecast (at this point, about 52-34)--but for the NDP to still manage 25 seats or so on that margin isn't quite a *blowout* blowout, I reckon...

[TWTown]

The NDP did even worse then I expected.

[Pericles]

A wider vote differential than many forecast (at this point, about 52-34)--but for the NDP to still manage 25 seats or so on that margin isn't quite a *blowout* blowout, I reckon...

I'm not sure if the popular vote totals right now are reliable given counting is still incomplete. It does look like my expectations were about right, this is a bit similar to Ontario 2018 imo.

[Pericles]

CBC projects that Stephen Mandel has lost. It seems the Alberta Party may get 0 seats, and it could just be a UCP vs NDP parliament.

[136or142]

A wider vote differential than many forecast (at this point, about 52-34)--but for the NDP to still manage 25 seats or so on that margin isn't quite a *blowout* blowout, I reckon...

I'm not sure if the popular vote totals right now are reliable given counting is still incomplete. It does look like my expectations were about right, this is a bit similar to Ontario 2018 imo.

United Conservatives are now up to 55% of the vote.  Obviously remains to be seen how this changes with the ballots that won't be counted tonight, but the NDP are lucky to have so far won 24 or so seats with a popular vote of 55-32%.

[JonHawk]

wow fantastic result for Kenney and UCP.

[brucejoel99]

Rip Notley. She was the best Alberta was ever going to realistically elect. Hopefully she sticks around & makes a play in 2023.

[Pericles]

Tbh the UCP appear to have slightly underperformed if anything the CBC seat projections. So it is a good night for them but no upset.

[brucejoel99]

If anybody's curious as to what happens next, Notley will still be Premier tomorrow. She remains in office until she resigns *or* is defeated in a confidence vote in the legislature. But with such a strong UCP majority, she'd be sure to lose a confidence vote, so to save the humiliation, she'll obviously skip that part.

The Lt. Gov. of Alberta (Lois Mitchell) will get a call or a visit from Notley sometime this week (tomorrow, perhaps). There, Notley will inform the LG that she wishes to resign, along with the rest of the Executive Council. If Notley wants to be extra-proper about it, she'll also advise the LG that Jason Kenney would make a suitable replacement. Regardless, the LG will respond by summoning Kenney, where she'll ask him to form a government for Alberta. Upon accepting, Kenney *officially* becomes Premier-designate, with Notley remaining a caretaker-Premier during the transition period (probably a couple weeks).

Fast forward to the last day of transition: Notley will visit the LG that morning & officially take her leave from her role as Premier. Then the swearing-in ceremony will happen with the LG presiding, the Secretary to Cabinet will swear in Kenney as Premier. Once sworn in, Kenney will present the LG with a letter called an instrument of advice, recommending the appointment of the rest of the Executive Council. The LG will accept, & Kenney's cabinet will be sworn in. At that point, the new (UCP) Government will be officially formed & free to exercise the full constitutional authority of the Crown-in-right-of-Alberta. The legislature will then be recalled sometime after that, once Kenney's got a Throne Speech ready.

Oh, & also, Notley officially announced during her concession speech tonight that she's not stepping down as leader, so she will take up the post of the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the new legislature.