Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.

Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.

In the presidential election, the CHP actually beat out the AKP in Eskişehir. What was the deal there?

[Famous Mortimer]

The main question mark is therefore whether HDP will make it to the threshold. If so, AKP’s life could be a bit more complicated. If not, that’s 9% lost votes automatically granted to them, and they should win big.

Incidentally, this is true in practice though not in theory - since the results all over Kurdistan* will presumably be along the lines of HDP 45-60, AKP 35-50, Kemalists at joke levels, again.

In the presidential election, the CHP actually beat out the AKP in Eskişehir. What was the deal there?

Actually I meant to ask what the deal in Dersim is. Eskisehir is definitely military bases and universities.

Dersim is weirder though. AKP came in third behind the Kurds and the CHP. Apparently there was a Kemalist massacre of some Kurds there in the 20s. Erdogen actually apologized for it on the states behalf. You would think for those reasons that the CHP would be a joke party, like it is in the rest of Kurdistan but it's not, it's exactly the opposite, the AKP is the joke party. It's the only province where they came in third.

[Famous Mortimer]

What does a typical MHP voter look like?

[Famous Mortimer]

Hey, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu joined the MHP.

[Famous Mortimer]

I asked before but I'll ask again cus no one answered. Anyone got any idea what MHP's constituency actually looks like?

[Famous Mortimer]

Is an anti-AKP coalition possible? I think I heard MHP dislikes AKP more than CHP, because despite them being far-right their type of nationalism is more like CHP.
Edit: Almost certainly no, I can't see MHP and HDP in a coalition. But I can't see who will prop up AKP either.

The only thing they have in common with the CHP is that the CHP is historically anti-Kurd. They could go into an alliance with the AKP to stop the Kurdish peace process, especially since Erdogan-Kurd relations have broken down over ISIS.

Also, they have made some religious overtures this campaign, attempting to reconcile with the Grand Unity Party, an Islamist splinter party that broke away from them, and putting forward as a candidate that Islamist guy who ran for president against Erdogan.

[Famous Mortimer]

This may be crazy, but could the MHP prop up AKP?

Not crazy at all.

[Famous Mortimer]

This may be crazy, but could the MHP prop up AKP?

I was about to ask the same question.

What would the MHP demand in return though...?

End to negotiations with the PKK.

Also, just power, ministers. They are not particularly ideological. They sat with the Democratic Left in the 90s, despite having been formed as an anti-Communist death squad.

[Famous Mortimer]

Bahceli of MHP has ruled out coalition with AKP.  He said MHP is against AKP, CHP, and HDP.
Demirtas of HDP also seems have ruled out coalition with AKP.

All statements to be taken with a grain of salt.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who won Azerbaijan?

[Famous Mortimer]

Selahattin Demirtas, co-chairman HDP, thanked imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan for supporting peace after HDP wins representation in parliament and denies the ruling AKP a single-party govt.  This does not sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance that includes MHP.  If so we are looking at HDP supporting AKP from the outside or HDP joining AKP in an alliance.

It doesn't sound like the words of a party that is about to go into an alliance, full stop.

This may be crazy, but could the MHP prop up AKP?

I was about to ask the same question.

What would the MHP demand in return though...?

End to negotiations with the PKK.

Also, just power, ministers. They are not particularly ideological. They sat with the Democratic Left in the 90s, despite having been formed as an anti-Communist death squad.

That's because the CHP's claim to be to the AKP's left on any meaningful dimension is a joke, and meant as such.

I would agree but that doesn't have anything to do with the point I made.

The example I use to demonstrate the MHP's lack of ideology was from the 90s, the AKP didn't exist then and the CHP was irrelevant at the time.

[Famous Mortimer]

Weirdly enough the Felicity Party tried to ally with the MHP for this election. I always reckoned the MHP was more of the secular nationalist variety.

This is why I don't even understand the MHP's existence. If they're secular, how does secular conservatism have such a big following in a poor country? If they're religious, why don't their supporters just vote for the AKP?

[Famous Mortimer]

If they're secular, how does secular conservatism nationalism have such a big following in a poor country?

You may have heard of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

Of course but there's already a party for secular nationalists, the CHP. I don't get why a secular nationalists would go for the MHP instead. Presumably because they are conservatives but I'm just having a hard time imagining conservative and secular being that large of a demographic in a poor country. 

[Famous Mortimer]

The thing is though, I'm not even asking what their ideology is. I'm asking what demographic votes for them.

[Famous Mortimer]

Coalition talks still on going. There's talk of a grand coalition between the AKP and the CHP. As well as talk of new elections.