US House Redistricting: Florida

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Tampa Bay Area



FL-5 (Rep. Richard Nugent, R-Spring Hill), Yellow

It now covers just 3 counties instead of all or parts of 8 counties in its current form (removed from Lake, Levy, Marion, Polk and Sumter counties), and is designed as an exurban Tampa seat.  It takes most of Citrus and Pasco counties (minus Port Richey and New Port Richey), plus all of Hernando County (Nugent's political base, as he's formerly the Sheriff there).  Safe Republican.  

FL-9 (Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor), Cyan

This district is minimally altered from its present form, except that it loses Clearwater and parts of western Pasco County.  It also exchanges some Tampa suburbs in Hillsborough County
with FL-11 and FL-12.  Bilirakis' home base of Palm Harbor and northern Pinellas County, however, is still here.  Safe Republican.

FL-10 (Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores), Pink

It gains Clearwater from FL-9, and black parts of St. Peterspurg from FL-11; but loses Dunedin and parts of Palm Harbor to FL-9.  Still totally within Pinellas County, and is the most competitive district in the Tampa Bay area.  Lean Republican with Young, Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic in open seat scenario.

FL-11 (Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa), Light Green

This is the most drastically altered district in the Tampa Bay area, as it is now confined within Hillsborough County.  It lost its arms into Manatee and Pinellas counties, and gains some more conservative suburbs to the east.  It has a lower black percentage but a higher Hispanic percentage than its previous form.  Still plurality white (and 52% white voting age population/VAP).  Castor should be fine if she survives her initial election in this district.  Leans Democratic.

Central Florida



FL-8 (Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Orlando), Lavender

This district is recast to become solely within metro Orlando (Removed from Lake and Marion counties), it also loses its Osceola County portion to FL-12.  However, it gained southeastern Seminole County (Altamonte Springs and Longwood etc.) and eastern Orange County from FL-24, plus bits of FL-3 and FL-7.   As it subsumes most of the conservative parts of Orange County with a slice of traditionally GOP Seminole County attached to it, Webster should be fine here, although the growth of Hispanic population could make the district more interesting towards the end of the decade.  Likely Republican.

FL-12 (Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Lakeland), Baby Blue

Polk County (formerly split with FL-5 and FL-15) is now entirely within this district.  It loses the Hillsborough County portion to FL-9 and FL-13.  It is less white and more Hispanic (about 22%) than its previous incarnation, thanks to the inclusion of parts of Kissimmee.  For now, Ross should be fine, but it seems likely that this district will undergo  demographic changes similar to FL-8 down the road.  Likely Republican.

FL-15 (Rep. Bill Posey, R-Rockledge), Orange

This district now contains all of Brevard County (previously split with FL-24) and most of rural, less Hispanic portions of Osceola County.  It is removed from staunchly GOP Indian River County and takes most of Okeechobee County that still has hints of local conservative Democratic heritage (but votes GOP in federal races).  Posey should be fine here.  Likely Republican.

FL-24 (Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Orlando), Deep Violet

This district now contains most of Seminole County (Oviedo and Sanford etc.) and virtually all of Volusia County, but removed from Brevard and Orange Counties.  Seminole's GOP heritage should give it a GOP tilt, but a moderate Democrat from Volusia should be competitive here in neutral or Dem-friendly years.  Toss Up/Tilt-Republican.

FL-27 (NEW SEAT, Sky Blue)

The Democratic votes freed up from FL-3 and FL-8 are the basis of this plurality Hispanic (about 33% of VAP) district (plurality white in VAP at about 38%, with 22% black VAP).  It consists of downtown Orlando, black areas in western Orange County, Hispanic portions of eas-central and southern Orange County, and the adjoining heavily Hispanic portions of Osceola county (Kissimmee and environs).  Should be a perfect district for State Reps. Darren Soto or Scott Randolph, both Orlando Democrats, if they want promotion to the Congress.  Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer is another solid candidate for this seat.  Finally, polarizing but wealthy former Rep. Alan Grayson may also want to run here if he wants to return to Congress.  A Puerto Rican Republican, however, can make this race competitive.  Lean Democratic.

My partisan count for these seats are 5R, 2D, 2 swing.
Overall partisan count so far are 10R, 3D, 2 swing.

Southwest Florida, Heartland and Treasure Coast seats (FL-13, 14, 16 and 26) up next.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Southwest Florida





FL-13 (Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Sarasota), Pale Pink

It gains retiree heavy, fairly conservative southern Hillsborough County suburbs and keeps DeSoto and Hardee counties.  All of Manatee County is now in this district.  The coastal (down to Siesta Key) and the politically moderate northern portions of Sarasota County remains here as well (For those unfamiliar with Sarasota County politics, areas north of Clark Road in Sarasota are generally considered less conservative, and HD-69 in Florida's State House of Representative, held by Sarasota Democrat Keith Fitzgerald for two terms until his 2010 defeat, covers much of this territory).  The more suburban and conservative portion of Sarasota County and its Charlotte County portion are cast off to my new FL-26.  

It is the coastal bastions of Country-Club Republicanism in Manatee and Sarasota counties, the moderate portions of the city of Sarasota and the residual ethical questions with Buchanan that prevents me from calling this district Safe Republican, and Fitzgerald would be the only Democratic candidate who would be remotely competitive in this district.  Likely Republican.

FL-14 (Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers), Olive

It is removed from Charlotte County and loses a northeastern chunk of Lee County to FL-26, but reunites Collier County with the portion from FL-25.  Still one of the most Republican districts in the state.  Safe Republican.

FL-16 (Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta), Mint Green

This is one of two districts I am least satisfied with (The other is my FL-26).  It now unites the Treasure Coast, taking Indian River County from FL-15 and portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties from FL-23.  It also loses most of Okeechobee County to FL-15 and its portion of Hendry County, plus parts of  Glades and Highlands (Lake Placid and parts of Sebring)  counties to FL-26.  Finally, it is totally removed from Charlotte County (also ceding its portion to FL-26).  With St. Lucie being the only swing county in this district, only a moderate Democrat hailing from there, possibly St. Lucie County Sheriff Ken Mascara, can make the race competitive.  Likely Republican.

FL-26 (NEW SEAT), Grey

Population growth in Southwest Florida is likely to result in one of the two new districts to be located in this area.  My FL-26 is such a district.  It takes all of Charlotte County (from FL-13, FL-14 and FL-16), the adjoining portions of Sarasota and Lee counties from FL-13 and FL-14 respectively.  It also takes most of Hendry County and parts of Glades and Highlands counties.  Expect a melee between Republicans from southern Sarasota County (like State Rep. Doug Holder, HD-70, R-Sarasota), Charlotte County (like former State Rep. Michael Grant, HD-71, R-Port Charlotte and State Rep. Paige Kreegel, HD-72, R-Punta Gorda) and Lee County (like former Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp) or even Highlands County.  Safe Republican.

My partisan count for this seats: 4R.
Overall partisan count so far are 14R, 3D, 2 swing.

South Florida seats (FL-25 and 17-23) up next.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The DOJ okayed the redistricting amendments that were passed last year.

[nclib]

Since some forum Republicans have said that Florida is naturally gerrymandered for the GOP with Democratic votes already concentrated (I doubt this is the only reason since the GOP CD bias is stronger in FL than just about everywhere else), can someone draw a map where Obama would win at least 15/27 CD's, but looks ungerrymandered on paper?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll try later, but let's think. You can draw a seat in inner Jacksonville with all the black areas, one around Dayton Beach, can get two seats out of Orlando, two out of the Tampa Bay area, two black seats in South Florida, get a barely Obama Cuban seat including the Florida keys (this is what Ros-Lehtinen's district is), and three other Dem seats in South Florida. That's 12. I guess you could get a seat in central Florida if you managed to get Osceola County to St. Lucie.

[Dgov]

Depending on how you stretch the limit of "Gerrymandering", you can probably get to 14/27, with 1 in Tallahassee/Mobile/Gainsville, 1 in Jacksonville, 3 in Orlando, 3 in tampa bay/St Petersburg, 1 in SW Floride by connecting all the major cities together from Brandenton to Cape Coral, and 8 or 9 in SOuth Florida if you crack the Cubans enough.  That's 17 or 18, but involves some clear Gerrymandering to do.

The Biggest problem is that Florida has a bunch of like 53-57% McCain counties in it.  Polk county for example is about 500,000 people and 53% McCain--something you could theoretically connect to some heavily Democratic territory to flip, but unless you finger it to West Orlando or Tampa (Which are busy flipping other seats to Obama Seats) there's just no territory like that nearby.  Just more 55% McCain counties.

[minionofmidas]

If "Obama district" by 18 votes is good enough for you, you can get one out of Ocala and Marion Counties with the less disfavorable bits of Putnam and Citrus attached, and no unnecessary county splits to the north. (I suppose the 18 votes thing can be improved on, but not by much.) Though I dare say the remnant third with rural counties between Tallahassee, Gainesville and Jacksonville plus the northern and western edges of Jacksonville does look unnatural - though something somewhat like it may actually happen anyways.
But what bugs me is the district with Tallahassee and Panama City and the rural blacks nearby. Drawn "naturally" with no regards to gerrymandering, it's 52.odd McCain... but the most I could move that without altering the design radically (and obvious gerrymandering) is to 51.8.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, here's my inoffensive-at-first-glance democratic dummymander (for it is a dummymander, not a gerrymander) of North and Central Florida.
No additional county splits. The minemadge seat had to go, of course.





CD1 (West Florida, not shown) 67.7% McCain
CD2 (West Florida, Tallahassee) 52.0% McCain. Can't flip that one without major works.
CD3 (purple remnants district around the Suwannee River) 67.1% McCain
CD4 (Jacksonville) 53.4% Obama
CD5 (Gainesville, Ocala) 50.7% Obama
CD6 (east coast) 58.7% McCain
CD7 (South Pinellas) 55.5% Obama
CD8 (Polk County) 53.0% McCain. Another seat that would, sadly, take major reworking to flip. I suppose you could maybe gain another Obama seat by carving the county up.
CD9 (turquoise thing north of that) 56.0% McCain
CD10 (West Pasco, North Pinellas, NW Hillsborough) 51.3% Obama
CD11 (West Orlando) 60.0% Obama
CD12 (Osceola, East Orlando) 58.6% Obama. Technically "coalition" districts both.
CD13 (Seminole, SW Volusia) 50.4% Obama. And yeah, the Orange precincts to drop in were chosen wisely.
CD14 (Central Hillsborough) 54.5% Obama. And yeah, you guessed right why it's so thin in the middle. Seats to the north and south need those areas.
CD15 (Bradenton, South Hillsborough, parts of Sarasota) 50.3% Obama.

9-6 Obama so far. Parts south just aren't so interesting. Not going to do them.

[minionofmidas]

Eh... ignore that one purple precinct in Alachua.

[minionofmidas]

I see no one has submitted a map preserving the current 3rd so far. It can be done. It shouldn't be done and it probably won't be done, but it can be done.



68% Obama, Black plurality VAP (40.5-39..
The yellow Orange County district is Obama by 10. The ones northeast and southeast of it are marginal McCain districts that might become an issue if trends in the area continue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So there's still a Dem seat in the Orlando area? Exactly the reason the GOP wouldn't want to do this. Better to just make the Orlando seat the Dem pack one.

Plus 10 points for Obama isn't necessarily enough to elect the Glorious One Alan Grayson. I want a much stronger district.

BTW something I just realized about Allen West: As unpopular as the Ryan budget is nationwide, for fairly obvious reasons it is probably more unpopular in his district than any other district held by a Republican, even in its current abomination of a form. Meaning West would be in huge trouble in even the current seat if it was somehow preserved.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Democrats might not be happy if Brown's district is dismantled. You can easily draw a slightly-McCain district in Jacksonville without it looking like a gerrymander.

[minionofmidas]

Ugly as it is, the Jacksonville-to-Tallahassee seat probably gives the parties, ahm, security. I suppose it's what the smart money is on. Though the corridor to Gainesville will probably not be justifiable on VRA grounds and thus be out the window under the legislation adopted. Anyways, as long as it doesn't get its own seat along with Ocala, Gainesville can easily be swallowed up into a Republican seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats might not be happy if Brown's district is dismantled. You can easily draw a slightly-McCain district in Jacksonville without it looking like a gerrymander.

But we get a new Democratic seat in Orlando in return. And Brown is useless and corrupt, but we all know what American hero the Orlando seat could elect...

[Sbane]

Would a 60-40 Obama district in Orlando consistently elect Grayson? Considering how he was thrashed in 2010, I am guessing he would lose even in that Democratic of a district. Nominating Grayson again would be a mistake, even if he somehow does win that district in 2012.

[Dgov]

Would a 60-40 Obama district in Orlando consistently elect Grayson? Considering how he was thrashed in 2010, I am guessing he would lose even in that Democratic of a district. Nominating Grayson again would be a mistake, even if he somehow does win that district in 2012.

I actually checked it, and an Orlando-based Dem Pack district (which is what the Republicans will probably draw since it's legal and makes all the others around it Safe R) would probably be about 70-30.  The area west of Orlando is like 90% Obama (it's the part the 3rd was brought down to get) so that plus the 65% Obama parts of the city proper should be safe enough, even for a bomb-thrower like Grayson.

Granted, Republicans have won stronger D Districts, but usually against horribly corrupt incumbents.  However Grayson extremely poor performance and bombastic style means Orlando might just make an exception, although said Republican would be gone the next election almost certainly.  The biggest problem for Grayson will be winning the Democratic primary in what will probably be a heavily minority seat.

[minionofmidas]

First citizen submission.

in pdf.

A further note on the Corrine Brown district: It appears to be only just about possible to draw a Black plurality district Jacksonville to Gadsden, with a spike into Gainesville. (It appears to be impossible without.) The best I got so far was 45.3-44.8 total population, which of course translates as a more than 5 point White plurality in the VAP.
It is possible to draw it into Orlando. It's not really what either party will want... but they may not have much choice. Unless they decide that there's no community of interest between Jacksonville and Orlando Blacks, and risk a court challenge (which, depending on the rest of the map, may or may not have Democratic political support) to that. It probably makes sense, then, to assume that it will continue in existence.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even with a spike into Orlando, trying to deny the Democrats all other seats in the Orlando area would be a dummymander of the worst type. Of course even then the Democratic seat might be strong enough for our hero.

I don't think Grayson would have too much trouble in a primary even in a majority-minority seat. There's only two State Reps I see being serious and likely candidates, one is also white, the other is half Italian and half Puerto Rican. There's only one Democratic State Senator from the area, and while he is black, he was convicted of a felony in his first term for misuse of his office but was re-elected anyway (even though this means that he couldn't even vote for himself amusingly enough.) I think we can rule him out.

[krazen1211]

Ugly as it is, the Jacksonville-to-Tallahassee seat probably gives the parties, ahm, security. I suppose it's what the smart money is on. Though the corridor to Gainesville will probably not be justifiable on VRA grounds and thus be out the window under the legislation adopted. Anyways, as long as it doesn't get its own seat along with Ocala, Gainesville can easily be swallowed up into a Republican seat.

It certainly guarantees the Dems the 1 seat in North Florida while the GOP takes all the rest.

You can shut the Democrats out entirely by splitting Duval properly and attaching to the heavy Dem parts to Nassau County.

The only 2 questions I see are whether they yield 1 Orlando seat (most likely), or 2, and of course Pinellas County. Water contiguity abuse for Tampa/St. Petersburg isn't barred by the amendment.

[Sbane]

Or even adding St. Pete to areas to its south, and putting the rest of Pinnelas in one district. That could be done as well, though that could make that district too swingy for the GOP's taste.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if it doesn't specifically bar water contiguity abuse, it's tough to argue that areas that are not contiguously accessible except by boat constitute a "community of interest". If the GOP just opts to simply ignore the requirements altogether (not unlikely) they're just asking for a lawsuit, which could result in a court-drawn map, and thus an actually fair one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

St. Petersburg and Tampa are connected by a bridge, so that's not really an issue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But I do think a black Jacksonville to Tallahassee seat might not be something the GOP would oppose, Democrats do better in Jacksonville locally so the Jacksonville seat would be at best a swing district without violating the VRA by splitting up and diluting the black precincts, and FL-02 is still a swing district too. In fact it may have even voted for Sink. So just conceding one seat in northern Florida rather than risk losing two might be seen as the better option.

St. Petersburg and Tampa are connected by a bridge, so that's not really an issue.

But still it's tough to argue the part of St. Petersburg in FL-11 is part of a "community of interest" with the rest of the district.

[krazen1211]

Between the Devil Rays, the lightning, the cross newspaper delivery, among other things, the 2 cities certainly have things in common. They're urban cores of the same metro area.

I guess you'd have to place a Republican district in North Pinellas, the Castor district cutting across the bridge, and another Republican district entirely in Hillsborough.

[DrScholl]

The St. Petersburg, Tampa connection would probably be a violation, there's no logical reason to do so other than partisanship and the amendments prohibit that. The only reason it's drawn like that is to protect Young and it's borderline racial gerrymandering at that.

A Jacksonville-Tallahassee district may not stand up, being only plurality, the VRA is not always applied to such seats and it would be an obvious racial gerrymander. Depending on how you maneuver, you can get an Obama district or a McCain one completely within Duval County, down to about R+1.