National Tracking Poll Thread

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RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

They were hardly spectacular in 2008, missing the result in the seven most-polled states in the final week by around 2.5%, a slightly larger error than ARG or Zogby:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg

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IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.

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Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

It's cute that Republicans think that they can keep Romney's current margin with independents while increasing the share of the electorate that identify as Republicans.

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It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!!

I'd add that, if you're going to accuse almost all the pollsters in the country of lying about their methodology, then why even bother talking about any of the numbers they produce?

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Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.

Well, if someone thinks that a pollster is oversampling Democrats, and that pollster doesn't weight for party ID, then aren't they basically saying that the pollster is using a different method from the one the pollster claims to use?

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Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

They tout their stability. 

Indeed, Scott Rasmussen has argued that Romney did not actually receive much of a bounce from the first debate -- that instead an always-close race shifted a point or two in Romney's direction. His methodology doesn't allow, for example, for an event like Romney's success in the first debate to get Republicans more excited about voting.

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Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 

J.J. I think I have a much better understanding of what people in Middle America are thinking about this Bloomberg endorsement, and let me tell you, they are fired up about it. I'm hearing very, very positive things.

Lief, I've lived in Middle America.  Rudy Giuliani had trouble there.  Keep smoking though; it will help you get through the next week.

I think J.J.'s irony meter might need to be recalibrated.

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The case that Romney was ahead in the popular vote, while behind in the electoral vote, is looking pretty thin.

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Wait, so Romney is really only +1 with R+6 turnout?

Trying to hold in my evil laughter...

You've forgotten to unskew Rasmussen with Rasmussen's own party id numbers.