NY-20 Special Election

[Landslide Lyndon]

The political hack spin doctors are so pathetic aren't they?  Who do they think they are fooling?

One thing we can be thankful for: because the race remains in limbo, both parties have nothing to spin.
And when we will finally know the outcome in a couple of weeks (?), nobody will care by then.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

More on the outstanding absentees, from the Albany Times Union's Capitol Confidential Blog:



Edit: If the currently in absentees break as the counties voted, Murphy would lead by 158.  That's without taking into account the military absentees.  I think they are included in the overall absentee numbers.  I haven't tried to specially allocate them.

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

By the way...
I know about the Senate revote in New Hampshire in 1974.
But was there ever a House revote?

[Landslide Lyndon]

So apparently the Democratic model was pretty accurate.

By the way...
I know about the Senate revote in New Hampshire in 1974.
But was there ever a House revote?

Only if you assume the absentees, including the overseas and military votes, will break exactly the same way as the county votes, and ignore the partisan makeup of the votes already in.  Maybe they will break the same way.  Maybe they won't.   Plus, we don't know the extent of the provisional ballots and where they are out from.   And we don't know which absentees will trickle in over the next few weeks.

The race is far too close to make any guess based on a blind projection of absentee votes.  We'll just have to wait and see.  If I had to predict, I'd put it as a slightly lean Murphy at this point.

They decided to take a shot based on the only hard numbers they have.  Can't blame them for that.

And the absentees are anyway a coin flip. Just look at what happened in Minnesota. Everybody expected that Franken would carry them, but not by such a large margin. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Someone needs to go back and bump threads from Republicans declaring Buchanan the clear winner and Jennings's challenge a joke while now declaring Coleman's challenge and Franken not being seated as legitimate.

At least Jennings didn't object to seating Buchanan while the contest was sorted out. Likewise here, if Coleman and the GOP were willing to seat Franken now provisionally, they can go ahead and sue for the next 6 years to try to overturn it if they wish.

Are you insinuating something?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I hope it stays tied.

Stupid question: what happens then?
Is the winner decided by tossing a coin?

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/the-latest-score-in-ny-20-unknown.php#more

According to the Murphy campaign Delaware county finished counting AND the absentees, and Murphy netted 20 votes.
The result couldn't be confirmed because the county workers had gone home.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Murphy will most likely win.

That's counting that it doesn't turn into Minnesota-sen 2.0

What are the election laws like in New York regarding challenges? Hopefully they don't allow endless appeals well beyond inauguration day like Minnesota does.

Imagine if the Presidency was like that. Gore could've just kept the Florida results held up in court forever and kept the White House vacant. Obviously anyone who supports Coleman's challenge now would've supported this as well.

The difference is that the US President is not elected by the voters. He is elected by the Electors. While it would have been only sane and proper to just deny Florida its electors entirely, as was done in comparable circumstances in 1872 (but not since), the remedy of seating the leader provisionally (which would be sane and proper here but isn't allowed by MN state law) was just not available for the selection of Electors.

If Florida was denied its electors, wouldn't that have taken the election to the House with the electoral votes standing at 267 (or 266 if one still didn't vote) for Gore to 246 for Bush? And presumably Bush would've still won because the GOP had the house majority, after the 2000 election. The senate was 50/50, after the 2000 election, with Vice-president Gore as the 51st Democratic vote, so Lieberman would've (presumably) been made the Vice-president to Bush.

Now, wouldn't that be a match made in heaven?

[Landslide Lyndon]

With Tedisco challenging so many ballots, every current vote count is pretty useless.
Wake me up when the (legal) dust settles.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New numbers:


Murphy +264

Murphy 79,722
Tedisco 79,458

"Landslide" Scott goes to Washington.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When all else fails, deny reality.

Wasn't that George W. Bush's motto?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ouch for Steele.

The one to blame here is Tedisco. His campaign would make Rudy Giuliani and Michael Dukakis proud.
Steele helped him all he could, but nothing could save such an inept campaigner.