Illinois 2010

[muon2]

Candidates not yet in the race will all be declaring in the next few weeks. Since petitions start to circulate in August, the candidates will want to have organizations well underway.

[muon2]

Haha, cute.

We'll see, she'd be a game changer.  But yeah, she'd lose almost all of her ridiculously big warchest she's already collected to become governor, and she's always wanted to be governor.

The fundraising is a big deal, and she's got that lined up for Gov. The polling looks attractive against Gianoulias for Sen, but he's been a great fundraiser in that race so far. If she ran for Sen he might still run as well and the early Feb primary that would help her for Gov does not help much against Alexi. Alexi got into the Treas office as an unknown in 2006 with support from Obama by beating Madigan's handpicked candidate.

[muon2]

I think Madigan will decide to enter the Senate race.  She will get elected for 6 years instead of 4, there are no term limits, she's out of her stepfather's shadow and the incumbent Senator is less likable than the incumbent Governor.

No term limits for IL gov either.

[muon2]

Schako out:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/08/schakowsky_will_not_run_for_senate.html

Her husband has always been a liability in a statewide race. Over the weekend I heard that this would keep her out. It seems that Sweet heard the same things.

[muon2]

shocker: Madigan running for reelection as AG.

 And with that, Kennedy and Mark Kirk are set to announce.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Big_news_out_of_Illinois.html
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Kirk_running_for_the_Senate.html

I'd say it's a surprise but not a shocker. As I've noted earlier the Senate isn't a great fit given her family and state campaign fund. The protracted budget mess leaves the Gov's mansion less attractive for 2011 than it would have appeared a couple months ago. Petitions can circulate in four weeks so a decision was needed to free up the Dem field. The state has awaited her decision, and now the dominoes can fall.

[muon2]

Who picks up Kirk's house district now?

On the D side State Sen Michael Bond has already announced, and State Sen Susan Garrett may also jump in. State Rep Beth Coulson is often mentioned on the R side since she consistently wins in a 60% D district and would likely appeal to Kirk's crossover base.

[muon2]

Who picks up Kirk's house district now?

On the D side State Sen Michael Bond has already announced, and State Sen Susan Garrett may also jump in. State Rep Beth Coulson is often mentioned on the R side since she consistently wins in a 60% D district and would likely appeal to Kirk's crossover base.

How ironic that Coulson district is almost the same in terms of partisanship too Kirk's district(Which also ironically voted almost as Democratic as the State as a whole). Obama got 61% there in his district I think. She is also a female of course and I would guess she would be fairly moderate to win her current constituency. How good is she at fundraising?

Top drawer. She generated over 400K for her reelection in 2008.

[muon2]

Who picks up Kirk's house district now?

On the D side State Sen Michael Bond has already announced, and State Sen Susan Garrett may also jump in. State Rep Beth Coulson is often mentioned on the R side since she consistently wins in a 60% D district and would likely appeal to Kirk's crossover base.

How ironic that Coulson district is almost the same in terms of partisanship too Kirk's district(Which also ironically voted almost as Democratic as the State as a whole). Obama got 61% there in his district I think. She is also a female of course and I would guess she would be fairly moderate to win her current constituency. How good is she at fundraising?

Top drawer. She generated over 400K for her reelection in 2008.

As I suggested might happen, Coulson is in the race for IL-10.

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[muon2]

There's a new candidate for US Senate in IL on the D side. David Hoffman was the inspector general for Chicago and is a former federal prosecutor. He's hired Axelrod's firm to run the campaign. 

From the Chicago Tribune:

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[muon2]

Hoffman's working with Hillary's old pollster too.... a bit confused I'd assume Axelrod's people would line up behind Alexi

I think the previous push for Chris Kennedy shows that there is a lot of concern among Dems with Alexi as the Senate standard bearer.