Nevada - KNTV/Rasmussen: Trump + 3 (4-way)

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This is Classy Rassy, so take it with a grain of salt. Nevada might be close right now, but I'd bet a lot of money that it won't be in November, unless we see Trump gaining substantially among Latinos. He's not winning this state with less than 20% of the Latino vote, mark my words.

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*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL

It's not about ignoring the facts, it's about facing them. Unless Latino turnout goes way down, or Trump improves among Latinos, he would need a ridiculous swing among white voters without a college degree, something like a 30-point swing. Short of any of these three events occurring, it's not mathematically plausible for Trump to win Nevada.

[Xing]

This is Classy Rassy, so take it with a grain of salt. Nevada might be close right now, but I'd bet a lot of money that it won't be in November, unless we see Trump gaining substantially among Latinos. He's not winning this state with less than 20% of the Latino vote, mark my words.

Only Trump isn't under 20% with Latinos in Nevada.  Last NBC/Marist poll showed the race 65/30 with Latinos in NV, Obama beat Romney 74/24 by comparison.  Don't know any polling showing Trump under 20% in the state and most national polling (outside of Latino advocacy based) shows him in the 20-30% range. 

There's a reason to trust these polls. They include Spanish interviews, which picks up on voters that polls such as these do not. These polls were very accurate in 2012, more so than state polls in states like CO and NV, which didn't merely undersample Latinos, but didn't conduct any interviews in Spanish, which meant that their polls overestimated Romney's support among Latinos.

[Xing]

*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL

It's not about ignoring the facts, it's about facing them. Unless Latino turnout goes way down, or Trump improves among Latinos, he would need a ridiculous swing among white voters without a college degree, something like a 30-point swing. Short of any of these three events occurring, it's not mathematically plausible for Trump to win Nevada.

You're assuming Clinton will be able to mobilize the Democratic turnout machine in Nevada to the same extent Obama could, which is a questionable assumption.

Considering that Trump has pretty much no organization, I think the difference between Hillary's turnout machine and Trump's is comparable to the difference between Obama's and Romney's.