Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

He's good at organization, fundraising and media- which is what the lieutenant does. When there was polled "who would make a good Liberal leader" both now and in 2007, his Quebec favourables were, well... in line with the national trend. I'll try and find the polls for you.

[RogueBeaver]

All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus. I usually agree with MacDonald, but not this time. Brison can't be nominated and LeBland is probably marginally better than McGuinty.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/opinion/MacDonald+Rumours+Liberals+demise+greatly+exaggerated/5785669/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

[RogueBeaver]

Leading policy resolutions.

http://convention.liberal.ca/

[RogueBeaver]

http://convention.liberal.ca/lpc-governance/18-democratic-renewal/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/21-electoral-reform/
http://convention.liberal.ca/governance/79-preferential-balloting-system/

I strongly back all of these

Wouldn't electoral reform require a constitutional amendment? At any rate, most of these proposals look decent. Too bad you're stuck with President Copps for the next 2 years.

[RogueBeaver]

I won't post anything from That Site here, but the new poll which has the Liberals tied with the Dippers shows only a small pro-Dipper seat gap.

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

Atlantic: Only the Newfoundland ones are truly safe.

TGP: LeBlanc, because he has a one-way relationship with the media.

Minion: No idea. The NDP will have a new leader in March.

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

This would literally be a nightmare.

Why? She won by over 15.

[RogueBeaver]

All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus.

Called it. If Rae runs, he wins the permanent leadership.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337657/le-chant-du-cygne-de-bob-rae

[RogueBeaver]

I have no problem with Rae as leader so long as he adopts all of Brison's policies on anything dealing with any amount of money.

And adopting Trudeau's energy policy. But I doubt Brison can get elimination of capital gains tax through a convention where weed decriminalization is on the agenda.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201004/30/01-4276086-justin-trudeau-appuie-lexploitation-des-sables-bitumineux.php

[RogueBeaver]

Remember the CPC has a majority, that means if we want to win (and I want us to win) we need to take their seats. Taking every NDP seat still results in a CPC majority. We should focus on taking so many seats from the CPC that they are reduced below the NDP. If that means we have to run on a "right-wing" platform, than so be it. I can back that.

If the NDP collapses here in Quebec, it won't be Liberals who benefit. Either we Tories split ROQ booty with the Bloc or grab it all for ourselves. You guys get your Montreal-area seats (including mine) back.

Also, Hebert should know better than to say "anti-Rae Grits want Dalton McGuinty to run." Two sides of the same Establishment coin.

[RogueBeaver]

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

[RogueBeaver]

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.

[RogueBeaver]

ROFL. Given that Hill Times crap she wrote a few weeks ago, Rat Pack indeed.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1097837--tim-harper-sheila-copps-reinvents-herself-as-agent-of-change

[RogueBeaver]

New Abacus poll says CPC 40%, NDP 31%, Liberals 18%...I guess dreaming of second place was fun for the Liberals while it lasted...

Abacus? I'll wait for CROP, Nanos or Leger, thx. Liberals haven't been that low for the past 5 months.

[RogueBeaver]

Of all things going on in Canadian politics right now, federal election polls are the most meaningless.

Ottawa CW seems to be that Rae4P is a done deal, just awaiting the formal announcement after Copps is elected and repeals that rule.

So forum Grits, how would you guys react if Rae run for permanent? I'm confident in predicting that neither LeBlanc nor McGuinty, especially LeBlanc, would run in said scenario.

[RogueBeaver]

This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.
 

[RogueBeaver]

Rae as leader is probably the worst idea ever. They'll get nowhere in Ontario, and will just drag the NDP down with them there, too. Unless that's their objective. Who knows with them? The media is obsessed with the guy.

One of 3 reasons: a) because he keeps referring to his pledge instead of making an unconditional statement b) the media wants to start something with nothing c) media knows something we don't. I'd say a combination of A & B myself.

Teddy: Anti-Rae material hardly needs such a minor addition to it.

[RogueBeaver]

Another Rae article from Le Devoir. We'd all really appreciate it if the media would pay attention to actual candidates like Kennedy, LeBlanc and David McGuinty.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337811/bob-rae-ne-souhaite-pas-etre-le-chef-permanent-du-parti-liberal-du-canada

[RogueBeaver]

OK forum Grits, who's your choice for leader in a Kennedy/LeBlanc/(David) McGuinty race. I'd say Kennedy is your best shot myself. Only possible negative is being tied to the OLP, but a) no one remembers it b) he left before Dad really went downhill.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, I'm hardly anti-Brison. But given 2006 (which still puzzles me in some ways 5 years later), I'll believe it when I see it.

CSD: So the best comparison is with Sharp, and I'll leave it there.

[RogueBeaver]

Endorsements...

Eyking: Brison or McGuinty, depending who runs.

Dion: Kennedy.

Fry: Kennedy.

Scarpaleggia: Kennedy.

Neville: Not McGuinty.

Sgro: LeBlanc or Kennedy.

Coderre: LeBlanc

Easter: McGuinty

Cuzner: LeBlanc

Bennett: Kennedy

Goodale: Neutral

Cotler: No idea.

Trudeau: Neutral

Chretien: LeBlanc

Martin: Neutral

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe. Though Kennedy's the only candidate with any kind of retail skills.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/are-primaries-the-spark-for-liberal-spirit/article2266175/

[RogueBeaver]

Wah wah what? Kennedy is fluent (Brison is Harper-style borderline IIRC) but like Rae, the accent is quite noticeable.

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe Kennedy's French is better now, but it stank like sh**t when he ran for Liberal leader in 2006. He was billed as being fluently bilingual and then when he opened his mouth in the leaders debates - it turned out that his French was dreadful.

One can be forgiven for not speaking perfect French, but its a big problem when someone boasts about being perfectly bilingual and it turns out that they speak French like my ass chews gum!

The only one who meets the platinum standard of these contenders is LeBlanc.