Who knows whether the actual result will bear out what the state polls are telling us, but Biden's comparative resilience in Rust Belt polling is the most interesting trend in US politics.
I don't know whether this has more to do with who feels that Biden is delivering for them (and who doesn't), Trump's appeal having shifted toward Sun Belt demographics since 2016, or changes to the states themselves.
That Trump will be running as a Florida Man, rather than as a New Yorker, is the cherry on top of it all. Instead of Queens vs. Manhattan, it's Palm Beach vs. Rehoboth Beach.
It has very little to do with what state Trump is from it has to do with inflation, there is a reason why Trump is ahead of Biden rents are too high and unemployment is up. People got lazy again and stop working. I have a roommate that's given up on finding a job