Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[cvparty]

NBC/WSJ:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/amid-controversy-trump-s-approval-remains-low-steady-n775736

Trump's overall approval rating in this poll seems fishy to me.  If Democrats disapprove of him more than Republicans approve of him, and 35% of Independents approve, then how did they arrive at 40%?  Did they weight Republicans significantly more than Democrats?

magic

[cvparty]

If Trump's current disapproval ratings in each of the states listed are any indication of his 2020 performance, he'll be absolutely destroyed in the Northeast. The West isn't looking too good for him either. I'm curious how he'll perform in Utah; no doubt he'll win it, but by how much? And the fact that Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin have an effectively equal disapproval of Trump is very interesting.

He'll win UT by double digits, probably by more than 20 points. Democrats have de facto no chance to carry the state. 30% is the absolute ceiling. UT may not be safe Trump, but it's still safe not D.

could be interesting if Evan runs again

[cvparty]

so he's -20 in approval, how would this translate if the election were held today? how many of the disapproving would vote for him?

[cvparty]

Since the Washington Post already analyzed Trump's positive or negative swing from his election results in each state to his current approval ratings, I figured I'd go a step further and see what Trump's trend is. Of course, the trend is comparing the state's swing to the national swing and seeing whether it is higher or lower. So, that'd give us a better idea of how each state is responding to the Trump Presidency.

Vote | Approve | Swing | Trend | State

46% | 40% | -06% | +00% | United States
62% | 55% | -07% | -01%  | Alabama
51% | 51% | +00%| +06% | Alaska
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Arizona
61% | 53% | -08% | -02%  | Arkansas
31% | 30% | -01% | +05% | California
43% | 38% | -05% | +01% | Colorado
41% | 34% | -07% | -01%  | Connecticut
42% | 38% | -04% | +02% | Delaware
49% | 42% | -07% | -01%  | Florida
50% | 43% | -07% | -01%  | Georgia
30% | 35% | +05%| +11% | Hawaii
59% | 53% | -06% | +00% | Idaho
38% | 36% | -02% | +04% | Illinois
56% | 47% | -09% | -03%  | Indiana
51% | 45% | -06% | +00% | Iowa
56% | 53% | -03% | +03% | Kansas
63% | 53% | -10% | -04%  | Kentucky
58% | 51% | -07% | -01%  | Louisiana
45% | 42% | -03% | +03% | Maine
34% | 30% | -04% | +02% | Maryland
33% | 29% | -04% | +02% | Massachusetts
47% | 42% | -05% | +01% | Michigan
45% | 39% | -06% | +00% | Minnesota
58% | 48% | -10% | -04%  | Mississippi
56% | 49% | -07% | -01%  | Missouri
56% | 56% | +00%| +06% | Montana
59% | 52% | -07% | -01%  | Nebraska
46% | 44% | -02% | +04% | Nevada
46% | 45% | -01% | +05% | New Hampshire
41% | 36% | -05% | +01% | New Jersey
40% | 37% | -03% | +03% | New Mexico
37% | 31% | -06% | +00% | New York
50% | 42% | -08% | -02%  | North Carolina
63% | 59% | -04% | +02% | North Dakota
51% | 47% | -04% | +02% | Ohio
65% | 54% | -11% | -05%  | Oklahoma
39% | 38% | -01% | +05% | Oregon
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Pennsylvania
39% | 37% | -02% | +04% | Rhode Island
55% | 50% | -05% | +01% | South Carolina
62% | 57% | -05% | +01% | South Dakota
61% | 52% | -09% | -03%  | Tennessee
52% | 42% | -10% | -04%  | Texas
45% | 50% | +05%| +11% | Utah
30% | 26% | -04% | +02% | Vermont
44% | 39% | -05% | +01% | Virginia
37% | 36% | -01% | +05% | Washington
68% | 60% | -08% | -02%  | West Virginia
47% | 43% | -04% | +02% | Wisconsin
68% | 56% | -12% | -06%  | Wyoming

Top 10 states trending away from Trump

-06% | Wyoming
-05% | Oklahoma
-04% | Kentucky
-04% | Mississippi
-04% | Texas
-03% | Indiana
-03% | Tennessee
-02% | Arkansas
-02% | North Carolina
-02% | West Virginia

Top 10 states trending towards Trump

+11% | Hawaii
+11% | Utah
+06% | Alaska
+06% | Montana
+05% | California
+05% | New Hampshire
+05% | Oregon
+05% | Washington
+04% | Illinois
+04% | Nevada
+04% | Rhode Island*

*Three-way tie for 9th place

Isn't this an apples-to-oranges comparison? Equating Trump's 2016 vote share with his approval ratings assumes that every Trump voter approved of him / that every disapproving person wouldn't vote for him

[cvparty]

I really only care about state polls, we desperately need more of them. Its ridiculous there has been like one poll of Pennsylvania since the election.

[cvparty]

?

[cvparty]

Never exactly understood why Hawaii is usually so pro-incumbent. What's even more interesting is that New Jersey also seems to be souring even more than it already was on Trump, but it's usually another Pro-incumbent state. I wonder if it has to do with Trump's close association to Christie?

I think it's because Hawaii's largely isolated and independent, so they're more indifferent about the mainland affairs