2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My guess, by the way, is that Johnson is gonna announce a primary challenge to Menendez after all this is over. This primary challenge will get a lot more media coverage than the gubernatorial primary, in part because Menendez is such a tarred candidate but also because Johnson is the perfect foil against him, as his large platform plank was ethics reform and Johnson has proven himself a capable fundraiser (being black doesn't hurt as well).

I suppose that's possible-- the ethics angle would be a perfect contrast. My hope is that Rush Holt comes out of retirement to primary Menendez, or Pallone, but I would certainly support Johnson if it came down to him or Bobby.

Holt would be the perfect candidate for the Dems to nominate in a Trump midterm.

Exactly! He would be the antidote to Trump -- a positive, intelligent public servant who knows how to get things done. I almost wanted him to win in 2013, and he would be probably favored against Menendez in the primary

Endorsed over Menedez in a heartbeat.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT results page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-primary-elections

Polls close in an hour.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote coming in:

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Jack Ciattarelli
293   48.3%
Kim Guadagno
204   33.6
Hirsh Singh
42   6.9
Joseph Rullo
38   6.3
Steven Rogers
30   4.9
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
189   52.1%
John Wisniewski
65   17.9
Jim Johnson
53   14.6
Raymond Lesniak
41   11.3
 Others   15   4.1
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guadagno in the lead as the early vote continues to drift in:

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
770   39.9%
Jack Ciattarelli
682   35.3
Joseph Rullo
209   10.8
Steven Rogers
181   9.4
Hirsh Singh
88   4.6
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
1,939   67.6%
John Wisniewski
373   13.0
Jim Johnson
204   7.1
Raymond Lesniak
160   5.6
 Others   191   6.7
<1% reporting (0 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I do not yet concur with the Atlantic's call. Well under even 5% in still.

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
4,301   49.4%
Jack Ciattarelli
2,550   29.3
Joseph Rullo
683   7.8
Steven Rogers
619   7.1
Hirsh Singh
555   6.4
1% reporting (86 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
6,223   50.6%
John Wisniewski
2,431   19.8
Jim Johnson
1,929   15.7
Raymond Lesniak
679   5.5
 Others   1,034   8.4
1% reporting (86 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wulfric Projection: MURPHY WINS DEM PRIMARY

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
19,142   48.5%
John Wisniewski
8,237   20.9
Jim Johnson
6,661   16.9
Raymond Lesniak
2,925   7.4
William Brennan
1,779   4.5
Mark Zinna
706   1.8
5% reporting (333 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
12,190   52.1%
Jack Ciattarelli
6,057   25.9
Hirsh Singh
2,033   8.7
Joseph Rullo
1,823   7.8
Steven Rogers
1,301   5.6
6% reporting (394 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd give the GOP primary some time, Ciattarrelli has a good chance imo. Hopefully there's a lot of anti-Christie Republicans voting. I'd vote for him over Phil "Goldman Sachs" Murphy.

Yeah, I'm waiting for more out of Essex and Middlesex, where Cittarelli has an early lead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wulfric Projection: GUADAGNO WINS R PRIMARY

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
30,497   48.4%
Jack Ciattarelli
17,751   28.1
Hirsh Singh
6,192   9.8
Joseph Rullo
4,619   7.3
Steven Rogers
4,015   6.4
26% reporting (1,675 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This can be called for Guadagno at this point.

D+1.

You never know...

It's over. Accept it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
47,074   49.3%
Jack Ciattarelli
25,703   26.9
Hirsh Singh
9,553   10.0
Joseph Rullo
6,954   7.3
Steven Rogers
6,231   6.5
36% reporting (2,315 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
84,768   46.1%
John Wisniewski
43,736   23.8
Jim Johnson
38,146   20.7
Raymond Lesniak
9,578   5.2
 Others   7,635   4.2
36% reporting (2,315 of 6,386 precincts)

Bold: WULFRIC projected winner

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I believe DDHQ already called Guadagno and Murphy the winners.

On a scale of most risky to least risky, it goes DDHQ, then Me, then AP/NYT.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next week in Virginia should be more interesting.

The dem primary will take a very long time to call since NOVA always comes in last.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kim Guadagno
64,762   49.6%   
Jack Ciattarelli
36,136   27.7   
Hirsh Singh
12,883   9.9   
Joseph Rullo
8,799   6.7   
Steven Rogers
8,047   6.2   
53% reporting (3,374 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Philip Murphy
134,836   47.6%   
Jim Johnson
62,030   21.9   
John Wisniewski
59,952   21.2   
Raymond Lesniak
16,431   5.8   
 Others   9,763   3.4   
53% reporting (3,374 of 6,386 precincts)

Bold: WULFRIC projected winner

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murphy is now losing in Warren County.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Fierce battle for second place between Johnson and Wisniewski.  It might come down to Burlington County if they ever report.

We also have Salem county and the ED vote for Somerset county.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kim Guadagno
82,109   48.2%   
Jack Ciattarelli
49,344   29.0   
Hirsh Singh
16,831   9.9   
Joseph Rullo
11,472   6.7   
Steven Rogers
10,466   6.1   
70% reporting (4,465 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Philip Murphy
169,959   47.8%   
Jim Johnson
78,621   22.1   
John Wisniewski
76,640   21.6   
Raymond Lesniak
18,262   5.1   
 Others   12,014   3.4   
70% reporting (4,465 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kim Guadagno
106,832   47.3%   
Jack Ciattarelli
69,035   30.5   
Hirsh Singh
22,145   9.8   
Joseph Rullo
14,747   6.5   
Steven Rogers
13,308   5.9   
93% reporting (5,915 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Philip Murphy
228,889   48.5%   
Jim Johnson
102,812   21.8   
John Wisniewski
102,077   21.6   
Raymond Lesniak
22,905   4.9   
 Others   15,256   3.2   
93% reporting (5,915 of 6,386 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I wonder what would have happened if only Johnson or only Wiz was in the race, instead of both of them splitting the anti-Murphy vote.

Combining their % gives you 43.5% to Murphy's 48.4%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Governor
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Kim Guadagno
112,680   46.8%
Jack Ciattarelli
74,839   31.1
Hirsh Singh
23,576   9.8
Joseph Rullo
15,690   6.5
Steven Rogers
14,057   5.8
99% reporting (6,308 of 6,386 precincts)

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Philip Murphy
238,040   48.2%
Jim Johnson
108,301   21.9
John Wisniewski
107,308   21.7
Raymond Lesniak
24,027   4.9
William Brennan
11,061   2.2
Mark Zinna
5,115   1.0
99% reporting (6,308 of 6,386 precincts)

----

I take this opportunity to announce my endorsement of Murphy. Let's move past the Christie machine.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The below are maps of where Murphy and Guadagno were strongest and weakest last night. These maps pair them up against all opposing votes combined. Since both Murphy and Guadagno received under a majority of the vote, it is not surprising that the opposition got a majority in many counties. But the strongest and weakest areas for each may be telling for November:


http://i.imgur.com/c0Gaa9D.png

As you can see, Murphy was strongest in the strongest democratic areas in the state, Essex and Houston, where a big margin will be crucial. He also had a majority in two counties that voted for Christie four years ago - Union and Passiac. His weakest areas were strongly republican counties that he doesn't need to worry about.


http://i.imgur.com/xxukDdr.png

Guadagno's map is a little troubling to say the least. She ran up the score in many republican counties in the southern part of the state, but in the swing counties of Gloucester, Burlington, and Middlesex, her opposition got more than 60% of the vote (Murphy also lost to his opposition here, but he at least exceeded 40%). In Somerset and Essex, her opposition got more than 70% of the vote, a major embarrassment. She also lagged in the strongly republican counties of Warren and Sussex.

Also, for what it's worth, this is the total R vote vs. total D vote calculation:

DEMS: 496,012 (67.3%)
GOP: 241,192 (32.7%)

Total Turnout: 737,204

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This piece is mostly on VA, but has some mentions of NJ: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/signs-and-portents/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bump, as this is happening today.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Interesting exit poll, per MSNBC:

11% say vote was to support Trump
29% say vote was to oppose Trump
57% say Trump not a factor

Menendez at 35-53 approvals

Republican party at 30-66 approval

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL, Phil Murphy wins right away.