IA PrimR: Zogby: Romney Holds Strong IA Lead; Huckabee in 2nd

[Inmate Trump]

The only question is really if Romney will even get a bounce from winning this.

NH frequently goes its own way, so I don't know if IA momentum would help Romney in NH.  However, I think the results of IA and NH will collectively matter for the primaries that follow.  If Romney wins both, the headlines will say that Romney's 2-0, while Giuliani's 0-2.  Whereas if Romney wins IA and Giuliani wins NH, Romney's loss in NH will be cushioned at least a little by the fact that he already has the one victory from IA.

It depends, I think, on who wins IA and/or NH on the Democratic side as to whether or not Romney gets a boost elsewhere.  If Obama wins IA, that will greatly overshadow Romney's win to the point where it really won't matter that he won it and could allow other candidates a chance.  Same thing if Romney wins NH and Obama does as well...it will overshadow Romney's win so much as to effect the other Republican candidates chances in a good way for them.

In other words, Romney's worst fear during this primary isn't one of the other Republican candidates; it's Barack Obama.

Now, if Obama wins IA and loses in NH, but Romney wins both, the win in NH for Romney will be what matters most in the other early states--that's the one he'll get his boost from.

[Inmate Trump]

Yeah, but conversely, if Clinton wins comfortably in Iowa, and it looks like she's cruising towards the nomination, the GOP will be more concerned about electability, because they feel a much stronger visceral Clinton hatred than Obama hatred, and the thought of Hillary Clinton becoming president terrifies them in a way that Obama doesn't.  If electability is a bigger factor, it helps Giuliani.

True.  But for that to happen, she's going to have to win, as you said, comfortably, and even though I think she'll win Iowa, I don't think it'll be by a large number of votes.  Winning in Iowa though, by however few votes, will impact her wins in NH and elsewhere.  So in that case, it could make the Republicans start to consider the electability issue a little more closely before it's too late, possibly resulting in a Giuliani or McCain win.

Even if they get the chance to think about electability, I don't think they'll do it very wisely.  This was my beef with the Democrats in 2004, when they nominated one of the candidates least likely to win the general.  And if the Republicans nominate someone like Romney, they'll be repeating the Democrats' 2004 mistake.

Also, if it looks like Clinton is running away with it, then some of those New Hampshire Independents might gravitate towards the GOP primary in NH, rather than bother with the non-competitive Dem. race.  I would think that Giuliani would be more likely to win some of those Independents than Romney.

That's true too.  I would hope this might help Giuliani win there, because he's going to need one or the other (IA or NH) to get the nomination.  Rudy doesn't deserve the White House, but he does deserve to be the Republican nominee, especially considering the alternatives (excluding my pick Ron Paul, because everybody knows he's not going to win anything). 

[Inmate Trump]

If Huckabee knocks off Romney in Iowa does New Hampshire swing to Giuliani (or, less likely, McCain)?

If Huckabee wins Iowa, I think Romney still will win NH.  Huckabee could pick up a few other early states though like NV or SC.....enough so that he'll matter.

[Inmate Trump]

If Romney loses Iowa to Huckabee, I think it's over. Guliani probably takes New Hampshire under those circumstances and regardless I think Romney would be on his way out. Let's not forget that he's in single digits in pretty much every other state except the early ones. He needsa perfect string in order to have a chance on Super Tuesday.

Actually, now that I stop and think about it more, you're probably right.  A Huckabee win in Iowa would help Giuliani a lot.