How big of a bounce will Mitt get..........

[Lincoln Republican]

when Rick and Newt endorse him, and start saying nice things about him?

We will assume they do. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A few points. Likely rough parity with Obama for a while. I expect the polling to be very tight or somewhat pro-Romney over the summer, but I don't think that much will change structurally.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't think it will put Romney anywhere close to consistently beating BHO in the polls. Romney will have to do that himself.

And I think he will. Romney will be the one who gets to frame the whole race. It'll be refreshing.

[Lincoln Republican]

I don't think it will put Romney anywhere close to consistently beating BHO in the polls. Romney will have to that himself.

And I think he will. Romney will be the one who gets to frame the whole race. It'll be refreshing.

Thank you for your comments, and welcome to the forum.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't think it will put Romney anywhere close to consistently beating BHO in the polls. Romney will have to that himself.

And I think he will. Romney will be the one who gets to frame the whole race. It'll be refreshing.

Romney would be able to do that if he weren't painfully unlikeable and, more importantly, uncharismatic, but as it is he'll struggle horribly once he's facing somebody whom he can't nontrivially outspend. I don't think Romney is capable of winning this election. Obama is still capable of losing it, but he'll have to actively do so or the world will have to actively make him do so.

Welcome to the forum.

[California8429]

Nothing polling wise. What he'll be praying for is their volunteers and donors supporting him, which seems unlikely at the moment.

[tmthforu94]

RCP currently has Obama up by 5. I say, once the nomination is wrapped up, it'll be cut in half, around 2.5.

[perdedor]

At best, Romney probably gets nothing.

If (when) Santorum and Gingrich try to pull a 'j/k' and ask everyone to forget the past year of hell they've raised about Romney's candidacy, it will only reinforce the empty suit moniker that currently haunts the GOP; especially for Romney who will have no choice but to try and fake a genuine gratitude - which is something he is demonstrably awful at.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe a modest 1 or 2 point bounce, but whatever bounce he gets from Newtorum dripping out will be coming out of his convention bounce.

[Eraserhead]

Bounce? lol.

[America First]

when Rick and Newt endorse him, and start saying nice things about him?

We will assume they do. 

He may gain back the few points he lost between now and then.  Anything more is hopelessly optimistic thinking coming from Temple Rombot 3000.  Obama's attack ads of "populist garbage", to quote someone here, are going to be so successful and make him look worse than Gordon Gekko.

He is not going to lose because of the failure of the conservative vote to show up for him, but rather because of the failure of every moderate to vote for him.

[cavalcade]

RCP currently has Obama up by 5. I say, once the nomination is wrapped up, it'll be cut in half, around 2.5.

[Wisconsin+17]

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FTFY.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Newt's not gonna endorse him.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Newt as good as endorsed him just the other day...

[sentinel]

Meh, how Romney is polling won't really matter until a few days after the Democratic National Convention.

[Smid]

Welcome to the Forum, Hagrid of the Deep!

I hope you'll wander a few boards down to the International Elections board, the International General Discussion board, and if it takes your fancy, the International What Ifs board.

[Tender Branson]

When I saw this thread after it was posted, I wanted to write:

"When Romney wraps up the nomination, Rasmussen will have him up for sure by about 10 against Obama."

But forgot to write it.

Today, Rasmussen has Romney at 48%, Obama at 43% ... halfway there

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Thanks Smid--but I'll tell ya... for an "international" member, my knowledge about international politics is very low. Who runs Australia these days?

As for Mitt's bounce... the staggered nature of these Republican drop-outs could actually be helpful. Mitt gets a bounce from Santorum's departure, may get a bounce from Newt's departure (just for the symbolism of it), and will get another bounce from the Convention. That's not so bad.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

When I saw this thread after it was posted, I wanted to write:

"When Romney wraps up the nomination, Rasmussen will have him up for sure by about 10 against Obama."

But forgot to write it.

Today, Rasmussen has Romney at 48%, Obama at 43% ... halfway there

What I don't understand is, why would Rasmussen, a very respected pollster who actually got all states correct in 2004, was almost spot on and better than gallup nationally in 2008, deliberately make their polls more favorable towards the GOP? Don't they care about their brand more than they do about propping up one party?

[Wisconsin+17]

Especially since the enthusiasm gap doesn't assist Mitt.

[Democratic Hawk]

Especially since the enthusiasm gap doesn't assist Mitt.

Don't like Mitt much do you, Ben? Being a left-leaning Christian Democrat, Rick Santorum ain't my candidate (but its unlikely that any Republican this side of Richard Nixon would have been) but he's more of a conviction politician than the valueless cipher. I can respect that. On the other hand, Mitt Romney is for Mitt Romney given this is a man, who has completely renounced his past record the minute he decided to run for president