@Tender: Obama lost Louisiana by 17 in 2012 while winning the election by 4. I suppose this 10 point swing in margin would suggest a national PV margin of 14 for Clinton, correct?
Another possibility: the regional polarization that so marked elections involving Barack Obama is no longer as severe. Many white people in the Mountain and and Deep South who used to vote Democratic for Carter or Clinton distrusted Barack Obama because he is ... I need not say it. Can they 'come home'? Maybe to some extent.
There will not be a 10-point national swing in the vote from Obama to Clinton even in a landslide. The biggest large swings are likely in states that Barack Obama lost by huge margins. Even swings are for small margins in close elections.
Of course we might also see a Trump collapse this time.
I was obviously just taking a shot at our resident sweaty dog, pbrower. No need for #analysis.
