Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 167,642 valid votes were cast yesterday (Thursday); the accepted ballot total stands at 1,830,076 votes: 71.75% of total 2014 turnout. By comparison, around 101,000 people voted on this day in 2014.

Early vote totals are 128% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 138% Wednesday).

No racial or gender shifts of significance in total figures Thursday - looks like the electorate is baked in at this point. The electorate that voted Thursday was 56% white, 30% black and 14% other (was 56/30/14 on Wednesday). Thursday's electorate was 56% female, compared to 56% on Wednesday. 

Currently, 18.4% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 17.5% on Wednesday). On Thursday, 26% of all voters were under 40 (compared to 24% on Wednesday). Today, the under 50 crowd became one-third of the electorate for the first time this year.

Code:

White	1060591	58.0% (-0.2)
Black	548450	30.0% (0.0)
Latino	25976         1.4% (0.0)
Asian	24395         1.3% (0.0)
Other	170664       9.3% (+0.1)

Female	1001821	54.7% (0.0)
Male		779376	42.6% (-0.1)
Unknown	48879       2.7% (+0.1)

18-29	151194	8.3%   (+0.4)
30-39	185167	10.1%   (+0.5)
40-49       274835	15.0%  (+0.4)
50-64       588354	32.1%  (-0.2)
65+         583060      31.9%  (-1.1)
Unknown	 47466      2.6%    (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

I've also taken the liberty of redoing the Georgia Votes numbers below the ones shown above in a way I find more relevant: showing each group's share of the electorate. Here you go:

Full-size image

[Annatar]

Very informative thread so far I must say, I have a question, why is the "other" share of the electorate double so far what it was in 2014, 12% vs 6%, surely Hispanic population growth is not that rapid, is it just White and Black voters being identified as other.

[Podgy the Bear]

Will be great to have President Trump in Macon, GA on Sunday!  Im sure it will have a huge turnout!  Weather is looking horrible for the whole state on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms likely.  Will be interesting how this impacts turnout.  Regardless, excited to see Georgia's future under the direction of Governor Kemp!!

Shades of 2002--when George W. Bush came to Georgia the weekend before the election--and then there was terrible weather on Election Day.  Both of these had considerable impact on the political earthquake in Georgia that year and what has happened in Georgia since then.

But times have changed:
1) Georgia's demographics have changed drastically--the minority vote now exceeds 40%.
2) The tremendous early voting (not nearly as significant in 2002) will have neutralized anything the predicted weather would do.
3) In the immediate post 9-11 world, Bush was far more popular in 2002 than Trump is today.    W could have gone anywhere that year to move votes to the Republicans (and many Democrats became Republican in Georgia that year).  Trump is basically confined to turn out the current Republican base and hope they have voted.

It may very well be a Governor Kemp in 2019.    The Democrats in Georgia have gone into a deep hole over the past 16 years and have a lot to do to dig out.    But they are coming back in a huge way this year and are not looking back.

[wbrocks67]

Abrams just needed to keep the White share below 60% to have a good chance, right? Seems pretty big that 42% of the EV electorate is non-white.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very informative thread so far I must say, I have a question, why is the "other" share of the electorate double so far what it was in 2014, 12% vs 6%, surely Hispanic population growth is not that rapid, is it just White and Black voters being identified as other.

I believe it's that voters can now decline to specify a race when registering, which wasn't always true.  So previously "others" were actually other groups, but now it includes other groups plus unspecified.  (Adam, please correct me if this is wrong.)

[Oryxslayer]

Very informative thread so far I must say, I have a question, why is the "other" share of the electorate double so far what it was in 2014, 12% vs 6%, surely Hispanic population growth is not that rapid, is it just White and Black voters being identified as other.

I believe it's that voters can now decline to specify a race when registering, which wasn't always true.  So previously "others" were actually other groups, but now it includes other groups plus unspecified.  (Adam, please correct me if this is wrong.)

This makes sense, especially considering how the other vote was mapped two pages ago. It definitely looked like a a map of 'new' voters, which is why the map correlates so well with Clinton - it's where Dems have been focused on registration.

[Hammy]

I'll ask here since I'm in Georgia, but a more general question: What effect is the weather likely to have since it looks like it'll be poor on Tuesday for most of the country?

[libertpaulian]

I'll ask here since I'm in Georgia, but a more general question: What effect is the weather likely to have since it looks like it'll be poor on Tuesday for most of the country?

I don't know.  Let's ask Governor Ed Gillespie about what raining in NOVA meant for private citizen Ralph Northam.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just voted in Forsyth County.  There were about 30 people in line ahead of me.  It took about 20 minutes, and the line was down to about 10 when I left.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp loses again in court:

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[Adam Griffin]

I'll ask here since I'm in Georgia, but a more general question: What effect is the weather likely to have since it looks like it'll be poor on Tuesday for most of the country?

The evidence for rain depressing turnout (or more specifically, depressing Democratic turnout) is antiquated and incomplete at best. Go back far enough in history, and you'll find that the belief that rain hurt Republicans to be the predominant view on the issue:

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Additionally, there is a belief that rain on Election Day has a greater effect on persuasion than turnout, despite the latter getting the lion's share of attention. While there isn't a comparable body of evidence to confirm it:

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That would suggest that leaning voters who otherwise might decide to vote Democratic suddenly decide to vote GOP in the ballot box because of rain; I actually heard a recent reference to this on the Weather Channel, where it was billed as voters looking for security and steadiness being influenced by the inconvenience of rain.


At any rate, some if not most of this evidence is likely outdated for the times, and could be completely disconnected from the reality that rain depresses turnout among voters on the side with less enthusiasm (which, in recent years, has been the Democrats more often than not). Furthermore, in this cycle specifically, if voters are suddenly looking for steadiness and security due to influence from rain on Election Day, it wouldn't be hard to argue that the Party of Trump isn't the party to give them certainty, steadiness or stability.

[junior chįmp]

Interesting

https://mobile.twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1058440751988772865

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weird:

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[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't have photos because I was driving but the early vote line in Newton County is honestly unlike anything I've ever seen. It was wrapped around the street. Full of young people and African-Americans. I hope they all stay in line.

[Storr]

Weird:

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Libertarians never fail to live up to their reputation as nuts.

[Suburbia]

I wonder if any black conservatives in Georgia will vote for Abrams or Kemp.

Also, will white suburban women disappoint Democrats again as usual in Marietta, Cobb, etc.?

[Continential]

I wonder if any black conservatives in Georgia will vote for Abrams or Kemp.

Also, will white suburban women disappoint Democrats again as usual in Marietta, Cobb, etc.?

There is a Black Conservative voting Kemp, Herman Cain

[Adam Griffin]

I wonder if any black conservatives in Georgia will vote for Abrams or Kemp.

Also, will white suburban women disappoint Democrats again as usual in Marietta, Cobb, etc.?

There is a Black Conservative voting Kemp, Herman Cain

Unfortunately for Kemp, he accidentally purged Herman Cain from the voter rolls because his race address was incorrect

[Adam Griffin]

Given the likely surge of voters today (and the fact that yesterday's absentee file didn't release until 11:24), I'm expecting it'll be after 11:30 before the file drops...which means it'll be close to or after midnight before we get today's numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

It took an extra 30 minutes just for today's file to appear compared to yesterday's. There's going to be a huge number of voters for today. Unless there was some hiccup on their end causing it, we're going to fly past 2,000,000.

For reference:

Early Vote Records in GA:
2016: 2,398,674
2008: 2,129,316
2012: 1,918,931
2018: 1,830,076 (as of 11/1)

[Gass3268]

It took an extra 30 minutes just for today's file to appear compared to yesterday's. There's going to be a huge number of voters for today. Unless there was some hiccup on their end causing it, we're going to fly past 2,000,000.

Bonkers

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058568334730510336

[Adam Griffin]

It took an extra 30 minutes just for today's file to appear compared to yesterday's. There's going to be a huge number of voters for today. Unless there was some hiccup on their end causing it, we're going to fly past 2,000,000.

Bonkers

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058568334730510336

Wow. Looks like we're going to be in the vicinity of 2,100,000 or so. Waiting on GeorgiaVotes numbers (should be available in the next 10-15 minutes).

[Adam Griffin]

Or it may be longer

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058569608440016898

[Gass3268]

Or it may be longer

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058569608440016898

Gonna stay up until this is done. Thought about it for NV, but they aren't gonna have numbers from Clark until tomorrow afternoon, lol.