Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

EPP is terribly inaccurate when an election results in late or big swings. I (Teddy Boragina) try to steer them in the right direction, but its hopeless at times.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two more Quebec riding polls... Leger again, apparently.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue: BQ 45, NDP 21, Lib 16, Con 15, Green 3
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: BQ 30, Con 24, NDP 22, Liberal 20, Green 3

Not sure why they bothered with the latter as there are obvious reasons why it might be a little tricky to poll accurately.

[MaxQue]

Two more Quebec riding polls... Leger again, apparently.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue: BQ 45, NDP 21, Lib 16, Con 15, Green 3
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: BQ 30, Con 24, NDP 22, Liberal 20, Green 3

Not sure why they bothered with the latter as there are obvious reasons why it might be a little tricky to poll accurately.

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou is one of the four NDP top targets, Al. It is also a Conservative target and a Liberal target, from what I heard.
Layton came on Monday, Harper on Tuesday, Duceppe is supposed to come this weekend, and there is persistant rumors about Ignatieff coming next week.
Sure than there is obvious reasons that makes the polling there very dubious, at best. But it back my prediction of a 4-way race.

And it is my home riding, so, I'm happy to see it in the spotlight.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes I know it's a high profile race, but I'd assumed that the obvious issues with polling such a place would prevent any attempt to do so.

[MaxQue]

Yes I know it's a high profile race, but I'd assumed that the obvious issues with polling such a place would prevent any attempt to do so.

Given the record of riding polls, that wouldn't be the first failure nor the last one.

[Verily]

Nanos today, big swing to the NDP from all others

Conservative	39.1%	-0.7
Liberal	28.4%	-1.8
NDP	19.8%	+2.5
BQ	7.7%	-0.9
Green	3.9%	+0.8

Quebec

Conservative	16.6%	+1.2
Liberal	20.9%	-0.1
NDP	25.4%	+2.4
BQ	32.5%	-3.7
Green	1.3%	+0.3

Potential for some very bizarre results if that played out in Quebec.

[MaxQue]

I believe than there will be a late swing from NDP to Bloc, because of the calls than Duceppe is doing for strategical votes.

Better than attacking NDP.

Some people I know will vote NDP (to my surprise) and other people are undecided, they are irritated by the very aggressive Bloc campaign.

There seem to be a Layton-surge in Quebec in the last month. Will that stay hold until election? That is the question which will decide some results.

[Hatman 🍁]

Natives are pretty hard to poll. I hate when we get projects to call aboriginals, as they culturally not programmed to do surveys. (I hope that didn't sound racist :S )

[Hash]

Riding polls:

[Meeker]

There's also a Sherbrooke and a Newfoundland poll out there somewhere.

[Smid]

There's also a Sherbrooke and a Newfoundland poll out there somewhere.

A friend of my wife is running in either Shefford or Sherbrooke, so if you can dig it up, I'd be interested...

[cinyc]

Nanos today, big swing to the NDP from all others

Conservative	39.1%	-0.7
Liberal	28.4%	-1.8
NDP	19.8%	+2.5
BQ	7.7%	-0.9
Green	3.9%	+0.8

Quebec

Conservative	16.6%	+1.2
Liberal	20.9%	-0.1
NDP	25.4%	+2.4
BQ	32.5%	-3.7
Green	1.3%	+0.3

Potential for some very bizarre results if that played out in Quebec.

Some of the swing is due to a good weekend polling day for the Bloc rolling off.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP gain in Quebec will give the NDP decent national numbers, but will perhaps mean a net loss in seats if it's not made up in the rest of the country. The NDP polling in the 20s in Quebec may only mean 2 or 3 seats, or maybe just one seat if this Boivin scandal I heard about affects her (which I doubt) in Gatineau.  Take a look at the numbers, most seats in Quebec had the NDP at 10-15% in 2008, so the support is pretty spread out... which sucks.

...then again if the NDP were to get around 30% of the vote in Quebec (lol), it would win a sh*t load of seats. And that's only a 5-10% swing from current polling.

[Meeker]

CROP poll of Quebec

NDP: 36%
BQ: 31%
Cons: 17%
Libs: 13%

Ermm...

[Hatman 🍁]

Beat me to it! I was just watching this: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada_Votes_2011/1857462143/ID=1891645946


I am BEAMING!!!!

[Lief 🗽]

CROP poll... or CRAP poll?

I could totally write headlines professionally. 

[Meeker]

EKOS agrees with CROP on the massive NDP gains:

NDP: 31%
BQ: 24%
Libs: 21%
Cons: 17%

[Hatman 🍁]

It is official. Hell has frozen over.

[MaxQue]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Well, with those numbers, I suppose than Mulcair is ultra-safe.

[Lief 🗽]

This could still very easily go the way of the LibDems in 2010 though.

Also Canadian polls are released at odd hours.

[Meeker]

Yeah, I'd feel a lot better about these numbers if the election was this Monday instead of the next - still lots of time for things to shift around.

Pretty cool though.

[Hatman 🍁]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Let's hope he's not the new Bob Rae. Let's say the NDP wins a majority of seats in Quebec. Most of his caucus will be very inexperienced. I suppose they wont form Government, so it's still ok. However, if everything falls in place, the NDP could become the official opposition, or very close to it, which will bode well for the future .

[MaxQue]

Also Canadian polls are released at odd hours.

They are releashed in newspapers (the sponsors) of the morning. Their internet versions are all (for most, at least) published at midnight.

When TV stations buy them, they are released during 10 PM news.

[MaxQue]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Let's hope he's not the new Bob Rae. Let's say the NDP wins a majority of seats in Quebec. Most of his caucus will be very inexperienced. I suppose they wont form Government, so it's still ok. However, if everything falls in place, the NDP could become the official opposition, or very close to it, which will bode well for the future .

A very inexperienced caucus can do a good job. See René Lévesque in 1976. He had only 6 MNAs before the election.

[MaxQue]

Well, Duceppe will need a new strategy.

Since three days, he is saying of voting for Bloc to not split the progressive vote.
Well, that argument seems against him, for now.

Yesterday, he attacked Layton's smile, too. I doubt it will convince anyone (well, it may convince people of NOT voting Bloc).