2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

How many more House retirements (or pols resigning to run for something else) can we expect before the deadlines are all up in 2018? Other than some surprise resignations from naughty Congressmen, things have slowed down a good bit, no? How many usually resign/retire the year of the election?

Traditionally, the majority of retirements are annouced soon in  January during or after the holiday recess. After finishing a year, one can properly assess the environment and decide to continue of not. Texas however comes early, and the fact 1/4th of the delegation is retiring has spiked the numbers. So expect things to pick up....

[Virginiá]

Thanks Oryxslayer!

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a nice chart highlighting the period from back in August. Note the traditional spike at the tail end of the Oct-Feb category, and at the beginning of the Feb-Apr catergory.

[Usili]

Meanwhile from my neck of the woods...

A lesson from Cincinnati: Ohio GOP Rep. Steve Chabot shows why it won't be easy for Democrats to win control of the House

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Meanwhile from my neck of the woods...

A lesson from Cincinnati: Ohio GOP Rep. Steve Chabot shows why it won't be easy for Democrats to win control of the House

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Disappointed Portune isn't ru but in this type of environment I wouldn't be surprised if Barr pulls it off

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 21-25, 1208 RV

D 46
R 31

Their previous poll was the same D+15 margin, but 47/32.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sittenfield would definitely win here if he ran as would either Driehaus.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in at the last second because all the big names passed and he's running on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

[Mike Thick]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

[Holmes]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

[Young Conservative]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

Your expectations are way too high. Also, Paul Davis hasn't raised more than the commutative fundraising of the entire GOP field in the district, which is large.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=KS02

[IceSpear]

Meanwhile from my neck of the woods...

A lesson from Cincinnati: Ohio GOP Rep. Steve Chabot shows why it won't be easy for Democrats to win control of the House

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I'm starting to think Ohio Democrats are even bigger Eeyores than Florida Democrats, lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

[IceSpear]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

Wow, the tax reform bump was a massive 1 point.

[Young Conservative]

A tax reform bump wouldn't hit until it goes into effect in 2019...just in time for 2020.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A tax reform bump wouldn't hit until it goes into effect in 2019...just in time for 2020.

But the premium increases will hit next year, just in time for the 2018 midterms.

[Bidenworth2020]

A tax reform bump wouldn't hit until it goes into effect in 2019...just in time for 2020.

kek, nothing will prevent trump from losing.

[junior chįmp]

A tax reform bump wouldn't hit until it goes into effect in 2019...just in time for 2020.

You guys are absolutely insane if you think a tax cuts will help you in any way from here on out. People seldom vote based on individual policy positions

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

Your expectations are way too high. Also, Paul Davis hasn't raised more than the commutative fundraising of the entire GOP field in the district, which is large.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=KS02

Actually, that’s pretty clearly a solidly Lean D race right now.

[publicunofficial]

I'm starting to put together my endorsements going into 2018, and I'm finding that the easiest way to find which Democrat to back in a given primary is to go to their website and find the 'Healthcare' issues tab.

Using phrases like "healthcare is a human right", "Medicare for all" = 👌👏👍👏👏👏

Using phrases like "access to affordable care", "We need to fix the ACA" = 🖕👐👎🚮

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

Beautiful Tax Reform Bump.

[Ye We Can]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+1)

You are really bad at this dude
Beautiful Tax Reform Bump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Newt Gingrich believes that the GOP is going to have a crushing victory in 2018... what a party hack.
He needs to lower his expectations by a couple hundred miles.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov poll: (December 24-26th)

GOP: 36% (+1)!!!
Dems: 44% (-)

Big. Beautiful. Tax Reform BUMP!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov poll: (December 24-26th)

GOP: 36% (+1)!!!
Dems: 44% (-)

Big. Beautiful. Tax Reform BUMP!!

Look back a few posts.