2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Usili]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

[Virginiá]

Royce retiring in CA-39 (thread)


* obviously already been discussed but just putting it here to be thorough

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

Run P.G., run!

[junior chįmp]

 🌊 🌊 🌊

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[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Just your daily reminder....demographics ARE destiny. (GOP ded.)

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I think its unfair to not count Ole Miss Lindsey Graham, the southern belle from SC as a female Republican.

[Dr. Arch]

🌊 🌊 🌊

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Oh my

[Oryxslayer]

^ some of this is admittedly simply the abnormal quantity of races - the amount of scandals on the local level last year was well... unheard of. More open seats mean more special elections, and more scandal caused resignations means more flips. Oklahoma certainly over-preformed tremendously this year in no part due to the ongoing scandals there. But this is only a small piece in the puzzle of the emerging democratic buildup for 2018.

[Usili]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

Run P.G., run!

If Sittenfeld hasn't already announced his run by now, and with little less than a month to go until the filing deadline, I don't think he's going to run.

Rooting for Barr all the way though (since Sittenfeld isn't likely to bother running), since it'd be nice to see a rabbi elected to Congress.

[Usili]

So... Arpaio's running for Arizona Senate: https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/950759425807126530

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Senator-elect Sinema

[Holmes]

Trump admin pulls out of drilling off the coast of Florida only, which is BS, but maybe means Scott is running?

[BuckeyeNut]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

I am honestly shocked.

[Mike Thick]

Senator-elect Sinema

Isn’t he just going to split the crazy person vote with Ward and let McSally sneak through?

[Cactus Jack]

Senator-elect Sinema

Isn’t he just going to split the crazy person vote with Ward and let McSally sneak through?

Oh, trust me, Nazi Joe is in it to win it. I wouldn't be surprised if McSally got third place in the primary with all the reverse triangulation she's done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)

[The Other Castro]

DCCC gives its support to 7 named recruits:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/dccc-red-to-blue-candidates

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised $502K in the 4th quarter.

NY-11: Max Rose raised $330K in the 4th quarter.

NC-13: Kathy Manning raised $530K in December.

MN-03: Dean Phillips raised $402K in the 4th quarter, none of it from PACs.

[smoltchanov]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)

Big advantage, but slightly worrying tendency for Democrats

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DCCC gives its support to 7 named recruits:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/dccc-red-to-blue-candidates

UT-04: Ben McAdams raised $502K in the 4th quarter.

NY-11: Max Rose raised $330K in the 4th quarter.

NC-13: Kathy Manning raised $530K in December.

MN-03: Dean Phillips raised $402K in the 4th quarter, none of it from PACs.

I see why Budd's campaign (NC-13) seemed to have a temporary freak out almost literally the instant Manning got in the race.  Their internal polling must have been showing a huge swing against the Republicans in NC-13 and Manning's fundraising haul confirmed my suspicion that she was a strong recruit.  I think there's a very real chance this seat flips (same with NC-2 although Holding is a stronger incumbent imo, but Pittinger is – if he gets re-nominated – in the most danger and I don't see him winning re-election tbh; he seems like exactly the kind of incredibly weak incumbent who would "unexpectedly" get swept out in a wave).

[LimoLiberal]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)

Big advantage, but slightly worrying tendency for Democrats

Morning Consult has historically been one of the most R leaning polls for the generic ballot (and Trump approval). They had R+1 in their early november poll, and D+2 a month ago.

[smoltchanov]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 14-18)

D 44 (nc)
R 36 (+2)

Big advantage, but slightly worrying tendency for Democrats

Morning Consult has historically been one of the most R leaning polls for the generic ballot (and Trump approval). They had R+1 in their early november poll, and D+2 a month ago.

Thanks!

[Usili]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

I am honestly shocked.

If you don't mind me asking, is it because of the money that he has raised and likely making this race more competitive than anyone was expected without any of the major contenders (Portune, Reece, or Sittenfeld)?

[BuckeyeNut]

OH-01: Robert Barr raised $236k in Q4, with Steve Chabot raising $125k in Q4 to add to his $1.1M in the bank.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/08/steve-chabot-challenger-robert-barr-raises-big-money-first-bid-house-race/1013983001/

I am honestly shocked.

If you don't mind me asking, is it because of the money that he has raised and likely making this race more competitive than anyone was expected without any of the major contenders (Portune, Reece, or Sittenfeld)?

Well yeah. Barr's basically an elevated SomeDude. Very impressive. Though having a congregation is like having a built-in base of political support.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ispos Jan. 4th-8th

Dem: 44% (+4)
GOP: 34% (-1)

Bye bye Tax Reform Bump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ispos Jan. 4th-8th

Dem: 44% (+4)
GOP: 34% (-1)

Bye bye Tax Reform Bump.

To be fair, the previous Ipsos survey appears to be an outlier.  The three before that also had the Democrats up by double digits.

[Pericles]