2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

By the end of this cycle I'm going to be confused as hell as to which female Democrat military veteran is running in which district.

Well, we were warned in April: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/veterans-house-democrats-recruiting-236845

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[Oryxslayer]

Anyone got LoBoindo's numbers? I have had him pegged as a potential retirement since Reichart pulled the plug.

On McSally, I have (regretfully) been expecting McCain to announce his retirement over winter break as reports keep coming out that he is operating on limited time. Finish up the year, close all the books, that sort of thing. His votes on Healthcare certainly looked like a man with little left to lose. Once he retire, McSally is the obvious heir apparent.

[Oryxslayer]

BOLD PREDICTION: Flake will be forced to retire and Mcsally will run.

Called it for Flake retiring! I suppose Mcsally will run.

McSally's waiting for McCain to retire and hand her the torch.

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats +15 in the new Fox Poll

But where's the wave?

[Oryxslayer]

NH-01: Chris Pappas (D) is in: http://www.wmur.com/article/wmur-first-democrat-pappas-announces-candidacy-for-1st-district-us-house-seat/13509553

Booo, not an angry white woman.

[Oryxslayer]

How many more House retirements (or pols resigning to run for something else) can we expect before the deadlines are all up in 2018? Other than some surprise resignations from naughty Congressmen, things have slowed down a good bit, no? How many usually resign/retire the year of the election?

Traditionally, the majority of retirements are annouced soon in  January during or after the holiday recess. After finishing a year, one can properly assess the environment and decide to continue of not. Texas however comes early, and the fact 1/4th of the delegation is retiring has spiked the numbers. So expect things to pick up....

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a nice chart highlighting the period from back in August. Note the traditional spike at the tail end of the Oct-Feb category, and at the beginning of the Feb-Apr catergory.

[Oryxslayer]

D+7 could easily be enough to take the House, don't be stupid. It's just not a guarantee like double digits would be.

Not like the poll matters anyway since Reuters is junk, there's far too many undecideds, and it's still 11 months before the election.

Kind of an indictment of the way we elect public officials when people actually worry whether D+7 is enough to claw back even a bare majority.

It's surely no secret, that Democrats are hyperconcentrated in fewer number of districts, so Republicans inherently have an advantage (even without gerrymandering). The best Republican districts in 2016 were about 81% Trump (those, like TX-13), the best Democratic - about 95% for Clinton. And this is true in non-presidential races too...

The median house district is R+3. The real spike in difficulty comes from the incumbency hump, which occurs for both parties, and varries from candidate to candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

^ some of this is admittedly simply the abnormal quantity of races - the amount of scandals on the local level last year was well... unheard of. More open seats mean more special elections, and more scandal caused resignations means more flips. Oklahoma certainly over-preformed tremendously this year in no part due to the ongoing scandals there. But this is only a small piece in the puzzle of the emerging democratic buildup for 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Calling it now. Rohrabacher will retire.

Rochrabacher has always striked me as the king of guy who is happy to go down with the ship rather then jump off honorably.

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

Most of this is catchup to cook...interesting that they have not pushed CA-39 to Lean D yeat.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know why clown Gonzales is rating NJ-2 as Leans R? Is he one of those idiotic "MUH Trump seat/state" people?

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house

Because Gonzales has a 'tilt' catergory, I find him to be the most soft-c conservative rater, taking his sweet time to move seat where they should be. At least traditionally, is goes from most soft c-conservative, to most soft-l liberal Gonzalez > Cook > Sabato.

Another thing is that that site has gone through a change of lead pundants, so it is hard to exact a bias. It was originally the Rothenberg Political Report in 2014, then the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report in 2016, and now is Inside Elections with Gonzalez.

[Oryxslayer]

Bye bye Claudia

Rep. Claudia Tenney struggles to raise money for 2018 battle with Brindisi

WASHINGTON -- U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney is struggling to raise money for her 2018 election campaign against State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi in what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the nation, new disclosure reports show.

Brindisi, D-Utica, raised about $100,000 more than Tenney, R-New Hartford, in the last quarter, and now has more campaign cash than the first-term congresswoman, according to reports filed today with the Federal Election Commission in Washington.

She was previously hyped as a rising star...though I'm not sure where she would rise to in NY.

[Oryxslayer]

Cook Political Report shifts 21 seats towards the Democrats

Some of these changes were a long time coming - NJ 02, OR 05, TX 21. Others are interesting like VA 07, IL 12, and NC 13.

Cook also incredulously still has TN-Sen as a tossup so...

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully WA-3 and WA-5 move onto the board soon

WA-05 is already rated likely R.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

The pic is only some of the list, 6ish mpre markets were cut off. NYC is getting 1.3 mil, and philly 3mil for comparison.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow Ryan Costello told Pa Reps he's unsure if he'll run this November https://mobile.twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/974062763818528770

C+8, D+2 PVI, backed dems 3 times in a row (albeit Obama won twice right of the nation), oh and he is facing one of those well funded female vets the DCCC loves this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

Filing deadlines past in California and Montana.  Full slate of Democrats in both states. In California, Republicans are running in 26 or 27 of the 39 Democratic held districts while no Republican will primary Gianforte.

Most notably though is CA-21 where dems are stuck with Joe Cox. We will see how open this region is to throwing out Valadao in June, but right now this is the first highly competitive seat where dems absolutely failed at recruitment. If blame has to go anywhere, I put it on the wishy-washy turnout among Dem Hispanics, an none of the many A tier recruits around here want to bet their carriers on midterm turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

Nah, its just a effort for Cook to change their maps after they have put them into effect. Last cycle, they used the old Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia maps all the way through November.