Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Mayors elected:

134 PS
  79 PSD
  18 CDU
  14 Indy
    6 CDS
    1 JPP
    1 NC

How can we interpret that result?

A brusing defeat for the PSD (time to go Passos); a huge victory for Costa, his first national victory as PS leader.

So how many mayors PS had before?

150. But this figures are not final. The PS, IMO, may win ariund 154; PSD around 95. They had 106.

Well, the change is not that big too be honest.

The problem is that everyone expected the PS to lose a few cities and the PSD to win a few. Well, everything happen the other way around.

[Mike88]

Current tally of elected mayors:

153 PS
  94 PSD
  23 CDU
  16 Indy
    6 CDS
    1 JPP
    1 NC

There are two losers and a big winner. First, the PS, the huge winner of the night. Costa finally got the legitimacy he wanted as PM, and he got it in a big way. The PS won some cities from the PSD and, especially, from CDU. The losers are PSD and CDU. For the PSD, it's the end of the line for Passos Coelho and he already said he may not run again for the leadership and then we have the CDU. CDU lost more than 10 cities to the PS and the party may plunge also into a crisis. The support of the PS government seems to have weakend the party and now pundits are suggesting that CDU may want to pull out of the government in 2018. Early general elections in sight? And will Jerónimo de Sousa continue as PCP leader? Many things will change in Portuguese politics in the next few months.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from September (Parliament)

43.7% PS (+0.7)
25.8% PSD (+2.9)
  7.8% BE (-1.3)
  7.8% CDU (n.c.)
  4.1% CDS (-1.1)
  8.6% Others/Invalid
  2.2% Undecided

Pol conducted between 26 and 28 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Final tally of elected mayors by party:

160 PS (+10)
  98 PSD (-8)
  24 CDU (-10)
  17 Indy (+5)
    6 CDS (+1)
    1 JPP (n.c)
    1 NC (+1)
    1 Livre (+1)

Share of the vote (with coalitions): 99.9% counted

38.7% PS (+2.0)
30.4% PSD (-1.0)
  9.5% CDU (-1.6)
  6.8% Indy (-0.1)
  4.1% CDS (+0.7)
  3.3% BE (+0.9)
  1.0% PAN (+0.7)
  0.3% Livre (+0.3)
  0.3% JPP (+0.3)
  0.2% NC (+0.2)
  0.7% Others (-0.3)
  4.6% Invalid (-2.2)

55.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

Final results for the 2017 local elections:

[Mike88]

Forgot to point this: The PS lost it's majority in Lisbon city.

It was a bittersweet victory for the PS in Lisbon. After the first projections showed Fernando Medina with a majority, the ballot counting took a long time and only at 3 in the morning of Monday was announced that Medina lost his majority in Lisbon. Now, he may try to struck a deal with CDU or BE or even, who knows, the PSD to have a majority.

Also, today, the PSD will meet in a meeting to analyse the election results. Passos Coelho's "tabu" of whether he run or not for another term could culminate in this meeting. Rui Rio is already preparing his troops and has already meet with very high profile PSD members, but he is waiting to see Passos Coelho's moves before he announces his candidacy.

[Mike88]

BREAKING NEWS: Passos Coelho is out!


Exit time for Passos Coelho.

Expresso newspaper is reporting that Passos Coelho has just annouced he will not stand for another term for president of the PSD.

[Mike88]

As the news that Passos Coelho is bowing out, Rui Rio is expected to announce his candidacy. RTP says Rio will announce next week that he's in the race.

Also, more maps from the Local election results: (From Marktest)

Mayors elected by party: (2013 vs 2017)


Party % by municipality:
PS


PSD


CDU


Independent candidates


CDS


BE

[Mike88]

Passos Coelho gave a speech tonight officially announcing his withdrawing from the PSD leadership race.


Passos Coelho leaving the platform.

In his speech, Passos Coelho acknowledges the "heavy" defeat the PSD got in the local elections and assumes his responsibilities. At the same time he assumes that, during the current political mood, he is more a problem than a solution for the PSD and that it's time to exit. He also pointed that the leadership elections may be in December rather than in January.

The PSD will meet again next week to schedule the leadership elections and the next party congress. Everything points that the leadership election will in fact happen in December.

So, with Rui Rio already, not officially, in the race, who will be his challenger? Luís Montenegro? He is being pressured to run. Santana Lopes? He is thinking about, but he doesn't have a chance. Paulo Rangel? Maybe, who knows. Or will this be a coronation for Rui Rio? We will know in the next few days. 

[Mike88]

PSD personalities that will run or are considering a run for the December leadership elections:

Will definitely run:
Rui Rio

60 years old; Former mayor of Porto (2002-2013); Won 3 consecutive elections in Porto.

Considering a run:
Luís Montenegro

44 years old; Former leader of the PSD parliamentary caucus (2011-2017).

Pedro Santana Lopes

61 years old; Former mayor of Figueira da Foz (1997-2001); Former mayor of Lisbon (2002-2004, 2005); Former PM (2004-2005); Candidate for the PSD 2008 leadership, placed third with 29.6%.

André Ventura

PSD candidate for Loures, polled third with 22%; Labelled as the "Portuguese Donald Trump", is considering a run if no one runs against Rui Rio.

Paulo Rangel

49 years old; MEP since 2009; Won the 2009 European elections with 31.7%; Candidate for the PSD 2010 leadership, placed second with 34%; Lost the 2014 European elections with 27.7%.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Oh, I was wondering when it will happen. And which one of them is the most possible choice for the party now?

[Mike88]

Oh, I was wondering when it will happen. And which one of them is the most possible choice for the party now?

This leadership election is Rui Rio's to lose. He's the clear frontrunner but there's, like i said above, the doubt of who will he face in the election. My guess is that it will be either Rio vs Montenegro or Rio vs Montenegro vs Santana Lopes.

Against Costa, Rui Rio seems to be the strongest candidate and both have some similarities. Both were mayors of the 2 largest cities in Portugal, and both have a very good relationship between them. In terms of style, they are completely different: if Costa wants to be loved and adored by the press or the electorate, Rio doesn't mind to enter in confrontations with the press or other people.

[Mike88]

Newspapers are reporting that the leadership election will be held on Saturday, December 2 and that the next party congress will be held on 5, 6 and 7 January.

The PSD has around 120,000 members and those who have paid their quotas, or will pay until a date to be determined, will be registered to vote on December 2.

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro will not be a candidate for the leadership.



Luís Montenegro, former caucus leader of the PSD, will not be a candidate for the PSD leadership election to be held on December 2. In a statement sent to newspapers, Montenegro says that "personal and political reasons prevent him to run for the leadership". This means that Paulo Rangel will most likely be the candidate against Rui Rio, although Montenegro didn't said if he will support either Rio or Rangel.

[Mike88]

Paulo Rangel is also out of the race.



Paulo Rangel, PSD MEP, will not be a candidate for the leadership. In a statement sent to the press, Rangel says "family reasons" force him to not contest the PSD leadership. This means that Rui Rio has basically been elected leader of the PSD. Santana Lopes is apparently going to run but he doesn't have a chance and then there's André Ventura, who also has 0 chances.

The PSD leadership election is shaping up to be a Rio landslide.

[Mike88]

More maps for the 2017 local elections:

Map of the most voted party in the Parish Assembly elections:

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election schedule to 13 January 2018. Party Congress to be held between 16 and 18 February.

Although the media was saying the PSD elections would be in December, the party decided, today, to schedule the election to Saturday January 13, and that the party will convene in a congress in the weekend of 16, 17 and 18 February.

[Mike88]

Santana Lopes will run for the PSD leadership, according to Expresso.



Pedro Santana Lopes, former PM and mayor of Lisbon, will be a candidate for the PSD leadership elections to be held on January 13. According to Expresso newspaper, Santana Lopes has decided to run and will probably resign from his post as head of the Santa Casa da Misericordia (institution that helps elderly or disadvantaged people and that also controls the lottery business). However, the official announcement of his candidacy has yet to be announce. Rui Rio will officially announce his candidacy tomorrow in Aveiro.

Also, Expresso's take on the PSD leadership elections in one image:

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[Mike88]

Former PM José Sócrates is officially accused of 31 crimes and of gaining 24 million euros illegally.



The DA office has finally finished the accusation against the former PS Prime Minister, José Sócrates. In the accusation, which has almost 4,000 pages, Sócrates is accused of 31 crimes: 3 crimes of passive corruption from a political office holder; 16 crimes of money laundering; 9 crimes of forgery of documents and 3 crimes of tax fraud. The facts in the investigation happened between 2006 and 2015, meaning during his tenure as PM (2005-2011) and as a former PM (2011-2015).

The accusation also proves the connection between Sócrates, his best friend, Carlos Santos Silva, Lena Group and Espirito Santo Group in a series of financial schemes where the former PM gained, illegally, 24 million euros.

The accusation doesn't only accuse Sócrates, Carlos Santos Silva, Sócrates best friend, is accused of 33 crimes; Ricardo Salgado, former BES chairman, is accused of 21 economic and financial crimes; Zeinal Bava, former Portugal Telecom chairman, is accused of many crimes from corruption to forgery of documents; Henrique Granadeiro, former manager of Portugal Telecom, is also accused of a series of corruption crimes; Armando Vara, former minister and manager of Caixa Geral de depositos, is also accused of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud; Sofia Fava, Sócrates ex-wife, is accused of 2 corruption crimes.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio officially announces his candidacy for the PSD leadership.



Rui Rio is officially the 1st candidate to announce his candidacy for the PSD leadership, Santana Lopes will make his official announcement in the next few weeks. In his speech, Rio said he didn't ran for the leadership in 2008 or 2010 because he had a commitment with the voters of Porto city and he wasn't going to broke it (a direct hit to Costa and Santana Lopes as they left the office of Lisbon mayor to be PM). He also added that the Portuguese political class needs a bath of "ethics and integrity", at the same time he labeled the PSD as party of the "center" and not the "right". He says the PSD is party which advocates "same opportunities for all, tolerance and freedom" and that puts the party between the center-left and the center-right.

He finished his speech saying the PSD is a party of power and will never be a "crutch party" and that today is the beginning of the end of the "geringonça" (contraption) or, to be more specific, the PS/BE/CDU coalition.

[Mike88]

The Pedrógão Grande wildfire disaster report came out today and it's bad for everyone:

The special committee created to analyse what went went wrong in the Pedrógão Grande wildfire disaster, that killed 64 people, concluded that... well, everything failed, everything. The report blames the lack of strategy as the main culprit as firefighters didn't know where to go or where the fire really was. They also blame authorities for not realising how extreme the weather conditions were and for downplaying it, at the same time they also blame authorities for not responding quickly to the fire as, they say, could have been prevented.


Burned traffic signals in Pedrógão Grande.

The report also specifies that communications between security forces and firefighters failed constantly, making the fire combat impossible. They blame the high commands of the Civil Protection of lack of organization and for not following procedures. The report also says that the the political intervention of the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, and of her secretary did more harm than good, as the report says that they were "disorganized, disoriented, and uncoordinated". The report also questions the role of the media in the tragedy, saying that the constant demand for briefings harmed the fire combat.

The PSD/CDS opposition is having a field day with this report. CDS directly blames the Interior minister, adding the she is already fired but doesn't know it yet. The PSD doesn't ask for the removal of the minister, but says there was a "massive dose of incompetence" in the Pedrógão disaster. The Prime Minister, António Costa, has also talked about the report and said that he admits that any responsibilities he or his government had will have political consequences.

[Mike88]

October poll from Eurosondagem:

1st poll after the local elections.



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 4 and 11 October. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.09%

[Mike88]

The 2018 budget was delivered yesterday, almost at midnight, to Parliament and then presented to the press and the country. The government predicts the economy to grow 2.2% in 2018, lower than the 2.6% projected for 2017; the deficit will stood at 1% of GDP and the debt racio will drop to 123.5% of GDP. Adding to this, the government commits itself to cut 770 million euros in government spending.


Mário Centeno (left) delivering the 2018 budget to the Speaker of Parliament Ferro Rodrigues (right).

Many areas will see an increase on spending like Defense (a 7.5% increase), Justice (7.7% increase), Internal affairs, Environment (a whopping 70% increase to pay debts) and Science and Research (10% increase). Public investment will grow 800 million euros to a total of 4.5 billion euros in 2018 (2.3% of GDP).

Taxes for families will be lowered as the government created two more stages on the IRS to compensate lower earning families. An estimate 1.6 million families will benefit from it. Many of these tax policies will have a negative impact on the deficits of 2019 and 2020.

Corporate taxes are expected to maintain steady and the budget announces fiscal benefits for companies who want to invest. At the same time, and although it's not written in the budget, the government wants to introduce a surcharge to companies than profit more than 35 million euros to finance Social Security. This is a demand from PCP and BE. Pensioners will also see an increase in pensions during 2018, as pensions below 643 euros will see an increase between 6 and 10 euros.

The budget also increases or creates more indirect taxes. Taxes on alcohol and sugar drinks or snacks will be increased and a new tax called "the french fries tax" will be created, and it will tax salt on food or snacks.

[Mike88]

The 2018 budget was delivered last night but the media attention wasn't focus on the budget but on the stormy interview José Socrates gave on RTP1. The interview was very tense between him and the journalist interviewing him, but the climax of the interview happened at the very end when the journalist asked what was Socrátes income right now. The former PM didn't liked the question and reacted very badly.


Sócrates before the start of the interview with the 4,000 page accusation next to him.

That moment of the interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQkNklomRmg

(It can be translate to English: Português to Inglês)

[Mike88]

Portugal's mainland politics may be hot right now, but in Madeira it's even hotter:

The PSD achieved a very bad result in Madeira, so Miguel Albuquerque, President of the Government, made a huge reshuffle of his government changing many secretaries and creating the post of vice president. At the same time, a historic deal between PSD and CDS may be on the making. Both parties are negotiating a deal to steal the leadership of the board of elected mayors from the PS, and some want this partnership to be extended to the 2019 elections in a way to block any attempt from the Socialist to win the elections.

But, in the PS, things aren't good either. The party will have a leadership election soon and the current leader, Carlos Pereira, will run for another term. He will face a challenge from the mayor of Porto Moniz, Emanuel Câmara, but Mr. Câmara doesn't want to contest the presidency and insted he wants to nominate the mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo, as the candidate for the presidency. The party is freaking out because voters may not like this quick change from mayors to regional leaders and could punish them, and, not to mention, the huge hate there is between Cafôfo and Carlos Pereira.

The 2019 regional elections in Madeira has everything to be historic.