Kasich was polling +8 against Hillary, idk what garbage you guys are smoking when you say Trumps base would have stayed home. The republican base is far more reliable at voting. Turnout wouldn't even break 53% in Kasich vs Hillary (and low turnout benefits old white Republicans who always vote). Barely anyone would care about the election and Kasich wins plenty of moderates.
Obvious Reminder: Trump underperformed Generic Republicans in basically every state (Even in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). I guess Minnesota was one of the few exceptions, but the DFL party is really good at getting elected.
Most people wanted Obamacare repealed, most people wanted a more conservative president after Obama, etc. -- It's clear if you look at the exit poll results that people wanted a more conservative president, and obviously Hillary was not that.
Trump-skeptical Republican voters tend to be a high turnout group as a whole and thus showed up to vote for Clinton/Johnson/McMullin/whatever and whatever downballot Republican (since Clinton was considered the favorite). Trump-enthusiastic swing voters tend to be lower turnout (i.e. may not have shown up without Trump) and voted a straight ticket. The electorate may not have shown the same demographics without Trump driving up turnout.
