MO-Smart/Transpontation Issues/Statewide races: Clinton leads Trump by 2

[Wells]

Here's a post I made on AAD. This shows what the election would be like it this poll is accurate.

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[Wells]

It's very unlikely Missouri would go for Clinton. In my map above, which is a scenario in which Clinton wins MO by 2%, Mississippi goes for Clinton due to an increase in turnout among African-Americans, who also happen to vote for her by a larger margin than they voted for Obama. This is the difference between a 1% victory in Missouri and a 2% victory in Missouri.

As for the white vote, I have it less favorable to Trump in this scenario due to #NeverTrump Republicans staying home or voting for Clinton, and the "Silent Majority" staying silent and not being a majority.