NJ-02: (Update) NRCC unendorses Grossman

[Bidenworth2020]

what will be interesting is to see whether van drew cracks 60

[136or142]

I suspect Grossman will run against the 'elitist NRCC.'

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Safe D, at least the NRCC did the right thing, can't say I was confident they would.

[HAnnA MArin County]

The NRCC has now become the National RINO Cuck Circus. Grossman was just expressing the same Economic Anxiety that put Chairman Don into office! 

[Badger]

Safe D, at least the NRCC did the right thing, can't say I was confident they would.

He's been posting similarly racist s*** 4 months. He finally just crossed the line that the nrcc just couldn't handle the bad publicity, and realize they weren't going to win this race anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Second-safest pickup of the cycle and Democrats nominated a useless Blue Dog. No, I'm not over this.

[ON Progressive]

Second-safest pickup of the cycle and Democrats nominated a useless Blue Dog. No, I'm not over this.

That "useless Blue Dog" is half the reason this race is Safe D lmao

[Antonio the Sixth]

Second-safest pickup of the cycle and Democrats nominated a useless Blue Dog. No, I'm not over this.

That "useless Blue Dog" is half the reason this race is Safe D lmao

It's really not.

[ON Progressive]

Second-safest pickup of the cycle and Democrats nominated a useless Blue Dog. No, I'm not over this.

That "useless Blue Dog" is half the reason this race is Safe D lmao

It's really not.

Yes it is. Jeff Van Drew is extremely popular in his quite conservative State Senate seat (he won it by 31 points in 2017 despite it swinging hard to the GOP between 2012-2016 at the Presidential level), and scared off any top tier Republican challengers.

[Brittain33]

Second-safest pickup of the cycle and Democrats nominated a useless Blue Dog. No, I'm not over this.

That "useless Blue Dog" is half the reason this race is Safe D lmao

It's really not.

Yes it is. Jeff Van Drew is extremely popular in his quite conservative State Senate seat (he won it by 31 points in 2017 despite it swinging hard to the GOP between 2012-2016 at the Presidential level), and scared off any top tier Republican challengers.

This. Not only is it Safe D now because of Van Drew, but Van Drew is also better positioned to hold the seat when the tide turns against Dems in the future.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This. Not only is it Safe D now because of Van Drew, but Van Drew is also better positioned to hold the seat when the tide turns against Dems in the future.

The idea that he will make the seat safe when there is eventually another Democratic president and Republican midterm wave year is overstated.

There were lots and lots of Democratic incumbents who previously did very well and were very popular in their R+ PVI seats in 2010 and 2014.

Jim Obserstar, Jim Marshall, Bob Etheridge, Allen Boyd, John Salazar, John Spratt, Stephanie Herseth, Chet Edwards, Rick Boucher, Nick Rahall, Tim Bishop, etc.

All were basically washed away, simply because they had a D next to their name.

Winning by a large margin in 2017 (hardly a GOP wave year) is all well and good for Van Drew's chances in a Dem year or in a neutral year, but means almost nothing as soon as a good GOP year comes up.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Either way, Van Drew will be a tough nut to crack, even in an R-leaning year. I could even see him tacking to the left left a bit as he seems to be doing and still holding a strong personal brand. I just wish he was younger though, so he could hold that seat for longer.

[Brittain33]

This. Not only is it Safe D now because of Van Drew, but Van Drew is also better positioned to hold the seat when the tide turns against Dems in the future.

The idea that he will make the seat safe when there is eventually another Democratic president and Republican midterm wave year is overstated.

I don't think he's safe, but he'd be safer than a Some Guy or a generic progressive. At a minimum, he'd scare off Republicans from running.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The NRCC has now become the National RINO Cuck Circus. Grossman was just expressing the same Economic Anxiety that put Chairman Don into office! 

It's all about the money.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is ridiculous. A Generic D would be perfectly fine in this district. It voted to the left of the country in 2012, ffs.

[wesmoorenerd]

This is ridiculous. A Generic D would be perfectly fine in this district. It voted to the left of the country in 2012, ffs.

True. I think the benefits of Van Drew outweigh the costs, since he could easily become entrenched like LoBiondo was and he probably scared off any strong Republicans, but if it was a Generic D against Grossman, the D would still be favored.

[Oryxslayer]

This is ridiculous. A Generic D would be perfectly fine in this district. It voted to the left of the country in 2012, ffs.

Yes, if we assume LoBiondo is always going to retire in a 2018 environment, then I suspect any D would be picking this seat up. However, only van Drew could make this seat the second (third?) seat triaged this cycle by the GOP. (after PA-06, PA-05?)

If you want to see a Progressive upside, picture it like this. If it wasn't van drew then more dem money would be wasted in the expensive Philly market picking up a seat. With van Drew though, dem money can be dispersed to other competitive seats who have a whole host of people with varying ideologies running.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

This is ridiculous. A Generic D would be perfectly fine in this district. It voted to the left of the country in 2012, ffs.

True. I think the benefits of Van Drew outweigh the costs, since he could easily become entrenched like LoBiondo was and he probably scared off any strong Republicans, but if it was a Generic D against Grossman, the D would still be favored.

Would R candidate recruitment be as awful if he wasn't running, though?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The point is that Van Drew will probably be voting like a Republican more than half the time (and probably more on critical votes). So when he'll win, we won't actually be picking up one seat, we'll be picking up maybe 0.3 or 0.4 seats. Which means we basically conceded half a seat in a prime pickup opportunity before the election even happened.

[Gass3268]

The point is that Van Drew will probably be voting like a Republican more than half the time (and probably more on critical votes). So when he'll win, we won't actually be picking up one seat, we'll be picking up maybe 0.3 or 0.4 seats. Which means we basically conceded half a seat in a prime pickup opportunity before the election even happened.

There aren't any Democrats that vote with Republicans more than 50% of the time. The worst you get now is 30-35%.

[Oryxslayer]

The point is that Van Drew will probably be voting like a Republican more than half the time (and probably more on critical votes). So when he'll win, we won't actually be picking up one seat, we'll be picking up maybe 0.3 or 0.4 seats. Which means we basically conceded half a seat in a prime pickup opportunity before the election even happened.

There aren't any Democrats that vote with Republicans more than 50% of the time. The worst you get now is 30-35%.

And how many times did LoBoindo vote with the Dems? I suspect that how frequently van Drew will vote with the Reps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There aren't any Democrats that vote with Republicans more than 50% of the time.

There are 3 in the Senate and 6 in the House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There aren't any Democrats that vote with Republicans more than 50% of the time.

There are 3 in the Senate and 6 in the House.

Is this for all votes or only for "meaningful" ones?  There are some votes that are noncontroversial, and in these it would be expected for most members of both parties to vote the same way.