Monmouth National Poll: Clinton +12/+13

[dspNY]

The scarier part for the GOP is that Monmouth was the best pollster in the primaries so they have keyed onto something in the electorate

[dspNY]

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

26% Republican
39% Independent
35% Democrat

47% Male
53% Female

25% 18-34
25% 35-49
28% 50-64
21% 65+

71% White
13% Black
11% Hispanic
 5% Asian/Other

Electorate a little on the young side so that gives a couple of extra points to Clinton but the other demographics are spot on

[dspNY]

Trump only leads by 5 in the reddest states (those that voted GOP by more than 12% in 2012). Interestingly, most of Johnson's support comes from those red states, where he gets 12%. This finding indicates a potential #NeverTrump rebellion in Texas and/or a situation where Montana and the Dakotas are seeing a sizable Johnson vote, making them competitive and winnable with a 45-46% plurality.

It could also be an outsized Johnson vote in Utah as well but we have evidence now that Johnson is polling in the high teens there, not 25% or above

[dspNY]

Beautiful poll! I'll really start getting excited if we're still seeing polls like this in a few weeks though.

I'm excited because it means that even if we're in a high period for Clinton, her "natural average" can't be too much lower. Which means it would take a lot to bring her any lower than, say, +5. And if that's the case, it means Trump will be forced to debate, which I image will only lead to a bigger bump for Clinton.

Just imagine if she goes into the first debate at +12 nationally and creams Trump. Places like Missouri, South Carolina, and maybe even Indiana or Texas could seriously be up for grabs if she manages to get to something like +15 or +16.

This 12-13 point margin is about as large a lead as any candidate can get in an environment this polarized IMO. The only possible exception I could see (5% chance at best) is if Trump supporters start to think he is an embarrassment and then the floodgates really open

[dspNY]

I actually played with some of the demographic sliders on 538's swingometer and if Monmouth's subsamples are correct, Clinton would win 423 EVs, largely on the strength of college-educated Republican and right-leaning women defecting en masse from Trump. She would flip NC, GA, AZ, IN and TX

My settings were white college educated, 54% Dem at 75% turnout
White non-college, 63% GOP at 65% turnout
African American, 95% Dem at 60% turnout
Hispanic, 80% Dem at 55% turnout
Asian, 71% Dem at 55% turnout

[dspNY]

How can any "Trump reset" possibly recover all this ground??   Have we ever had a candidate recover from such a huge slump???

Truman in 1948 but that's it in the modern political era