Is there a state that’s going to swing to Biden this year?

[iceman]

If so, which ones are the most likely?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Outside of any swing states/battlegrounds here are some possibilities from west to east:

Alaska-Biden did decent in 2020, and Obama made gains there in 2012.
Hawaii-Incumbents tend to do better than expected.
Utah-State is trending blue, and Trump is a really bad fit there. Biden could possibly crack 40% there.
Colorado-Trending blue as well, and even Bennet did better than Biden 2020. This might be the most likely state on the list for Biden to improve in.
Kansas-Also trending blue, and Biden will probably improve there a little from 2020 due to the trend in Johnson county.
Arkansas-Has been getting redder every election for decades now, but it looks like Rs are close to their ceiling here. It's possible Trump stalls out and Biden manages to get a really small swing here towards him.
Kentucky/West Virginia-Its unclear whether or not Trump is maxed out in Appalachia or not. Even if he isn't the shifts in some of the suburban Kentucky counties might swing the state towards Biden again. In WV he's at risk of losing Monongalia county.
Virginia-It's unclear how much Biden is maxed out in NoVA suburbs and the cities. If he can get another few points from them its possible he improves in the Old Dominion.
Delaware-It's his home state, and its very possible he improves there.

[TheTide]

Almost certainly. The last time all states swung in the same direction is 1976.

[mjba257]

Outside of any swing states/battlegrounds here are some possibilities from west to east:

Alaska-Biden did decent in 2020, and Obama made gains there in 2012.
Hawaii-Incumbents tend to do better than expected.
Utah-State is trending blue, and Trump is a really bad fit there. Biden could possibly crack 40% there.
Colorado-Trending blue as well, and even Bennet did better than Biden 2020. This might be the most likely state on the list for Biden to improve in.
Kansas-Also trending blue, and Biden will probably improve there a little from 2020 due to the trend in Johnson county.
Arkansas-Has been getting redder every election for decades now, but it looks like Rs are close to their ceiling here. It's possible Trump stalls out and Biden manages to get a really small swing here towards him.
Kentucky/West Virginia-Its unclear whether or not Trump is maxed out in Appalachia or not. Even if he isn't the shifts in some of the suburban Kentucky counties might swing the state towards Biden again. In WV he's at risk of losing Monongalia county.
Virginia-It's unclear how much Biden is maxed out in NoVA suburbs and the cities. If he can get another few points from them its possible he improves in the Old Dominion.
Delaware-It's his home state, and its very possible he improves there.

Agree with AR, KY, & WV due to Rs possibly being maxed out.

States like AK, CO, HI, & UT are interesting because those are places where I think RFK could be a major factor. It's still not entirely clear who RFK hurts more, I'm more inclined to think it varies based on state. CO is a place a think RFK will hurt Biden more because you have a lot of young white lefties in Denver, Boulder, & the ski towns who are prone to cast protest votes and who RFK appeals to. I could see RFK cutting into Biden's margin and putting the state in the single digits even if Trump's share of the vote doesn't change.

AK, OTOH, is a state I think RFK can outright win, due to RCV. Of all the states, that is one I'm most interested in. I don't think, however, Biden will improve in HI. Quite the contrary, I think we may see a dramatic rightward shift here. Biden got less votes in the primary than Trump and this was after Haley was out of the race. And it was his second worst state in terms of % after NH, where he was only a write-in. I truly believe his botched response to the Maui wildfires last year has severely tarnished his standing with many Hawaiians. As for Utah, I agree and I also believe that will be one of RFK's stronger states.

Don't know what to make of DE & VA. As for KS, I think it will remain mostly stagnant from 2020. Also a state RFK could do well in.

[SnowLabrador]

Massachusetts might. MIGHT.

[Obama24]

I think Biden has a fair to decent chance of taking Arkansas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Outside of any swing states/battlegrounds here are some possibilities from west to east:

Alaska-Biden did decent in 2020, and Obama made gains there in 2012.
Hawaii-Incumbents tend to do better than expected.
Utah-State is trending blue, and Trump is a really bad fit there. Biden could possibly crack 40% there.
Colorado-Trending blue as well, and even Bennet did better than Biden 2020. This might be the most likely state on the list for Biden to improve in.
Kansas-Also trending blue, and Biden will probably improve there a little from 2020 due to the trend in Johnson county.
Arkansas-Has been getting redder every election for decades now, but it looks like Rs are close to their ceiling here. It's possible Trump stalls out and Biden manages to get a really small swing here towards him.
Kentucky/West Virginia-Its unclear whether or not Trump is maxed out in Appalachia or not. Even if he isn't the shifts in some of the suburban Kentucky counties might swing the state towards Biden again. In WV he's at risk of losing Monongalia county.
Virginia-It's unclear how much Biden is maxed out in NoVA suburbs and the cities. If he can get another few points from them its possible he improves in the Old Dominion.
Delaware-It's his home state, and its very possible he improves there.

Largely agree with this list but disagree with AR; Dems  have not bottomed out in AR yet, especially if you look at how many rural white northern AR rurals actually vote to the *left* of Missouri rurals to the north even once you account for any scattered black population.

The reason it swung right in 2020 wasn't really because Biden did particularly bad in the state but moreso because Clinton did well; in hindsight it's clear in 2016 Clinton got a modest boost in much of rural AR.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Certainly a few: Alaska, maybe Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, New Hampshire, Texas, Utah, and even most of the major swing states (if Biden wins them) might be contenders.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yes, and third parties will probably play a role in ensuring there is no uniform shift.

Good candidates for a shift towards Biden are Alaska and states where RFK jr. might tap into the Trump vote a lot, like West Virginia, Kentucky, etc. . Maybe Kansas, Texas but the issue with trends that these are long term trends and if the electorate swings right wing it doesn't necessarily mean they'll continue that trend, but that there might be a larger trend to the left in 2028.

Also Utah and Hawaii are good candidates for reasons stated above.

I also see PA as a possibility given Biden didn't do well in 2020 Philly, and given RFK jr. might tap into rural appalachian Trump vote and that the demographics might favour Biden a bit more, however i have a feeling his urban vote will really crash. And that low returns from Philly basically could still mean Trump takes it.

But PA and AZ are a possibility for a swing left even if Trump is elected.

Missouri and Arkansas i also see a possibility due to ancestral Democrats favouring Trump perhaps going RFK jr. , closing the gap. And likewise Ohio again due to RFK jr. appalachian/ancestral D strength (and the competitive senate race).

Montana & Idaho also a possibility

[wnwnwn]

AK: Northwest trends.
KY: Less coal dependent than WV, Beshear and northern trends.
MT: MT-01 being competitive will increase dem turnout.
NH/ME: Obama-Trump-RFK voters?
UT: Alineated mormons and maybe demo trends

[MillennialModerate]

Certainly a few: Alaska, maybe Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, New Hampshire, Texas, Utah, and even most of the major swing states (if Biden wins them) might be contenders.

I could see Arizona or Pennsylvania (not saying it will but I could see it)

But Texas? … with the border, Trumps inroads with Latinos and Texas voting restrictions…. I’d be shocked.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

No.

Biden is playing 100% defense in 2024… the man is in trouble.

[GAinDC]

It wouldn't take much for Biden to swing GA since he won it so narrowly in 2020

[seskoog]

Obviously at least one will. 1976 was the last time every state swung in the same direction.

[Mr. Smith]

Utah.

I could see Minnesota or NH pull some sort of Florida 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

Colorado probably will too, honestly.