Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Mr. Reactionary]

It certainly won't help Cooch, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it a game change. McDonnell had (has, still not sure about the fallout yet) cross-over support, but little of that cross-over support would have trickled to Cuccinelli. At this stage it's still a turnout election; Conservatives want Cooch, liberals want anyone but Cooch. It's unlikely that the conservative true-believers will stay home because of McDonnell (they actually campaigned against him at the convention.) The real question is will this turnout more Democrats. At this stage I don't think so, given McAuliffe's lackluster personality. If the McDonnell scandal gets really bad and can be substantively tied to Cuccinelli, then it's a whole new ballgame. But at this stage, I haven't actually seen much coverage of McDonnell in Virginia. The report on his business getting a loan from the Star Scientific guy was on page 6 in my paper today. I think everyone is waiting to see what comes of the investigation first. If McDonnell only comes off partially slimy and Cooch stays on topic, I imagine tossup status will remain.

[Mr. Reactionary]

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But remember, Virginia matches the federal government, by doing the opposite. We elected a Republican in '77 as a rejection of Carter, Democrats in '81, '85, and '89 to counter Reagan and Bush 1. In '93 Republican George Allen was seen as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton backlash. In '97 another Republican was elected coinciding with Clinton's 2nd term. In '01 and '05, Democrats countered Bush 2. And then in '09 we had McDonnell pull an Allen and portend the anti-Obama wave in 2010. If McAuliffe wins, it'll be the first time Virginia elected a governor in agreement with the new President since the 1970s.

[Mr. Reactionary]

I can't help but think our state's reputation is taking a hit since we have a crook for a governor and our 2 candidates to replace him are a kook and a crook. At LG we have a moron running against an opportunist who was willing to sell his party label, and at AG we have a pro-life statist vs. a mean-spirited, loud-mouthed jerk. Pity us.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Does anyone think the Bradley effect may come in to play here? I'm not sure if its a "real" thing or not. I do know that as a student, I (and several of my friends) are publicly claiming not to be voting for Cuccinelli, but we will. This is purely anecdotal of course, but I wasn't sure if this could be a factor.