UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Is that totally true ?  If confronted with a no deal Brexit on 3/29 would not some pro-Remain MPs might fold and vote for May's deal? 

She'd need 30-40 at least, very probably more, and to split the ERG also. Theoretically possible, but we're talking about the least tactically adroit PM in history.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

She can still revoke Article 50 entirely without the rest of the EU consenting.

And reinvoke it to get a 2 year extension. But she probably wants an extension of less than 2 years.

If she does this she probably wouldn't be PM much longer. Either that or the Tories wouldn't exist as a single, unified party much longer.

[Silent Hunter]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

Nobody can't know for sure what someone votes for or not with the back against a wall.

The EU effectively says that they must either accept the Brexit deal or face a no-deal Brexit. The Speaker of the House of Commons says that this deal was already rejected and that you can't vote on the same deal twice. So, the fate of the United Kingdom depends entirely on Bercow's whims. Question is what happens if he continues to block another vote on the deal? Does May offer the EU a second referendum and will the EU accept such a proposal?

Didn't they already vote 2 times on the same deal, or was it "changed" in between votes?

It was changed with the additional documents related to the backstop.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EU has rejected May's request for an Article 50 extension until June 30, saying May 22 (immediately before the beginning of the European Parliament elections) is the latest date für a withdrawal from the Europan Union. They're really playing hardball now:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control


Meanwhile, the UK government’s petitions website crashed after a petition asking for a revocation of Article 50 had received 1,500 signatures per minute:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50

[Lechasseur]

The EU has rejected May's request for an Article 50 extension until June 30, saying May 22 (immediately before the beginning of the European Parliament elections) is the latest date für a withdrawal from the Europan Union. They're really playing hardball now:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/brexit-eu-rejects-theresa-may-request-delay-control


Meanwhile, the UK government’s petitions website crashed after a petition asking for a revocation of Article 50 had received 1,500 signatures per minute:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50

Yeah, tbh I think a new election has to be called. From what I was reading, the only way the EU was going to consider giving a serious extension to the Article 50 period was if a new election or a second referendum were held. At anyrate May's in the final weeks of her Premiership imo.

[Silent Hunter]

And they're making that conditional on the WA passing. It's not going to pass, certainly not in that form.

[Lechasseur]

And they're making that conditional on the WA passing. It's not going to pass, certainly not in that form.

The WA?

[Silent Hunter]

Withdrawal Agreement. Including the backstop a lot of people have been complaining about.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems like the EU leaders discussing many different options right now.


https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1108809044356145152


The latest report is about an possible Article 50 extension until May 7, with the option to prolong it until the end of the year provided that the United Kingdom invokes this option until April 11 and agrees to participate in the EP elections.

[Silent Hunter]

That sound you hear is a collective sigh of relief from many Brits.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Passing the Brexit deal next week as a pre-condition for granting any extension also seems to be off the table now. This option was initially preferred by Macron, who apparently was talked out of it by countries like Ireland in exchange for an (initial) extension that ends even earlier than May 22.

[Former President tack50]

So, kicking down the can and waiting a couple months for the same outcome? I guess this is relief but still there doesn't seem to be a solution for the Brexit mess.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The EU has rejected May's request for an Article 50 extension until June 30, saying May 22 (immediately before the beginning of the European Parliament elections) is the latest date für a withdrawal from the Europan Union. They're really playing hardball now:

[Silent Hunter]

They're carrying on discussing this over dinner. This could take a while.

[parochial boy]

So, kicking down the can and waiting a couple months for the same outcome? I guess this is relief but still there doesn't seem to be a solution for the Brexit mess.

That was my thought. How does this lead to anything except exactly the same situation at the end of April? It just makes the nightmare last that little bit longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

They're carrying on discussing this over dinner. This could take a while.

Delicious!

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1108821605952749568

[Middle-aged Europe]

'kay


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750

[jaichind]

'kay


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1108830556178079750

I guess she could not publicly say that her plan is pretty much to blackmail all non-hardliner Brexit MPs to vote for her plan since No Deal exit becomes the only alternative. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're now at "extension until May 22 if House of Commons approves deal next week, and until April 11 with the option of further extensions if the deal is voted down again".


https://twitter.com/gerardofortuna/status/1108835101977251863

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108840552722849793

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108840552722849793

Sounds like April 12th then.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, that gives us a bit more time for sanity to prevail.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, that gives us a bit more time for sanity to prevail.

You always were an optimist.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'm assuming that after the vote fails May will go for no deal. The question then is if enough Tory Remainers will bring her down in a vote of no confidence and if a new government can be formed to ask for a long term extension to A50, all before the deadline. I hope so, but who knows...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1108855848200257536