UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Helsinkian]

Apparently Rees-Mogg is now supporting May's deal.

[Helsinkian]

Independent Group is now called Change UK. I suppose the party's name is abbreviated to CUK.

https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1111583126424297472

[Helsinkian]

Independent Group is now called Change UK. I suppose the party's name is abbreviated to CUK.

So many questions:

1) How many CUK HOLDs will we see in the next election?

2) If Change UK forms an alliance with the Liberal Democrats, will the alliance members be called Lib Cuks or Cuk Dems?

3) If Soubry, Allen or Wollaston return to the Tories at some point will they be called Cukservatives?

[Helsinkian]

Well, today begins the countdown to attempt #4

I don’t think there will be another attempt. May’s deal is now completely dead. Even her promise of resigning didnt sway the ERG. Parliament will probably vote for an alternative on Monday. On April 10 there will be a EU council meeting. Most likely May will ask for a longer extension. Which also means the UK will participate in the EU elections in May.

If the UK is given a long extension (one year, two years, or even more) then I think Brexit is effectively dead. The negotiations will get nowhere, parliament will agree to nothing, and eventually there will be a second referendum which "Remain" will win, or article 50 is revoked in another way.

Or then it's a no-deal Brexit, but I doubt it.

[Helsinkian]

All four options in the indicative votes are rejected; customs union by only three votes, but we must remember that the cabinet were abstaining.

[Helsinkian]

So, after a seven hour cabinet meeting Theresa May said that she wants a short extension to leave with a deal. Not many specifics. The EU had earlier suggested that any further extension would have to be a longer one, but May does not want to take part in the EP elections.

[Helsinkian]

There was a motion to have further indicative votes next monday. The motion was tied 310-310. Speaker Bercow had the right to cast a tiebreaker and he did so to vote "no", arguing that it was not right for a Speaker to create a majority for a motion when one did not otherwise exist. The last time a Speaker got to cast a tiebreaker was apparently in 1993.

Edit: And the motion to debate Yvette Cooper's amendment (forcing May to ask for an extension) is passed by a majority of 1 vote...

Edit: The amendment itself passed also with 1 vote.

[Helsinkian]

VIENNA (Reuters) - There is currently “absolutely no reason” for another extension to Brexit because the situation in Britain’s parliament has not fundamentally changed, Austria’s Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said on Wednesday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-austria-extension/austria-sees-absolutely-no-reason-for-brexit-extension-idUKKCN1RF10Q

Under Article 50 rules, one member state opposing would be enough to deny the UK an extension. In practice, I doubt that such a big decision would be made in that way in the European Council.

[Helsinkian]

A YouGov poll has no deal Brexit at 51% when the choice is between that or remaining in the EU:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113822734465798144

[Helsinkian]

The question that Leavers are cherry-picking is "And if Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th
and the European Union refused to grant a further extension, what do you think should happen?" to which the answer was No Deal 44%, Remain 42%, Don't Know 13%.  Note that this is in the context of the EU refusing to grant an extension.

Replying with "don't know" is the equivalent of not voting; i.e. those people don't count.

[Helsinkian]

Sounds like 31 October could be the new date...

[Helsinkian]

UK will take part in the EP election. France demanded a "review" of the process in June as a part of the 31 October compromise; if the UK has not held the election, supposedly they will then be kicked out at that point. But May has already given the go-ahead for the EP election preparations.