WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Nathan Towne]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin. I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

[Nathan Towne]

Trump won West Virginia by 42.1 points in 2016 and is quite popular in the State. If he forcefully throws his support behind Morrissey in the Autumn and portrays Manchin as being largely an obstacle to the administrations agenda, this could end up being a very tough race for Manchin.I think that this race will be significantly influenced by how much pressure the President applies on him. If he really goes after him then I would not discount the possibility that Manchin will be defeated.

This point here is overrated. Look at what happened in PA-18. That district was more pro-Trump than the national average. In fact, IIRC, Trump was slightly above water. And it also had a high PVI in favor of the GOP. Trump campaigned a couple of times for Saccone and it still wasn't enough. In Michigan, Obama's approval rating on election day was 54-45. His approval in WI was 52-47. His approval was 51-48 in PA. This didn't stop Trump from edging out in all of those states that I listed above. Not sure if him campaigning more often would make such a difference.

I don't accept these arguments. That was a special election for a seat in the House, which is not nearly as consequential as it was for the Senate seat in Alabama, so turnout could play quite a significant role. In Alabama, Jones won by a very narrow margin over Roy Moore who was one of the worst candidates ever fielded in the history of the Republic. His record did not become clear until after the primary and thusly the party was stuck with him. These upcoming elections will be quite different. Turnout will be in line with mid-term averages, or higher, so that will not be a problem in the way than it has been in a number of these House Special elections.

[Nathan Towne]

Patrick Morrissey is a terrible candidate and will lose badly to Manchin by 15-20 points, at least!!

I am not sure how good a candidate he is yet. It is going to be a tough victory for him as West Virginia is a generally "pro-labour" State with the backlash against the Democratic party stemming from other issues; issues which Joe Manchin portrays himself as being strong on, i.e. gun rights, coal and mining e.t.c. It is certainly possible though and if Trump vocally advocates for the election of Morrissey, that will make it more difficult for Manchin to win.

[Nathan Towne]

A new poll was released on this race just the other day which was conducted by the Trafalgar Group. It can be found in full here:

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

The Trafalgar Group generally has a strong reputation as a polling organization, so these results are worth taking a look at.

Thus far, five polls have been assembled at RealClearPolitics on this race. They are as follows:

                                                                    Manchin Morrisey   Spread
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/13 - 7/16  1158 LV 2.9        50         40     Manchin +10
Monmouth 6/14 - 6/19                 527 LV 5.3          50         43     Manchin +7
Gravis 5/22 - 5/22                       543 LV 4.2          53         40     Manchin +13
WPAi (R) 5/10 - 5/10                   400 LV 4.9          44         46     Morrisey +2
MetroNews 8/11 - 8/20                400 LV 4.9          51         37     Manchin +14

These are the only polls for this race which I have come across thus far.

[Nathan Towne]

A new poll was released on this race just the other day which was conducted by the Trafalgar Group. It can be found in full here:

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

The Trafalgar Group generally has a strong reputation as a polling organization, so these results are worth taking a look at.

Thus far, five polls have been assembled at RealClearPolitics on this race. They are as follows:

                                                                    Manchin Morrisey   Spread
Trafalgar Group (R)* 7/13 - 7/16  1158 LV 2.9        50         40     Manchin +10
Monmouth 6/14 - 6/19                 527 LV 5.3          50         43     Manchin +7
Gravis 5/22 - 5/22                       543 LV 4.2          53         40     Manchin +13
WPAi (R) 5/10 - 5/10                   400 LV 4.9          44         46     Morrisey +2
MetroNews 8/11 - 8/20                400 LV 4.9          51         37     Manchin +14

These are the only polls for this race which I have come across thus far.

If those are your only five, then you didn't bother to do any searching:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018#Polling_3

I had not looked especially hard, but those were the only polls which I had seen.

[Nathan Towne]

At this point, MT and WV are solidly Dem-favored seats. The GOP is going to be hammering Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Nelson, especially the first two, with all of their strength.

On a different note, this is why I think the Dems' chances of taking the Senate are underrated this year. People parade the eye popping "ten Democrats in Trump states" statistic, but it's incredibly misleading. Baldwin, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow are almost completely safe at this point, often with double digit leads and better fundraising than their weak challengers. That's four of ten "vulnerable" seats. Manchin and Tester are strong favorites at this point against overrated busts of challengers, and at this rate I don't see them losing. That's another two of ten. McCaskill is up against lazy boi Hawley and has consistent, if hardly comfortable, leads in the polls. That's another slight Dem favorite. Rick Scott is blowing through money against Nelson, who's done little campaigning, and he's either trailing or has an inconsistent, tiny lead. Assuming Nelson, a battle tested incumbent, starts pumping up his campaign, he'll become a strong favorite. That's another Dem favorite.

All in all, Donnelly and Heitkamp are the only Dem incumbents I think would have much of a chance of losing if the election was held today. Even there, they'd probably only lose one, not both. Considering the three excellent Dem pickup opportunities in NV, AZ, and TN, I'm pretty confident the Dems have a much better chance to win the Senate than the 30% bulls*** you see on PredictIt.

I agree that both West Virginia and Montana must be characterized at this point as races that lean towards the incumbent to one degree or another. The race in Missouri is a bit less clear, but I would give Hawley a slight edge due to the nature of the State and the fact that I think that he will probably demonstrate himself to be a strong candidate in the upcoming race. McCaskill is by no means dead though and that race could end up being a very competitive one.

I classify both Heitkamp and Donnolly as being underdogs in their re-election bids. North Dakota and Indiana are States whose complexion is quite challenging for a Democrat at this point and unlike West Virginia which is an old-line "pro-labor" State that has drifted into the Republican column in National elections due to the stances of the Democratic Party on environmental issues, environmentalist business regulations, cap and trade, firearms and taxation, the nature of States like North Dakota and Indiana is somewhat different. Both States have gone to the Republican Presidential candidate in all but one Presidential election since 1968 (Indiana 2008) and their constituencies are quite different than the electorate of West Virginia. Donnelly defeated Mourdock, who inflicted tremendous damage to himself during the campaign, in the 2012 Senate race and if Braun runs a good campaign, he will have an edge. With North Dakota, as I have written elsewhere, I am not sure why Democrats are looking on that race with much optimism, to be honest.

There is no doubt that Dean Heller is facing a massive uphill fight in Nevada. Ron Johnson was facing one too in 2016 and pulled it out, but Trump also broke the wall in 2016 and won Wisconsin outright. Not so in Nevada. I would probably give Heller a better chance of winning that Mark Kirk had of winning re-election in Illinois in 2016, but not by that much. It is too bad because Heller is one of the nations better Senators, but such is the reality. His race is similar to Gardner's race coming up in two years. Good Senator, but a difficult race in order to attain re-election.

Sinema has the edge in Arizona right now. It will be interesting to see how that race plays out once a Republican candidate has been fielded.

The race in Tennessee is still a bit early for me. Bredesen is polling better than Blackburn is at the moment, but I don't have a good enough feel on it to tell you how substantive that polling lead will turn out to be. I have classified the race as a "lean Republican" race, but if the situation is not looking much better for her in a month or two, I will be forced to reexamine it.

[Nathan Towne]

I am hoping that this race continues to tighten over the next several weeks. Morrisey, while not enormously inspiring at first glance, is actually a very charismatic and energetic candidate who can play well to a crowd. His brief remarks at the rally held for by Trump last week demonstrated this quite clearly, I think. Manchin is definitely vulnerable in this race and I think that with a well run campaign Morrisey can beat him.

[Nathan Towne]

I am hoping that this race continues to tighten over the next several weeks. Morrisey, while not enormously inspiring at first glance, is actually a very charismatic and energetic candidate who can play well to a crowd. His brief remarks at the rally held for by Trump last week demonstrated this quite clearly, I think. Manchin is definitely vulnerable in this race and I think that with a well run campaign Morrisey can beat him.

This must be a joke.

No, not a joke at all.

[Nathan Towne]

The only time Morrissey is energetic is when dunken donuts has a buy 10 get 2 donuts free sale.

You know, it is actually interesting because I have noticed that there really are not very many congressmen who are noticably on the heavier side. Off of the top of my head I cannot think of anyone in the Senate, for instance, who is quite heavy. Trump is not the thinnest man in the world and he is obviously President, but he is not heavily overweight either. There are examples at the State level, but fewer in Congress. Representative Farenthold was a bit on the heavy side, but it does seem to be something uncommon for those in Congress.