UK local by-elections, 2024

[YL]

Thursday 8 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Blaenau Gwent; Ebbw Vale South

Ind Millard 239 (60.4%, +37.9)
Lab 124 (31.3%, +6.5)
Green 33 (8.3%, new)
(changes from 2022 “top vote” counting independents separately, so as usual take them with a bit of a pinch of salt)

Ind Millard gain from Ind Bainton, who joined Labour shortly after being elected; ward now 1 Ind, 1 Lab

Gwynedd; Criccieth

Plaid 381 (71.9%, +30.4)
Ind Allport 129 (24.3%, new)
Lib Dem 11 (2.1%, new)
Con 9 (1.7%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Plaid gain from Ind

Cheshire East; Crewe Central

Con 335 (43.3%, +19.9)
Lab 277 (35.8%, -18.9)
Putting Crewe First 128 (16.5%, +1.1)
Women's Equality 22 (2.8%, new)
Green 12 (1.6%, new)

(changes from 2023)

Con gain from Lab

West Northamptonshire; East Hunsbury & Shelfleys

Lib Dem 820 (38.8%, +15.8)
Con 746 (35.3%, -16.9)
Lab 547 (25.9%, +1.2)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem

[YL]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

[TheTide]

Labour was seemingly derailed in Crewe.

[CumbrianLefty]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

[YL]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

I also suspect that Crewe is prone to feeling ignored by the council. It feels like the sort of place which is not very well served by the big unitary model, especially the way it's been implemented in Cheshire which throws it into an oddly drawn council area dominated by prosperous outer Mancunia.

[Tintrlvr]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

I also suspect that Crewe is prone to feeling ignored by the council. It feels like the sort of place which is not very well served by the big unitary model, especially the way it's been implemented in Cheshire which throws it into an oddly drawn council area dominated by prosperous outer Mancunia.

The Tory candidate was local while the Labour candidate was from Nantwich, which might have contributed.

[YL]

Thursday 15 February

Andrew Teale's previews (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Kingston upon Hull; Avenue

Lib Dem 1186 (45.7%, +9.7 on 2023, +4.3 on 2022, -1.2 on 2021)
Lab 1029 (39.7%, -11.3 on 2023, -8.3 on 2022, +5.1 on 2021)
Green 198 (7.6%, -2.5 on 2023, no change on 2022, -2.1 on 2021)
Ind Whale 139 (5.4%, new)
Con 43 (1.7%, -1.2 on 2023, -1.2 on 2022, -3.3 on 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab

Neath Port Talbot; Briton Ferry East

Lab 287 (52.4%, +8.1)
Ind Pemberton 234 (42.7%, new)
Green 27 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from Ind

Neath Port Talbot; Rhos

Ind Woolford 494 (52.1%, new)
Plaid 242 (25.5%, -29.2)
Lab 137 (14.5%, -30.8)
Lib Dem 60 (6.3%, new)
Green 15 (1.6%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind Woolford gain from Plaid

Dacorum; Tring West & Rural

Lib Dem 899 (62.7%, +12.8)
Con 303 (21.1%, -3.0)
Green 122 (8.5%, -9.6)
Lab 109 (7.6%, -0.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

East Hampshire; Four Marks & Medstead

Lib Dem 1212 (62.2%, +18.9)
Con 736 (37.8%, -2.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Briton Ferry was the first Labour local byelection gain of 2024.

[Duke of York]

8 local by elections tomorrow. surprised there has been no writeup from Andrew Teale yet

[YL]

Thursday 22 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Buckinghamshire; Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches

Con 860 (51.8%, +0.9)
Lib Dem 689 (41.5%, +9.8)
Lab 111 (6.7%, -7.1)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

Buckinghamshire; Hazlemere

Con 687 (36.5%, -5.6)
Ind Casey 653 (34.8%, new)
Lib Dem 426 (22.7%, +13.1)
Lab 113 (6.0%, -3.2)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

Wiltshire; Calne Chilvester & Abberd

Lib Dem 424 (45.3%, +18.1)
Con 283 (30.2%, -16.8)
Lab 172 (18.4%, +3.7)
Green 58 (6.2%, -5.0)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Milton Keynes; Loughton & Shenley

Lab 1136 (46.2%, -2.3 on 2023, -5.7 on 2022, -2.4 on 2021)
Con 971 (39.5%, +0.9 on 2023, +1.7 on 2022, -2.9 on 2021)
Lib Dem 179 (7.3%, -0.4 on 2023, +1.7 on 2022, +2.7 on 2021)
Green 113 (4.6%, -0.6 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, +0.1 on 2021)
Ind Brady 61 (2.5%, new)

Lab hold

Scottish Borders; Jedburgh & District

First preferences:
Con 1377 (58.5%, +8.2)
SNP 410 (17.4%, -5.7)
Lab 241 (10.2%, new)
Lib Dem 166 (7.1%, new)
Green 135 (5.7%, -1.4)
Scottish Eco-Federalist 25 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Con gain fron SNP on first preferences; ward now 3 Con

Derbyshire Dales; Bakewell

Lab 467 (37.7%, +13.8)
Con 452 (36.5%, -9.5)
Lib Dem 161 (13.0%, +4.9)
Green 73 (5.9%, -12.7)
Reform UK 50 (4.0%, new)
Ind Elnaugh 36 (2.9%, -5.1)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con; ward now 1 Lab 1 Con

Derbyshire Dales; Norbury

Con 317 (63.1%, -4.2)
Lab 75 (14.9%, -1.9)
Green 65 (12.9%, -3.0)
Lib Dem 45 (9.0%, new)

Con hold

Folkestone & Hythe; Romney Marsh

Con 375 (24.2%, +0.2)
Green 332 (21.4%, +8.2)
Lab 295 (19.0%, -0.8)
Reform UK 237 (15.3%, new)
Ind Peacock 155 (10.0%, new)
Ind Evans 62 (4.0%, new)
Ind Meyers 51 (3.3%, -13.4)
Ind Young 31 (2.0%, -0.2)
Lib Dem 11 (0.7%, -5.3)

Con hold

[YL]

I checked yesterday and I don't think Labour have ever won Bakewell before.

Possibly a little disappointing for the Lib Dems in Buckinghamshire, though obviously not in Wiltshire.

[CumbrianLefty]

In reality, the "new" Indy in Bucks was slightly down on last time when they took 1 of the 3 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Romney Marsh I think offers the first example of Reform UK actually having a presence in local elections  somewhat in line with polling, similar to the previous parliamentary By-Elections. On one hand this should be extremely favorable turf, since this was old UKIP territory and they held these wards even for a bit after their fall. On the other, well, some of the Independents were also inside their theoretical 'lane.'

[Torrain]

This may well be unionist confirmation bias talking. But my skepticism about that Mirror MRP polling predicting a Scottish Tory wipeout is deepened by results in the Borders like this.

I mean, if they’re still winning wards like Jedburgh by 40%, while the SNP vote falls back, it’s very hard to see the Roxburgh seat as all that vulnerable.

The Galloway seat, West Aberdeenshire - could be real fights if the SNP plan to offset expected losses in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Fife, rather than go on the defensive. But Roxburgh, and Banff and Buchan seem like they’ve got some breathing room.

_{(Requisite disclaimer - Jedburgh is a Tory ward, and 2/3 councillors were already Conservatives. This was likely going to result in a Tory win, because STV can’t save the SNP in an FPTP by-election, and the Tory candidate was a former independent with a strong personal vote when he ran in 2022. Any commentary is based on the scale of the win, in the face of reduced conservative numbers in Scotland-specific polling)}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mrs Girvan: You forgot your sandwich again, Mr Jedburrah.

Darius Jedburgh: Mrs Girvan, mince between two slices of white bread is not my idea of LUNCH. Hell, I'd rather eat the damned Bible.

Mrs Girvan: (outraged) Mr Jedburrah!

Darius Jedburgh: (heading up the stairs) Jed-BURG!

[YL]

This may well be unionist confirmation bias talking. But my skepticism about that Mirror MRP polling predicting a Scottish Tory wipeout is deepened by results in the Borders like this. .

I mean, if they’re still winning wards like Jedburgh by 40%, while the SNP vote falls back, it’s very hard to see the Roxburgh seat as all that vulnerable.

The Galloway seat, West Aberdeenshire - could be real fights if the SNP plan to offset expected losses in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Fife, rather than go on the defensive. But Roxburgh, and Banff and Buchan seem like they’ve got some breathing room.

_{(Requisite disclaimer - Jedburgh is a Tory ward, and 2/3 councillors were already Conservatives. This was likely going to result in a Tory win, because STV can’t save the SNP in an FPTP by-election, and the Tory candidate was a former independent with a strong personal vote when he ran in 2022. Any commentary is based on the scale of the win, in the face of reduced conservative numbers in Scotland-specific polling)}

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

[Alcibiades]

This may well be unionist confirmation bias talking. But my skepticism about that Mirror MRP polling predicting a Scottish Tory wipeout is deepened by results in the Borders like this. .

I mean, if they’re still winning wards like Jedburgh by 40%, while the SNP vote falls back, it’s very hard to see the Roxburgh seat as all that vulnerable.

The Galloway seat, West Aberdeenshire - could be real fights if the SNP plan to offset expected losses in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Fife, rather than go on the defensive. But Roxburgh, and Banff and Buchan seem like they’ve got some breathing room.

_{(Requisite disclaimer - Jedburgh is a Tory ward, and 2/3 councillors were already Conservatives. This was likely going to result in a Tory win, because STV can’t save the SNP in an FPTP by-election, and the Tory candidate was a former independent with a strong personal vote when he ran in 2022. Any commentary is based on the scale of the win, in the face of reduced conservative numbers in Scotland-specific polling)}

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

The Jean Charest of Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

[DL]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Saint John was never even a Tory stronghold. It was always a swing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Saint John was never even a Tory stronghold. It was always a swing

Exactly! If a Canada '93 situation were to somehow occur (and as the Canadian House of Commons is a lot smaller than the British one so two seats would translate to about four and a half) then the list of last survivors would likely also be distinctly odd.

[Continential]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Looking forward to the two Tory seats being Leicester East and Harrow East.

[adma]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Saint John was never even a Tory stronghold. It was always a swing

Exactly! If a Canada '93 situation were to somehow occur (and as the Canadian House of Commons is a lot smaller than the British one so two seats would translate to about four and a half) then the list of last survivors would likely also be distinctly odd.

Another detail that helped Elsie Wayne in '93, one that's been lost in the sands of time: the '88 Lib candidate ran as an independent, getting over 10% of the vote.  Combined, the "united Liberal" vote outpolled Elsie by just under a point, if one seeks to make a "Kingswood argument" on behalf of the Libs here...

[CumbrianLefty]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Looking forward to the two Tory seats being Leicester East and Harrow East.

Well, one of them being a *gain* would be a true "chef's kiss" moment

[adma]

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, one of them being a *gain* would be a true "chef's kiss" moment

Right now, I am unironically more concerned about the outcome there than in multiple constituencies where Labour lost by more than 20pts in 2019...