UK local by-elections, 2024

[JimJamUK]

Does nearly 10% for Propel in Cardiff surprise anyone else?

Not too much. They are essentially a personality cult and have some campaigning capacity, which they’ve presumably been able to focus on this ward unlike in 2022 when it was holding McEvoy’s seat.

[YL]

Ballot Box Scotland has the transfers from Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...Friockheim?!?! Ah, I see it was one of those odd planned 19th century industrial villages that Scotland has a surprisingly large number of, thus the highly peculiar name.

[YL]

...Friockheim?!?! Ah, I see it was one of those odd planned 19th century industrial villages that Scotland has a surprisingly large number of, thus the highly peculiar name.

Apparently it's a compound of Gaelic fraoch (heather) and German heim.

[YL]

I think recent Scottish local byelections have pretty accurately shown the SNP's decline from previous electoral domination, but I do still suspect they show the Tories doing a bit better than they are likely to in a Westminster election - where Sunak's mob are currently no better regarded than in England.

I think there's evidence of a fairly high "neither SNP nor Tory" vote for an area where politics has been a contest between the two for some time: note the decent increases for both Labour and the Lib Dems, albeit from a low base, and the high rate of exhaustion when the Labour candidate was eliminated.

What that vote will do in a General Election is I think an unknown. It might end up just going Labour or Lib Dem, leading to the potential for either the Tories or SNP to win seats on low vote shares.  (Though this actual ward will be in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, which is essentially the successor to Dundee East and not a likely Tory seat; the Election Maps UK nowcast has Labour in second there.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Quick rundown for local byelections on 2nd May in those areas that did not have council elections on at the same time - they are grouped by the defending party (Tories/Lab/LibDem/Green in that order)

Amber Valley DC, Crich and South Wingfield - C hold
Bournemouth/Christchurch/Poole UA, Canford Cliffs - C hold
Bromley UA, Shortlands and Park Langley - C hold
Camden UA, Frognal - C hold
Croydon UA, Park Hill and Whitgift - C hold
E Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - C hold
Essex CC, Harlow SE - C hold
Hampshire CC, Fareham Salisbury - C hold
Hampshire CC, Meon Valley - Grn gain from C
Hillingdon UA, Hillingdon E - C hold
Huntingdonshire DC, Great Paxton - LD gain from C
Kensington and Chelsea UA, Norland - C hold
Leicestershire CC, Burbage - LD gain from C
S Derbyshire DC, Melbourne - C hold
S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
Worcestershire CC, Evesham NW - C hold

Birmingham UA, Bournbrook and Selly Park - Lab hold
Brighton and Hove UA, Kemptown - Lab hold
Brighton and Hove UA, Queens Park - Lab hold
Broxtowe DC, Attleborough and Chilwell E - Lab hold
Charnwood DC, Loughborough E - Lab hold
Chester W and Chester UA, Wolverham - Lab hold
Croydon UA, Woodside - Lab hold
Durham UA, Horden - Lab hold
Hackney UA, de Beauvoir - Lab hold
Hackney UA, Hoxton E and Shoreditch - Lab hold
Hounslow UA, Brentford W - Lab hold
Islington UA, Hillrise - Lab hold
Lambeth UA, Knights Hill - Lab hold
Lambeth UA, Streatham Common and Vale - Lab hold
Lancaster DC, Carnforth and Millhead - Lab hold
Lewisham UA, Deptford - Lab hold
Lincolnshire CC, Park - Lab hold
NW Leicestershire DC, Snibston S - Lab hold
S Gloucestershire UA, New Cheltenham - Lab hold
Stoke on Trent UA, Meir N - Lab hold
Sutton UA, St Helier W - C gain from Lab
Wandsworth DC, W Putney - C gain from Lab
Warwick DC, Leamington Clarendon - Lab hold

Bedford UA, Riverfield - LD hold
Breckland DC, Hermitage - C gain from LD
Somerset UA, Mendip S - LD hold
Teignbridge DC, Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - LD hold
Waverley DC, Witley and Milford., LD hold
W Devon DC, Tavistock N - LD hold
Westmorland and Furness UA, Grange and Cartmel - LD hold

Mid Suffolk DC, Chilton - Grn hold
Torridge DC, Bideford N - LD gain from Grn

Phew

[Tintrlvr]

Quick summary of the changes:

2 LD gain from Con
2 Green gain from Con
2 Con gain from Lab
1 Con gain from LD
1 LD gain from Green

So net 2 LD gains, 1 Green gain, 2 Lab losses, 1 Con loss.

Relevance of each change:

Hampshire CC, Meon Valley - Grn gain from C
- Tories hold a large majority on Hampshire CC since the 2021 local elections. Meon Valley is in the solidly LD-held Winchester DC, although the county council seat also includes a local Green hot-spot, and the by-election was three-cornered. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat, with the LDs second and the Tories falling to third. This is the only Green seat on Hampshire County Council.

Huntingdonshire DC, Great Paxton - LD gain from C
- The Tories lost control of Huntingdonshire DC for the first time in the 2022 local elections. The Tories are still the largest party, but the council is heavily split. The local government is a coalition of the LDs and Independents. This shores up the LD-led coalition.

Leicestershire CC, Burbage - LD gain from C
- The Tories have a large majority on Leicestershire CC after the 2021 local elections. The LDs are the main opposition but lost significant ground in 2021. This seat was close in 2021.

S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
- The Tories narrowly retained control of S Norfolk DC in the 2023 local elections with the LDs and Labour both having substantial local presences. With this by-election loss, the Tories have lost control of the council; it's unclear if a coalition of all opposition parties will be able to take control. This is the first and only Green seat in South Norfolk and looked quite safe for the Tories even in 2023. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat (Labour was a distant second in 2023).

Sutton BC, St Helier W - C gain from Lab
- The LDs have controlled Sutton BC since 1990 but have had falling majorities recently, losing seats in both 2018 and 2022 to the Tories. Labour won their first seats in Sutton since the early 2000s in the 2022 local elections, two seats in another ward and this single seat in a three-seater ward. This ward, which went 1 Lab-2 Con, was a tight three-way battle in 2022 (the third-placed LDs still won about 30% of the vote). In this by-election, the Labour vote collapsed and they fell to a distant third; the LDs came just 8 votes short of the Tories.

Wandsworth BC, W Putney - C gain from Lab
- Labour famously finally won control of Wandsworth BC in the 2022 local elections. This seat was very tight, going 2 Lab-1 Con. The Tories won the by-election on a small swing, and must be happy to still feel in contention in a council they really should have become irrelevant in a long time ago.

Breckland DC, Hermitage - C gain from LD
- Breckland DC has a large Tory majority even after the 2023 local elections. This was the only LD seat on the council. The LDs fell 21 votes short of retaining the seat. The new Tory councillor is a former prominent UKIP figure, Robin Hunter-Clarke.

Torridge DC, Bideford N - LD gain from Grn
- Torridge DC has been led by an independent group since the 2019 local elections; the group lost their majority but continued to govern after the 2023 local elections. The LDs are the largest opposition and made major gains from the Tories in the 2023 local elections. This seat split 1 Green-1 LD-1 Ind at the 2023 local elections, with the Green far ahead of everyone else. The Greens seem to have collapsed without their popular incumbent, falling to third behind the winning LDs and the Labour candidate, who edged the Greens out for second by 2 votes. There were two independent candidates but neither did well, suggesting to me that neither was associated with the governing local independent group.

In short: Only the South Norfolk and Huntingdonshire results really matter much for local government, although the Wandsworth result is slightly meaningful as well in the sense that it shows the Tories are maybe not gone forever there and have potential to come back once they are out of power at Westminster.

[YL]

S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
- The Tories narrowly retained control of S Norfolk DC in the 2023 local elections with the LDs and Labour both having substantial local presences. With this by-election loss, the Tories have lost control of the council; it's unclear if a coalition of all opposition parties will be able to take control. This is the first and only Green seat in South Norfolk and looked quite safe for the Tories even in 2023. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat (Labour was a distant second in 2023).

This ward is in the new cross-border Waveney Valley constituency, which is a Green target.

[MaxQue]

S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
- The Tories narrowly retained control of S Norfolk DC in the 2023 local elections with the LDs and Labour both having substantial local presences. With this by-election loss, the Tories have lost control of the council; it's unclear if a coalition of all opposition parties will be able to take control. This is the first and only Green seat in South Norfolk and looked quite safe for the Tories even in 2023. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat (Labour was a distant second in 2023).

This ward is in the new cross-border Waveney Valley constituency, which is a Green target.

The Green also won a county by-election in the area covered by the ward a few months ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the Wandsworth result was significantly down to a specific local (planning) issue - perhaps we shouldn't read too much into it regarding Labour's chances of re-election in 2026.

[YL]

Not that many for the next few weeks.

Thursday 9 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Ballot Box Scotland's preview

North Ayrshire; Kilwinning

Lab
SNP
Con
Lib Dem
Scottish Family Party