New 2018 Senate control rating?

[Xing]

Safe R -> Likely R. Democrats need to run the table completely to take the Senate by a hair, but since they actually have a plausible path now, Likely R is a better rating than Safe R.

[UncleSam]

Still think it's likely R but closer to lean than safe now.

If you didn't include a 50/50 as majority then it's lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

Seeing as the Senate will be 51/49 R, the result hinges on whether Democrats can make the two gains necessary, Arizona and Nevada, without losing any of their seats, to make it 51/49 D. Tough, but now within the realm of possibility.

[BlueSwan]

Safe R -> Likely R. Democrats need to run the table completely to take the Senate by a hair, but since they actually have a plausible path now, Likely R is a better rating than Safe R.

This.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Safe R -> Likely R. Democrats need to run the table completely to take the Senate by a hair, but since they actually have a plausible path now, Likely R is a better rating than Safe R.

This.

[junior chįmp]

Senate's gonna flip D

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Remember how much the very serious people laughed at the idea of Democrats taking back the Senate in 2006? In waves, the winning party wins a huge percent of the races. Look at 2014, the Republicans picked up seats that were supposed to be easy Democratic wins, they won 9/10 of competitive races. In 2006, Democrats won 6/7 competitive races, it is certainly possible in 2018.

[The Other Castro]

It is Likely R if Moore wins, but Toss-Up if Jones wins. Since I consider the Alabama race a tossup right now, I'll average them out and say Lean R overall.

Toss-Up

[NewYorkExpress]

Moves from Likely R to Tossup. If Democrats maintain this enthusiasm, they will knock off Heller and Cruz, plus win in Arizona, and I think they now have an outside shot in Tennessee. They can survive losing one of their vulnerable Senators (which will probably be either Heitkamp, McCaskill or Manchin, with Donnelly being highly vulnerable, but slightly safer due to just how nasty the GOP primary in Indiana is right now).

[King Lear]

I say it goes from Safe R to Likely R, the pathway to a Democratic majority is to hold all their vulnerable senate seats and pickup Nevada and Arizona. This is a much easier pathway then before jones won Alabama, however democrats cannot get complacent because they still have to defend 5 double-digit trump seats along with closely contested seats in Florida and Ohio.

[Vern]

Its a toss-up, like it has always been. I honestly think it will be a wash. Republicans will pick-up a few seats and the democrats will pick up a few seats.

[IceSpear]

Safe R -> Likely R. Democrats need to run the table completely to take the Senate by a hair, but since they actually have a plausible path now, Likely R is a better rating than Safe R.

This.

[windjammer]

Lean rep, I would move to toss up if there is an AZ special election

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Safe R --> Likely R (since there now is a plausible, but very difficult, path for the Democrats)

[BuckeyeNut]

Let us remember that Democrats lost no federal elections in 2006.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Likely R (but on the verge of Safe) to Likely R (but on the verge of Lean).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Let us remember that Democrats lost no federal elections in 2006.

WV,ND, IN and MO was bad for Democrats then, but polarization has gotten much worse. Democrats are now basically the 'anti white' party in huge swathes of Red America.

[SWE]

Tossup

[Dr. MB]

I predict Tossup. I think Nevada's Lean D and Arizona is Tilt D, but it all depends on Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota.

[King Lear]

Safe R to Likely R, The path to a democratic majority involves picking up the Nevada and Arizona seats while holding all their vulnerable seats, this is a much easier path to a majority then that which existed before jones won, however If democrats get overconfident they could still potentially lose their five double-digit trump seats and the highly competitive seats in Ohio and Florida.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I voted Safe R in the previous polls, but now it looks as if it's Lean R at best for Rs. I could definitely see them holding all of their states and winning AL, NV and AZ (maybe also UT), though I think Republicans will pick up at least 1 Democratic-held seat (perhaps WV).

Tossup now. This Senate map seems to be cursed for Republicans.

Best-case D scenario: 54 D, 46 R (Democrats hold all of their seats and gain NV, AZ, MS, TX and TN)
Best-case R scenario: 55 R, 45 D (Republicans lose NV and AZ and gain WV, IN, MO and three of OH/MT/FL/PA)

So, Martha McSally is so toxic that she turns a Lean R state into a Safe D state?

[Illiniwek]

Safe R -> Likely R. Democrats need to run the table completely to take the Senate by a hair, but since they actually have a plausible path now, Likely R is a better rating than Safe R.

This.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I voted Safe R in the previous polls, but now it looks as if it's Lean R at best for Rs. I could definitely see them holding all of their states and winning AL, NV and AZ (maybe also UT), though I think Republicans will pick up at least 1 Democratic-held seat (perhaps WV).

Tossup now. This Senate map seems to be cursed for Republicans.

Best-case D scenario: 54 D, 46 R (Democrats hold all of their seats and gain NV, AZ, MS, TX and TN)
Best-case R scenario: 55 R, 45 D (Republicans lose NV and AZ and gain WV, IN, MO and three of OH/MT/FL/PA)

So, Martha McSally is so toxic that she turns a Lean R state into a Safe D state?

You act as if the GOP is going to nominate McSally instead of white-grievance mongering Chemtrail KKKelli. Strange.

It's possible they nominate Kelli, but he phrased this as the best-case scenario. Best-case means literally everything that has even a slight chance of going in Republicans favor goes in Republicans favor.

[TheSaint250]

Tossup/Tilt R

Missouri is the be-all end-all imo, especially if Arizona goes to the Democrats

[MT Treasurer]

It's possible they nominate Kelli, but he phrased this as the best-case scenario. Best-case means literally everything that has even a slight chance of going in Republicans favor goes in Republicans favor.

Yeah, I wasn't sure about AZ, but it's hard to see the Republicans holding the state given that it only went for Trump by 3. Also, McSally is incredibly overrated.